NASCAR DFS: Advice for Cup Series Race at Phoenix Raceway
The second portion of the two-race weekend at Phoenix Raceway rolls of Sunday, March 14 at 3:30pm/ET on FOX. With NASCAR making its first stop in the desert for 2021, it time to buckle back up for the Instacart 500 and some NASCAR DFS as well. Yesterday’s Xfinity Series article helped some people take down some GPPs! Let’s see if we can’t duplicate that success!
The characteristics of Phoenix Raceway have been compared to many tracks, such as Darlington, New Hampshire, Pocono and Watkins Glen just to name a few. The reason for this is each of the three corners at this speedway are uniquely shaped in their own way, in terms of banking, degrees and radius.
Not only will the drivers be racing each other on Sunday afternoon, but they’ll have a formidable opponent in the track itself. The arduous task gets even trickier however from Saturday to Sunday because the Cup Series will have a little extra power under the hood and the race is 500 miles.
Yesterday’s race was 200 miles and offered up a lot of bonus points to drivers who lead a lot of laps and turned the fastest laps on the track. I often try to target drivers who start near the rear, but will be making their way to the front for those coveted place differential bonus points. That will still be something we keep in mind today, but that’s not where our main focus will be.
Today we’re looking for the guys who are going to be out front in clean air leading laps too. If history repeats itself as it sometimes does, there should be a few dominators out front.
The question is, who will it be?
Competition Caution
The NASCAR Cup Series runs two separate horsepower packages, 550hp and 750hp, depending on the track. If you’re new to the sport, this might leave you scratching your head. The reason they do so is to lower top speeds, as teams never seem to faulter when trying to make their cars go faster on the track. The lower horse power package is used at the tracks 1.2 miles and up.
The way they lower the horse power is via a tapered spacer. A tapered spacer is a 1-inch-thick piece of aluminum that has holes to restrict air flow into the carburetor. In previous years, NASCAR used a restrictor plate/tapered spacer combo on the superspeedways, (Daytona and Talladega) to slow the cars. The transition to the new tapered spacer package took place in 2019 following the season opening Daytona 500.
The 750hp package is used at the following tracks:
- Bristol Motor Speedway (both oval and dirt)
- Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval
- Circuit of The Americas
- Darlington Raceway
- Daytona Road Course
- Dover International Speedway
- Indianapolis Road Course
- Martinsville Speedway
- Nashville Superspeedway
- New Hampshire Motor Speedway
- Phoenix Raceway
- Richmond Raceway
- Road America
- Sonoma Raceway
- Watkins Glen International
For the second time in 2021, the Cup series will be racing with the 750hp package when the field takes the green flag at Phoenix. There are a few drivers who have excelled particularly well with this rules package and/or at intermediate tracks over the last two seasons.
We will be sure touch on them below.
Pre-Race News:
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Data and analysis complied from Racing-Reference.info and DriverAverages.com
NASCAR DFS: Top-Tier Targets
Chase Elliott: #9 | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevy | $11,500
Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott is the favorite to win the Instacart 500 on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway according to Vegas. In the spring race last year, he had a great car, but fell victim to a loose wheel. When the series came back for the championship race in the fall, he made a late pass to take the lead and win the title.
In his six career starts at PR, Elliott’s stat line is as follows: one win, two top-5’s, three top-10s and four top-20s. He’s also lead 262 laps. Digging a little deeper is where things get interesting. What stands out particularly to me, is that a majority of Chase’s success at this track came last year, following the move to the new rules package. With 750hp under his pedal, Elliott lead 246 of those 262 laps and grabbed the previously mentioned win.
To start the 2021 season, Elliott hasn’t exactly carried that championship momentum over. He’s run well at times, but the finishes aren’t there to show for it. He will take the green flag from the sixth position today and it shouldn’t take him long to get to the front. The top of the track was undoubtedly fast on Saturday for the Xfinity Series race, as that’s where NASCAR has placed the PJ1 tire compound. Elliott likes the top, so it should suit is driving style just right.
He’ll be highly owned, but hopefully the allure of Kevin Harvick’s past success here draws some ownership away.
