MLB Division Preview: NL West

The last of the divisions to analyze is the National League West where things have gotten a lot tighter amongst the top teams. This offseason has seen the Diamondbacks vault to the top of the race with their acquisitions of top-notch pitching, the Giants add two starters to their core, and the Dodgers lose one key pitcher that happened to take his talents to a division rival. This division is sure to be competitive and the top three teams all have realistic shots at winning the division and are as strong as any other than the top three in the National League Central (Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals). The Diamondbacks are the offseason winner and the Dodgers are an offseason loser, but we will see how that works out for them as winning the offseason on paper rarely works out.

(Note: Teams in order of finish in 2015)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Top Offseason Move: Signing SP Scott Kazmir

After losing Zack Greinke to the division rival Diamondbacks the Dodgers responded by signing Kazmir and Kenta Maeda to help fill out the rotation. The signing of Kazmir makes sense and I like it because of the amount of pitcher-friendly parks he will pitch in and his propensity for fly balls. The move was a necessity because they were really lacking after their staff ace and the league’s best pitcher Clayton Kershaw, the depth was very thin.

Key Departure: SP Zack Greinke

The biggest loss for a team in the offseason was without a doubt Greinke leaving Los Angeles. Going into the offseason everyone knew he would get paid, but very few saw any team other than the Dodgers as willing and able to pay him what he wanted. This loss really stings because of his durability, consistency, and production gave the Dodgers a one-two punch that could take the pressure off a sagging offense for the playoffs.

X-Factor: SP Kenta Maeda

I mentioned Kazmir already, but Maeda is the wild card and x-factor here. He has shown good stuff in Japan, but the scouts seem to think he is a back-end of the rotation type guy who they question if he will stay healthy over the course of a full season. The contract protects the Dodgers from him suffering a serious elbow injury through incentives. If Maeda can be a steady guy and give them innings and keep an ERA in the low threes, the Dodgers will have a good chance at a playoff spot.

Pitching Staff Rank: 4th

This staff could be better than this ranking, but looking at their depth chart there are too many questions on if everyone will stay healthy. Brett Anderson is already expected to miss 3-5 months, Hyun-Jin Ryu is due back in May, but just had shoulder surgery, and Kazmir has had problems staying healthy in the past. This team has a lot of questions about durability that need to be answered or it could sink their season.

Lineup Rank: 3rd

This lineup is still going to produce and will be a tough lineup to face on a nightly basis. The improvements from Joc Pederson after his rookie season should be noticeable and he should get on base at a higher clip this year. They also should have an improvement with Corey Seager taking over as the full-time shortstop as well as with the expected improvement of Yasiel Puig.

San Francisco Giants

Top Offseason Move: Signing SP Jeff Samardzija

I know the Giants signed Johnny Cueto, but I am not really a big Cueto fan. Cueto had a lot of trouble in Kansas City and really did nothing to dispel notions of his deteriorating stuff. With Samardzija now getting a chance to work with the Giants staff, who have done a good job with helping pitchers through rough patches, they have a chance to reign in his stuff and pitch to his potential. They also have an extremely friendly pitcher’s park to help him.

Key Departure: SP Tim Hudson

Another team that did not lose much this offseason, but they did lose the veteran Tim Hudson, who decided to call it a career despite having a lot of success the past few years in San Francisco. They definitely did well replacing him, but unlike their two signings for the rotation, Hudson had tremendous consistency.

X-Factor: SP Johnny Cueto

I mentioned above that Cueto struggled with the Royals on their World Series run, but there is still a chance he can regain his form from earlier in the season and from in the past and pitch to an elite level. Even if he pitched a notch below what he has done in the past that would still be enough for him to pitch the Giants into the playoffs.

Pitching Staff Rank: 1st

This staff has an impressive group of names in it and as usual, they should be the guiding force for them to make the playoffs. Matt Cain is still having problems finding his old form and Jake Peavy is not what he used to be, but they both possess the potential to be guys who post ERA’s in the mid threes as back-end of the rotation starters, which signifies how deep this team’s rotation is this year.

Lineup Rank: 2nd

This lineup is one of the better lineups the Giants have had in a while with their younger guys coming off tremendous seasons. The key will be for Matt Duffy and Joe Panik to continue to produce like they did last year, and for their outfield to stay healthy. Hunter Pence and free agent signee Denard Span are very important for this team’s offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Top Offseason Move: Signing SP Zack Greinke

Similar to the Cubs, no team improved more than the Diamondbacks in this division and aside from the Cubs, no team really improved as much as the Diamondbacks in the National League. Signing Greinke is a huge move for the team as it gives them a legitimate ace for the playoffs and to make sure they have no long-term losing streaks. They paid to get him, but Greinke has never relied on velocity and with his intelligence and dedication he should age well.

