NBA DFS 2016-17 Southeast Division Team-by-Team Outlook

Atlanta Hawks:

Despite the loss of Al Horford to the Boston Celtics, the Hawks should still have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference thanks to three players: All-Star Paul Millsap, the newly acquired Dwight Howard and recently appointed starting lead guard Dennis Schröder. Millsap, who has been named an All-Star for past three seasons, was the 19th best scorer in points-per-game on both DraftKings and FanDuel last season. He’s incredibly reliable in attaining points and rebounds each night while being able to provide alternative points through blocks and steals as an above-average defensive presence. To sum it up, you know exactly what you’re getting night in and night out with Millsap: a high floor with minimal risk and the occasional bump up in production. Schröder is finally getting the starting nod after being Jeff Teague’s understudy for several years. His Per-36 numbers suggest he is more than capable of handling the starting role and should be able to provide similar numbers to Teague’s from last season. The downsides to his game are that he isn’t a particularly good outside shooter (32% 3PT shooter) and his TOV% for his Per-36 is 4.1 which is very high. The key to the Hawks’ success will be Howard and his low post presence. His production has dropped in recent years, but he can still be a force near the rim and on the boards as he was a top-10 center on both sites last season; however, his ability to get double-doubles makes him more valuable on DraftKings than FanDuel. He will be in a lot of pick-and-roll situations with Schroder as well so that will serve as one barometer for how these two will succeed in DFS this season. Howard’s impact will also reflect on Millsap who should space the floor more due to his jump-shooting ability. Don’t be surprised to see an uptick in Millsap’s three-point attempts due to defenses collapsing on Howard in the post. Keep an eye on Kent Bazemore to be given a more advanced role as well and look for specific match-up advantages with him.

Charlotte Hornets:

Kemba Walker was one last season’s surprise players due to his increased shooting efficiency that led to a career-high in scoring; he averaged close to 21 points per contest. Walker was the 8th highest scoring point guard across both FanDuel and DraftKings, outscoring guards like Mike Conley and Kyrie Irving. He was also responsible for a number of DFS scoring outbursts with 25+ contests of 45 FPG on DraftKings, including game scores of 80.75, 72.25, 65, 63.5 and 60.75. With those kinds of explosions, Walker did put up the occasional duds as well, but his improvement was something to behold. It remains to be seen if last season was an outlier or if Walker is finally ready to make a leap to the next level and avoid regression to the mean. Alongside Walker stands Nicolas Batum, who classified as a SF on FanDuel and SG on DraftKings. Batum is a swiss army knife of a player who fills up the stat sheet in many categories and makes him a valuable player on DFS sites. He’s a player with a pretty high DFS floor with only one year of being a top-tier option for his team under his belt. Batum is just entering his prime and should show improvement much like Walker did last season and his versatility across the board makes him a triple-double threat on DraftKings. As for the rest of the team, only Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist stand out as DFS options to keep an eye on. Williams showed his value as a stretch 4 last season by making a career-high 40% of his three-pointers. His production level will never be very high, but he should be a relatively cheap option that will get you 15-25 points a night if that’s what you need. Kidd-Gilchrist is tougher to predict due to his history of freak injuries, but before a shoulder injury ended last year’s campaign, he showed a great shooting touch from deep (43%) and is a good rebounder at his position. His DFS averages had him ranked 20th and 18th on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively; we must keep in mind the small sample size, but don’t be surprised if he puts up similar numbers this season.

Miami Heat:

The Heat players will be tough to evaluate before the season due to the uncertainty of Chris Bosh’s playing status. His blood clots and health issues have put he and the team at an impasse about his future. Without Bosh, the Heat would be a very poor team relying on Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside for the majority of their offense. Dragic and Whiteside are both fine players, but neither looks like they can carry a team for stretches to the extent that would make them enviable DFS players. Whiteside’s value is much higher due to his penchant for blocks and being a double-double machine; he tied for 8th in the league last season and also registered three triple-doubles. Dragic is capable of scoring in bunches, but we haven’t seen him do it with this little talent around him yet. The players to watch on the Heat might actually be the younger guys like Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson. Both should play advanced roles this season and plenty of minutes, a lot of it playing from behind I would assume. For Winslow to truly become a good DFS option, he must improve his outside shooting to open up driving lanes where he is really effective. Johnson is already an above-average outside shooter who should get many more looks on offense this season due to there being no other real options outside of Dragic and Whiteside. The question with Johnson is if he can improve in areas other than scoring and become a bit of a playmaker.

Orlando Magic:

One of the weirder teams in analyzing for NBA DFS purposes, the Magic have a logjam in the frontcourt that hasn’t yet been sorted out. The incumbent Nikola Vucevic has been one of the best DFS scorers in the last few years, but he may even not start this season due to the acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo. Vucevic has been an almost lock for a double-double each night with some ridiculous scoring outputs, but his minutes will surely take a hit and he could also even be traded at some point this season. His pricing and minutes per game will be the most intriguing part of deciphering his DFS value. Biyombo’s production will come in easy dunks, putbacks, rebounds and blocks due to his inability to create for himself in the post and lack of a jumper. Ibaka’s low post moves aren’t very developed either, but his value will lie in the pick-and-pop due to his smooth jumper. I can see Ibaka’s numbers declining a bit as most players would when they no longer play off two of the best scorers in the league anymore. Open looks will be much harder to come by for him. The last player in the logjam is Aaron Gordon who still hasn’t found his true position as a small forward or power forward. If he can develop a jumper, Gordon may be the surprise player of the group as the 6th man or an energy guy off the bench due to his rebounding ability. Elfrid Payton’s inconsistency as a player has his opportunity as the starting point guard starting to slip away. Payton is capable of great assist numbers and is excellent defensively, but he hasn’t shown any ability to shoot which allows his defenders to play off him and limit his options on offense. The addition of D.J. Augustin to back him up will put pressure on him to perform or risk being benched. Augustin should be a solid DFS target as he can certainly run the second unit and is a good scorer off the bench with a relatively low price tag. The Magic have a very young team, but no player other than Vucevic has proven they can be a top DFS scorer on a consistent basis and makes me wary of many of their players to begin this season.

Washington Wizards:

John Wall finished behind only Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry in the point guard position last season and eighth overall for DFS scoring. He’s an incredible passer as we all know from his average of over 10 assists per game last season, but his shooting numbers also improved as well. Unfortunately, a minor controversy has emerged this summer as there appears to be a rift between Wall and Bradley Beal. How will this conflict affect their relationship on the court? No one knows just yet, but it will be something to keep an eye on. Wall will be one of the top scorers all season and something of a must-play most nights. Beal, on the other hand, is tougher to evaluate. He scored 17 points last season which is good for a fourth-year player, but he does not seem to offer much else in the way of DFS scoring. He’s a steady player, but not one who jumps off the page at you. His health is also a concern as he’s only played 70 games once in four seasons. Marcin Gortat is one of the most consistent centers you’ll find in DFS. He finished top-15 on both sites despite modest averages of almost 14 points and eight rebounds a game; he did have 41 double-doubles making him more valuable on DraftKings. He doesn’t offer much in blocks, but for cash games, he’s a very solid play with a good floor. The Wizards have a new coach this season in Scott Brooks so how he utilizes the younger guys like Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre will be a development to watch. Oubre has the talent but wasn’t given much in the way of opportunities last season as a rookie. Porter had a good third season with Beal missing a lot of time, but his role with Beal back is undetermined as of now. Outside of Wall, the other players should be picked on a night-to-night basis depending on match-ups and how they’ve been playing.

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