Joey Logano: #22 | Team Penske | Ford | $11,100
Prior to the 2020 season, driver Joey Logano usually wasn’t on my radar when the races came to the Phoenix suburbs. Since the new rules package was introduced last year, he’s become easily one of my favorite drivers to target. Whether it’s the talent behind the wheel, the engines under the hood, or the set-up of the cars — Team Penske has the new 750hp package dialed in. We seen it on Saturday with Austin Cindric, and we seen it here last year with teammate Brad Keselowski and with Logano.
Since the new package was introduced, Logano has run the highest percentage of laps compared to all drivers from inside the top-5 with 69%. That’s a helluva figure. At Pheonix Raceway in 2020, Logano finished first and third in two races, leading 185 laps along the way.
The start of his 2021 season has seen some ups and downs, with just one top-5 and two-top-10s through the first four races. He starts today’s race from p.9, meaning he can grab some place differential points on his way to the front to (hopefully) lead some laps.
I don’t expect his ownership to be as high as guys like Elliott and Harvick, so Logano is not only a good play for cash, but Gpps as well. He also called Saturday’s race for FS1 from the television booth. Does that help? Probably not, but we’ll pretend it does.
Brad Keselowski: #2 | Team Penske | Ford | $10,400
As we move our attention on from Logano, we head right over to his teammate, bad Brad Keselowski. Like we said before, Roger Penske and his guys have this package figured out so far, and Keselowski showed on the track last year. We mentioned that Joey had run the most laps inside the top-5 — well, Brad is the man in second in that category at 57%.
Keselowski lost this race last year due to poor pit stops, but we’ll hope this is where history doesn’t follow it’s previous course. In 2020, his average finishing position here in two races was 6.5 and he lead 98 total laps. He starts from the pole today, and I expect him to jump out front early. He’s cheaper than Harvick, Elliott and Logano. Saving that money could be crutial to roster construction later if you choose to play the Michigan native.
In my opinion, he’s more of a tournament target, but you can use him in cash builds too if you chose.
Other drivers to consider: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson
NASCAR DFS: Mid-Range Targets
Aric Almirola: #10 | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford | $9,000
Alright, we’re finally moving on from Team Penske, but we aren’t leaving the Ford camp. This time we’re going to talk about Aric Almirola and Stewart-Haas Racing. Unless you religiously watch NASCAR, (like I do) this probably is not the SHR driver you expected us to target today. However, Almirola is quietly one of the top-10 drivers in terms of fantasy scoring at Phoenix.
Unlike the previously mention guys, Almirola didn’t just recently start running well at this track. In his seven most recent starts here, he’s compiled five top-10s, two top-5s, and lead 33 laps. In his starts with 750hp under the hood, he has an average finishing position of 10.5.
Moving on to 2021, things might get a bit uncomfortable to talk about because this season is off to a rough start. Through four races, Almirola’s best finish is 17th. In the other three, he finished 30th or worse. In his last two outings, he’s finished with two DNFs.
Yikes, right?
The fact of the matter is that this is top-tier equipment belonging to one of the best teams in the series. If fortunes were to turn around, what better time than now? He starts the race scored from p.32, but his recent performances could be enough to scare people away. I won’t be one of those people when it comes to GPPs. There are a ton of bonus points to be had via place differential.
He’s a great fit for your tournament lines.
Alex Bowman: #48 | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet | $8,700
Everything about driver Alex Bowman is fast. Even his haircut. He simply has not had the finishes to show for it in 2021. He’s started off the year with two top-10s and two finishes of 27th or worse. It’s a mixed bag as he’s had big shoes to fill since replacing former seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson in the famed 48 car at Hendrick Motorsports. I look for this weekend top be the first time he breaks the top five this year.
His previous runs at Phoenix Raceway have been about as consistent as his finishes this season. In seven career starts at this oddly shaped, one-mile speedway, he has just one top ten. Keep in mind however, before making the move to HMS he was driving for Tommy Baldwin Racing, a team that went basically belly-up due to poor performance. Things started to turn around for him almost immediately after being hand-picked by Dale Earnhardt Jr to fill-in as a replacement driver following a head injury. During his relief efforts, he would lead 184 laps and nearly won right here at Phoenix.
