So what do we make of 1st round draft pick(2012) 24-year-old(soon to be 25 in March), first baseman, Matt Olson? The Oakland Athletics are all in as they have paved the way for him to be the everyday first baseman.(Yonder Alonso shipped to Cleveland/Ryon Healy to Seattle).That’s putting a lot of confidence in Olson, Alonso had an all-star type year, and Healy has shown promise early in his career.
This is early on in Olson’s career as he is just getting started, we don’t have much statistical analysis to go off of, but last year was very impressive, how should he be drafted, where should he be ranked among first baseman?
In my opinion, t would be fun to grab him a little earlier then what he is valued at. We don’t really know how his crazy power numbers will look like in a full 162 game slate. We just can’t ignore the 24 homers he hit in just 65 games. I’ve compiled a set of pros and cons to get a closer look.
Pros:
Ranked 6th on statcast leaderboard(baseballsavant.com)metrics used-barrels, exit velocity, batted ball distance, launch angle, bb events. Ahead of him is some pretty good company; J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo, Khris Davis
Out of 313 hitters who put 50 hard hit balls in play here are the top 5 in weighted on base average..Michael Conforto .961, Eric Thame .966, Giancarlo Stanton .976, J.D.Martinez .982, and finally at numbero uno, at a whopping 1.046, Matty Olson!
Final stats for the season are for only 189 plate appearances, but a great approach has been shown along with the massive power, .352 OBP/ 1.003 OPS
Cons:
Small sample size so far, compared to elite power hitters-Giancarlo Stanton at 437 batted ball events, Aaron Judge at 338. Only 129 for Matt Olson.
Vulnerability vs. lefties. again small sample size, but a significant drop off, 46 plate appearances,.196 AVG, 4 homers, .302 OBP. Against righties, different story-143 plate appearances, 20 HRS, .280 .AVG.
A really high k rate, 28.7 percent/ this is offset a little bit by the fact that he is showing a really good eye at the dish
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The potential for Matt Olson is very high right now, but we obviously need to see more. Some of the underlying numbers show us he has great power first and foremost, another wild stat is the 41% homer to fly ball rate. That can’t be sustainable but it does show us that when he gets a ball elevated, it has a good chance of going yard. There will be adjustments made by opposing pictures now that they will see more of him. Olson will have to make adjustments of his own against lefties in order to move up the rankings.
It’s hard to know where exactly Olson should sit amongst other first baseman. Ranked 18th overall according to ADP/Fantasy Pros. Providing he can learn to hit lefties while continuing his great approach at the plate, .250/.260, upwards of 40 homers, 95-105 RBI, 950 OPS, is a real possibility. I don’t think it’s too too much of a risk for him to get close to the top ten. Ahead of him are the likes of, 12.Miguel Cabrera, 13.Miguel Sano, 14.J.T. Realmuto, 15.Ian Desmond, 16.Ryan Zimmerman, 17. Justin Smoak. Other then maybe Sano the potential is higher compared to the others. Once the top 10 ten first baggers are off the board, start thinking of snatching up Matt Olson.
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