Key Departure: OF Ender Inciarte, SS prospect Dansby Swanson

As good as the Greinke signing was I didn’t like the Shelby Miller trade. The Diamondbacks do acquire a young pitcher who has done extremely well since coming up from the Cardinals system, but the amount they gave up to get him was way too much. Inciarte and Swanson are critical to a team like the Diamondbacks continuing to put a winning product on the field and they will feel those losses in the near future.

X-Factor: SP Patrick Corbin

After Greinke and Miller, Corbin is the next pitcher in line in the rotation and he pitched well last year coming off surgery the previous year. If Corbin can give them innings again and pitch at the level he is capable of pitching at this team could feature a scary trio at the top of their rotation. If he goes back to his old form, he would move into the second slot in the rotation.

Pitching Staff Rank: 2nd

This staff has three very good pitchers who when they are all right, can match any team. Corbin is the key one as he really needs to bounce back to his old self and continue to give them innings. It is also important to at the very least get innings from Rubby De La Rosa and Robbie Ray. If one of them can pitch above expectations, this division looks ripe for the taking.

Lineup Rank: 1st

Anchored by one of the best hitters in all of baseball the Diamondbacks have an underrated offense to match their upgrades on the rotation. Paul Goldschmidt is one of the best hitters in the game, A.J. Pollock is incredibly underrated, and Yasmany Tomas has a lot of potential in there that I think he will unlock this year. This lineup is the best of the bunch and is mainly due to the best first baseman in the game.

San Diego Padres

Top Offseason Move: Signing SS Alexei Ramirez

After acquiring a number of high-end players last year the Padres decided to step back and sell off some of their parts, but still managed to sign a new shortstop in former White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez has not been the same player recently and I am not sure how this will pan out. Defensively he is average at best and he doesn’t walk very often. He also struggles to hit for average, but at just four million on a one year deal, it seems like a reasonable gamble.

Key Departure: OF Justin Upton

The Padres sold off a lot of parts, but the biggest one to me was Upton. Upton had a very good year last year and turned that into a big contract with the Tigers. The Padres will certainly miss his bat in their lineup this year as their offense seems poised once again to be near the bottom of the league.

X-Factor: SP James Shields

Shields signed a big deal before last season and immediately was on the block in San Diego. This year Shields is back and his contract doesn’t look as bad as it did a year ago. If Shields can pitch up to what he has done in his career then he will help this team tremendously by giving them a very good trade chip and a guy to front your rotation.

Pitching Staff Rank: 3rd

This staff has some very live arms in it with Tyson Ross, Shields, and Andrew Cashner in it. However Cashner has had trouble staying on the field with health problems despite his live arm. Ross and Shields are a good start up front, but the questions in the back-end and with Cashner’s health make this a middle of the road staff.

Lineup Rank: 5th

It is impossible to mince words here. This lineup is not very good. They are counting on bounce back seasons from Wil Myers, Ramirez, and Matt Kemp, as well as production from Melvin Upton Jr. and Jon Jay. Jay was a solid pickup and should be fine in left, but this team has little lineup depth and the middle of their lineup has little bite to it.

Colorado Rockies

Top Offseason Move: RP Jake McGee

There were a lot of questions this offseason on if the Rockies would trade either Carlos Gonzalez or Nolan Arenado to try to rebuild their system. They also got calls on Charlie Blackmon, but moved Corey Dickerson instead for reliever Jake McGee. McGee is a very good reliever who can get both righties and lefties out and throws a very good fastball. McGee was a solid pickup for this team to help their bullpen.

Key Departure: OF Corey Dickerson 

Losing Corey Dickerson is not a huge deal considering the other talent they have in their outfield. Dickerson is a pretty good player, but if given the choice between him Blackmon and Gonzalez, I think they made the right choice. The defense should also be fine with the signing of Gerardo Parra taking over in left.

X-Factor: SP Jon Gray

Colorado has a lot of trouble attracting free agent starting pitchers to come and pitch for them considering the pitcher friendly park and atmosphere they pitch. That is what makes the development of Gray so important. Gray was drafted number two overall and has shown a big time fastball, but struggled when given his cup of coffee. If Gray can develop and regain his fastball command and movement the Rockies could have a very solid starter under control for a while.

Pitching Staff Rank: 5th

As mentioned above this team has a lot of trouble attracting free agent starting pitchers because of the high amount of home runs hit in their stadium. This team really lacks good pitching with Jorge De La Rosa, who posted an ERA over four, being their number one starter. They have a lot of question marks with younger arms in their rotation meaning it could be a long year for the Rockies.

Lineup Rank: 3rd

Unlike the pitching staff the Rockies have not had a problem getting good offensive production and this year is no different. This team should have one of the better offenses in the division and a top 10 offense in baseball potentially. Gonzalez, Blackmon, last year’s MVP candidate Arenado, and second baseman D.J. LeMahieu who showed he could hit for average. Arenado is a big time player and if this team can somehow surprise and stay in the race, he could win an MVP eventually.

Projected Division Finish:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

2. San Francisco Giants

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

4. Colorado Rockies

5. San Diego Padres

 

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