NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Advice (3/3/2017)

Friday night’s 10-game NBA slate is all about road underdogs. Eight out of the 10 games have the road team favored by about two to seven points. This could be a recipe for a lot of close games where the away team’s superstars play big minutes. There are a lot of good plays with mid-range salaries on the slate so skipping the studs and going with a balanced lineup could be in play.

As usual, I will be picking “One Stud” who is priced over $9,000 on FanDuel as my stud to pay up for on the night. Then for each position, I will give a “Top Play” who comes in at $9,000 or less and finally a “Value Pick” that is $6,000 or less. Hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot if you have any feedback on the new format.

As always be sure to watch for late-breaking news before finalizing your lineup. So, with that here are my FanDuel player recommendations for the Friday slate…

NBA DFS FanDuel lineup advice for March 3, 2017
One Stud
Blake Griffin (LAC) $9,700 @ MIL / Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) $10,800 vs LAC

I had a difficult time landing on my “one stud” for tonight as you can see. Russell Westbrook is always a strong candidate but with his huge price tag ($13,000) and playing in the second night of a back-to-back, I will shy away from him. This brought me to Griffin and the Greek Freak for my choice. I feel like Griffin has a higher floor but there are a variety of solid PF options around the $7,000 range, however, the shooting guard position is a dumpster fire tonight so paying up for a stud like Antetokounmpo could give you a big leg up on the competition at a weak position. Both are in play and the choice probably comes down to if you can find two SG options you are comfortable with.
Point Guards
Top Play: Kyrie Irving (CLE) $9,000

Irving has been very consistent, especially since Kevin Love went down six games ago. During those six games, Irving has averaged over 42 FanDuel points per game. He gets a juicy matchup on Friday against the Hawks who have allowed increased production in points (+2.4%), rebounds (+9.4) and steals (+7.2) this season. The addition of Deron Williams could eventually impact Irving’s production down the stretch but look for Irving to continue to thrive tonight.

Value Pick: Tyler Johnson (MIA) $5,8000

Johnson is coming off a big 24-point game against the Sixers on his way to 34.4 FanDuel points. He has played at least 26 minutes in eight of his last nine games and could see a few more minutes tonight if Dion Waiters, who is questionable with an ankle injury, misses the game. Johnson also gets a favorable matchup against the Magic who have allowed increased production in points, rebounds and assists to opposing PG.

Other Options: Russell Westbrook (OKC) $13,000 / Chris Paul (LAC) $9,600 / D’Angelo Russell (LAL) $6,400
Shooting Guards
Top Pick: Devin Booker (PHO) $6,200

Booker stands out as one of the safer options in the minefield that is the SG position. He is priced at one of his lowest points in a while and is a safe bet for around 35 minutes and 25+ FanDuel points. He will be playing in the game with the highest Vegas total of the night against the Thunder.

Value Pick: Courtney Lee (NY) $5,000

Lee’s fantasy production can be volatile as shown by his last four games where he scored 14.8, 36.1, 14.8 and 40.7 FanDuel points respectively. He should have a good opportunity to have another “up” game on Friday against the Sixers who have allowed big increased production across the board to opposing SG this season. In a night with a lot of landmines at SG, Lee could be the bomb.

Other Options: Bradley Beal (WAS) $7,400 / Seth Curry (DAL) $6,200
Small Forwards
Top Pick: Gordon Hayward (UTH) $8,000

Hayward and the Jazz are one of the only home favorites on the slate as they take on the Nets. While being a big home favorite does carry some risk to a blowout and reduced minutes, Hayward should be able to get in plenty of production before the game gets to that point. The Nets have allowed big increases in points (+12.0%), rebounds (+14.0%) and assists (+5.5%) to opposing SF this season. Hayward also benefits with a small bump up in usage with Rodney Hood out for Friday’s game.

Value Pick: Khris Middleton (MIL) $5,300

Middleton is starting to ramp up his minutes and fantasy production in Milwaukee. He rose to 31 minutes on Wednesday while scoring 21 points with five rebounds and five assists against the Nuggets for 35.5 FanDuel points. With Jabari Parker and Michael Beasley out, look for Middleton to continue to increase his production alongside Antetokounmpo. Middleton’s salary will rise in the $6,000 range very soon so take advantage of the $5,300 price tag while you still can.

Other Options: Carmelo Anthony (NY) $8,100 / Robert Covington (PHI) $7,200 / Brandon Ingram (LAL) $3,800
Power Forwards
Top Pick: Kristaps Porzingis (NY) $6,700

As I stated in by One Stud write up, the power forward position has a lot of solid options in the $6,000 to $7,500 range with Porzingis and Dario Saric leading the way. Porzingis returned from injury to play 33 minutes on Wednesday while producing 34.8 FanDuel points. With Willy Hernangomez likely out again, Porzingis will see time at PF and C for the Knicks in a favorable matchup with the Sixers. He should post solid numbers in points and rebounds while taking advantage of the Sixers in ancillary categories such as steals and blocks to give him some upside.

Value Pick: Derrick Favors (UTH) $5,000

Favors is finally starting to round into form after an injury forced him to miss time in November and December. He is consistently playing 24-28 minutes a night and has exceeded 23 FanDuel points in seven of his last 10 games. He gets a favorable matchup against the Nets who have allowed more points (+11.6%) and rebounds (+7.2%) to opposing PF this season. He might not have the upside for GPP lineups but he is a solid bet for Cash games.

Other Options: Dario Saric (PHI) $7,300 / Serge Ibaka (TOR) $6,900 / Julius Randle (LAL) $6,300

Centers 
Top Pick: DeAndre Jordan (LAC) $7,600

Jordan typically performs better when Chris Paul is in the lineup. Jordan and Rudy Gobert have similar prices but completely different floor versus upside. Gobert could be a better Cash game option if you are looking for a guaranteed 30-40 FanDuel points, meanwhile, Jordan gives you a slightly lower floor of maybe 25 FanDuel points but give you access to a big game with potentially 50 FanDuel points like he did two games ago against the Hornets. He will face a Bucks’ team that has allowed increased production to opposing C in points, rebounds and blocks. Give me the upside with Jordan.

Value Pick: Kyle O’Quinn (NY) $4,900

O’Quinn was the chalk at center on Wednesday when Willy Hernangomez was out and while he had a decent game with 20.4 FanDuel points he didn’t see the increase minutes many expected him to have. It will be interesting to see if DFS players will go back to the well on Friday, assuming Hernangomez is out. I likely will go back to O’Quinn again. He has a better matchup tonight versus the Embiid-less Sixers who have allowed increased points (+3.6%), rebounds (+4.1%) and blocks (+21.2%) to opposing C. Another 20 FanDuel point game is probably his floor with a 30-35 point game well within his range of possible outcomes.

Other Options: Rudy Gobert (UTH) $7,500 / Greg Monroe (MIL) $6,400 / Al Horford (BOS) $6,000

 

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