NBA Bets & DFS – Friday (1/12/18)

NBA Bets & DFS – Friday (1/12/18)

Welcome to a new column here at GoingFor2 call “NBA Bets & DFS” which will take a look at the NBA main slate each weekday (or as often as I can get it written) and provide a high-level (macro) look at the matchups from both a wagering and DFS perspective.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on. Red means “hot” (high-scoring/fast-paced) and Blue means “cold” (low-scoring/slow-paced).

I will then write up my “DFS Angle” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Bets” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

DFS Angle

Teams in Pace Up matchups:

• Pacers
• Jazz
• Wizards
• Bucks
• Grizzlies

Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:

• Rockets
• Wizards
• Warriors
• Pacers
• Bucks

Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:

• Grizzlies
• Hawks
• Nets
• Pacers

Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:

• Cavaliers
• Wizards
• Knicks
• Timberwolves
• Blazers
• Pelicans
• Warriors
• Rockets

General Overview:

• It should be a pretty high-scoring night in the NBA and DFS with four games coming in with Vegas total of 219 or higher. Be sure you are looking for players with solid floors and upside to maximize fantasy points on a large nine-game slate.
• Give extra attention to players from the Pacers as they show up on the Pace Up list, Highest Scoring team list and More Productive list.
• Consider rostering more players from these teams that could achieve increased production compared to their averages:
  • Grizzlies (Pace Up and More Productive)
  • Wizards (Pace Up and High Scoring)
  • Bucks (Pace Up and High Scoring)
• Beware of players from these teams who may have decreased production compared to their averages:
  • Cavaliers
  • Timberwolves
  • Knicks

Bovada Bets

Today’s plays

Sides

• Pacers +2.5 (5-star)
• Bucks +6.5 (5-star)
• Suns +7.5 (3-star)
• Magic +10 (2-star)
• Grizzlies +7 (2-star)
• Knicks +9 (1-star)
• Jazz +4 (0-star)
• Blazers +3 (0-star)
• Hawks -3 (0-star)

Totals

• Knicks/Wolves Under 209 (4-star)
• Cavs/Pacers Under 221 (2-star)
• Blazers/Pelicans Under 219 (2-star)
• Warriors/Bucks Under 225 (2-star)
• Nets/Hawks Over 211 (2-star)
• Magic/Wizards Under 218 (1-star)
• Grizzlies/Nuggets Over 205 (1-star)
• Rockets/Suns Under 228 (1-star)
• Jazz/Hornets Over 206 (0-star)

Previous Results

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