Now driving for Mr. Hendrick full-time, Bowman has won races and made the NASCAR playoffs in 2020. His average finish at today’s track is 15th, and he starts in p.21. He’ll have a good car and is a teammate of Chase Elliott. Look for him to make his way into the top ten while your lineups climb the leaderboard by gaining place differential bonuses.
William Byron: #24 | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet | $8,300
We’re staying in the Hendrick Motorsports stable here and going with the teammate to Elliot and Bowman, William Byron. Before we go on, I will state that this is a GPP play only though. That’s because while writing this article, news broke via NASCAR DFS twitter that Byron would be forced to start from the rear this afternoon due failing pre-race inspection. The kicker is he’ll still be scored from his qualifying position of tenth. It’s a risky play without the reward of the extra bonus points, but we’re going to play him for two reasons.
- His ownership will be significantly lower due this being announced Saturday night.
- He’s damn good at this race track.
Through six career races at PR, Byron has finished in the top ten 50% of the time and has lead 15 laps. His average starting position under the 750hp package is 21st, but his average finishing position is 9.5. He’s proven before he can navigate traffic here and pass cars. Additionally, unlike Bowman, Byron has fired off with a good start to the season in 2021.
Two weeks ago he started 31st and went on to win the race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Last week at Las Vegas, he finished in p.8. In those two races, he’s lead a total of 127 laps and recorded bonus points for turning 64 of the fastest laps as well. That equals out to 165 fantasy points over the last two races.
His ownership should be down and Byron is the type of driver that can help you take down a GPP.
Other drivers to consider: Ryan Blaney (Cash), Matt DiBenedetto (GPP), Kurt Busch, Tyler Reddick (GPP)
NASCAR DFS: Value Targets
Cole Custer: #41 | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford | $6,700
Before we dive too deep into the value plays, let me start with this — if you go too cheap, the choices are gross. Now that we got that out of the way, lets move onto Cole Custer. Custer is another SHR Ford that has had a so-so start transitioning from 2020-’21. In his first four starts of hi sophomore campaign, Custer has failed to crack the top ten with an 11th at the season-opening Daytona 500 followed up by a 13th at the Daytona Road Course. Over his last two races, he’s finished 23rd and 25th respectively.
Last season at Phoenix, he ran well in the spring race despite failing to post a flashy finish. In that race, he ran impressive 99% of his laps inside the top twenty. His average running position was a respectable 14th. He starts today’s race in 24th, allowing him the potential to score some position differential points if he can finish in or around the top ten.
Custer is a solid play for both cash and GPPs.
Ryan Newman: #6 | Roush-Fenway Racing | Toyota | $6,500
Once upon a time, this tricky triangular shaped track was considered one of Ryan Newman’s better venues. Years ago, while driving the No. 39 car for Stewart-Haas Racing, he won a race. In his nine prior starts here, Newman has an average finishing position of 16th. Unfortunately, we have no data to go off of for the 750hp package at any tracks last year, due to Newman missing every race following a crash at the Daytona 500 that could have cost him his life.
With so many bad drivers priced below him, Newman essentially becomes one of the more logical value plays. He will roll off the grid from 19th on Sunday afternoon.
Daniel Suarez: #99 | TrackHouse Racing | Toyota | $5,900
We had to fit a Toyota onto this article some where, and we do so with Daniel Suarez. Suarez is a driver who has impressed many people by posting what can be considered admirable finishes through four races this season. Not only were they the first four races for Suarez with his new team, but they were the first four races of TrackHouse’s young existence. One of those top-16 finishes came with a helmet full of vomit after he threw up while driving at the Daytona Road Course.
Dedication, eh?
If that wasn’t enough to convince you, perhaps the fact that Pitbull owns a majority share of this team will. In all seriousness, Suarez will start the race 27th, meaning if he can advance forward and post another top-15 finish, he’ll hit the value needed to have a place on your roster.
Other drivers to consider: Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece
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