NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Advice (11/4/2016)
Now that we are over a week into the NBA season, we finally have some data to start to look at to gain more knowledge of a player’s minutes’ expectations and team and player efficiency. My process is probably similar to many others looking at each player’s production per possession while trying to project each player’s expected possessions on the floor using the pace of the matchup and the player’s minutes’ projection. I also factor in the matchup using a custom blend of defense vs. position(DvP) stats for the opposing team broken down by statistical category such as points, rebounds and assists allowed to the position. You may see me reference these custom DvP stats during my articles.
So, with that here are my FanDuel player recommendations for the Friday slate…
NBA DFS FanDuel lineup advice for November 4
Point Guards
Top Play:
John Wall (WAS) $9,000
Wall has posted three straight double-doubles to start the season and has scored at least 35 FanDuel points each game this season despite shooting just 1-for-8 from three-point range and averaging over six turnovers per game. Friday he will get a favorable matchup at home against the Hawks that he should be able to exploit for a big fantasy day.
Value Pick:
Tim Frazier (NO) $5,500
Frazier has been a DFS favorite early on this season with a low salary accompanied by big minutes and fantasy production. His minutes and production came to a halt on Wednesday totaling just 15 minutes and 7.2 FD points but I am writing that off as a fluke due to the game flow that night. Frazier should return to around 35 minutes and 40+ FD points in his matchup against the Suns.
Other Options: Kemba Walker (CHA) $7,800; Mike Conley (MEM) $6,500; JJ Barea (DAL) $5,100
Shooting Guards
Top Pick:
Nicolas Batum (CHA) $ 6,400
Batum posted solid all-around numbers every night giving him a solid floor in any matchup. He will get a favorable matchup bump against the Nets who have allowed an increase to opposing SG points (+9.4%), rebounds (+32.6%), assists (+0.4%) and steals (+53.3%) so far this season. Look for Batum to stuff the stat sheet.
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Value Pick:
Sean Kilpatrick (BKN) $4,700
Kilpatrick is in line for a minutes and usage increase with the Nets loss of Jeremy Lin for at least the next couple of weeks. Kilpatrick played some point guard after Lin went down on Wednesday and went on to score a season-high 24 points with 10 rebounds. Look for Kilpatrick to get 30+ minutes against the Hornets and far outperform his cheap salary.
Other Options: DeMar DeRozen (TOR) $8,500; CJ McCollum (POR) $7,100; Klay Thompson (GS) $5,900
Small Forwards
Top Pick:
Jimmy Butler (CHI) $7,700
Butler is the ultimate cash game play thanks to his consistent play and solid floor. He has scored at least 28.5 FanDuel points in each game this season and will draw a favorable matchup against the Knicks who have allowed increased production to opposing SF this season in points (+4.5%), rebounds (+1.9%), assists (+11.2%) and steals (+58.5%).
Value Pick:
TJ Warren (PHX) $5,900
Warren continues to be underpriced given the production he has had so far this season, averaging 34.4 FanDuel points per game. He will be playing in a game with the second highest Vegas total on the slate and should be able to exceed his 22.4 points per game against a Pelicans’ team that has allowed 8.5% more points to opposing SF this season.
Other Options: Kevin Durant (GS) $9,900; Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (CHA) $5,600; Thabo Sefolosha (ATL) $4,400
Power Forwards
Top Pick:
Anthony Davis (NO) $11,200
Davis, much like Frazier, hurt a lot of DFS lineups on Wednesday when he only totaled 10 points and seven boards for 24.9 FanDuel points. However, look for him to bounce back on Friday at home in a favorable matchup with the Suns who have allowed an increase in points (+8.9%) and blocks (+31.5%) to opposing PF this season.
Value Pick:
Taj Gibson (CHI) $5,700
Gibson has been one of the most consistent players in the league so far this season scoring between 25 to 30 FanDuel points in each of the Bulls four games so far this season while playing about 26 minutes per game. Gibson should continue to produce at least 25 points again on Friday against a Knicks team that has allowed a lot of fantasy production to opposing PF this season. Nikola Mirotic is a good pivot in GPP lineups with a higher ceiling than Gibson.
Other Options: Julius Randle (LAL) $6,100; Marvin Williams (CHA) $5,300; Nikola Mirotic (CHI) $5,100
Centers
Top Pick:
Hassan Whiteside (MIA) $8,400
Whiteside has been asked to be more involved in the Heat offense this season with the loss of Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh and he has stepped up to the challenge so far with four straight double-doubles to begin the season. He should play big minutes tonight guarding the Raptors’ big man, Jonas Valanciunas giving him the upside to be one of the top fantasy producers of the night.
Value Pick:
Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) $6,200
Considering both sides of the Whiteside/Valanciunas matchup with a cheaper option in Valanciunas who should play big minutes matching up with Whiteside down low. Averaging a double-double so far this season, Valanciuinas has been playing well and should produce solid production if you are looking to pay for a mid-salary option at center.
Other Options: Brook Lopez (BKN) $7,300; Marc Gasol (MEM) $7,000; Joakim Noah (NY) $4,200;
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