NBA Bets & DFS – Thursday (1/11/18)

NBA Bets & DFS

I am kicking off a new column here at GoingFor2 call “NBA Bets & DFS” which will take a look at the NBA main slate each weekday (or as often as I can get it written) and provide a high-level (macro) look at the matchups from both a wagering and DFS perspective.

Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.

In my write-up, I will list the matchup along with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on. And, finally, I will give a few bullet points for each game with other observations along with my Game Bets.

HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.

I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play

Cavaliers (-3.5) @ Raptors (+3.5)

• Cavaliers on the front end of a back-to-back as they travel to Indiana on Friday, watch or any news regarding players getting rested
• Raptors playing third game in last four days including two straight one-point games (Nets, Heat)
• Both teams playing a top 10 Pace over their last five games and as a result, both team’s scoring has been up

Daily Fantasy Angle

Game with the Highest Total on the small slate and should stay close allowing all marquee players to get full minutes and heavy usage.

Betting/Bovada 

Raptors +3.5: 5 Stars

Under 220: 0 Stars

Clippers (-1.5) @ Kings (+1.5)

• Clippers have a depleted roster due to injuries and will be playing in the 2nd game of back-to-back and third game in four days. Played at Golden State last night (win) and have won two straight. 
• Clippers have been in some high-scoring matchup over their last five games.
• Kings despite playing in their third game in four days have played all three games in California (home-twice and at Lakers)
• Kings have also seen increased pace and scoring in their last five games

Daily Fantasy Angle

“Pace Up” spot for the Kings’ players at home, the game could be higher scoring than predicted.

Betting/Bovada 

Clippers -1.5: 0-stars

Over 211: 1-star

Spurs (-3) @ Lakers (+3)

• Spurs have had increased pace and scoring over their last five games. Watch injury/rest reports closely as always with Spurs. 
• Lakers’ offensive production has been wildly inconsistent from night-to-night as you would expect for a young team. They will need to deal with the slow-paced Spurs which won’t allow them as many transition buckets or easy looks.

Daily Fantasy Angle

“Pace Up” spot for the Spurs but I’m more concern about the “Pace Down” spot for the Lakers’ players.

Betting/Bovada 

Spurs -3: 0-stars

Under 211: 1-star

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