The DFS Round Table
We’ve all partied there , Or got married there. I did only one of those and it’s not the one with the ring I’ll say that much . So you ask why do I have a picture of Las Vegas and what does it relate to DFS ?
A lot of thing for the NBA . We get to pick a lot of player based on this information . I can make a list of player who can do good on any giving night . The idea is to target the right player in the right situations.
Example A: Do I target Lebron James VS the Utah Jazz ?
Example B: Do I target James Harden Vs the Boston celtics
90 % of the time I’m a go with the player in a better postion to excel at Pace and O/U .
Utah Jazz are one of the worst team to target for the pace . They sit at 93.9 Pace Factor . While Boston Celtics sit at 101.0 . I will take the team with the higher pace .
Higher the pace , the more possesion . Meaning it will result in more points opportunity .
Now you ask what do I do when a team has a high pace team and low pace team facing each other ?Depends on the team playing each other.
The other night we had San Antonio vs Washington Wizards.
I knew the Spread was in favor of San Antonio Spurs , the slower pace team . Even with washington being one of the highest pace team in the league (100.9) pace factor . I targeted the S.A. Spurs . They ended up scoring 114.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Kawhi Leonard – 27 points 4 assist 4 steals. One of the premier stars of the game . The pace and vegas O/U was in favor of him .
Things like this can set you apart fromt the top player in DFS . Now let’s look at Spreads .
The vegas spread-
the point spread is designed to make betting on either side equally attractive. With the spread set at 3.5 points, if you bet on the Vikings, you’ll win your bet if they win the game by more than four points (or if their score is higher even after you subtract 3.5 points from it).
Yes I know this has nothing to do with betting, But it does give me idea of what the top vegas casino and sportsbook are thinking. These guys get paid top dollar to get this as accurate as possible.
This give me the Idea of knowing if a game will be close or a blowout . If it’s a close game and high pace. I’d like to target that game.
If it’s a low Pace Game and blow out I don’t want to target that game .
If it’s a Blowout and High Pace game. I will want to target the team of whom is in favor of them winning .
The other Night we had Phoenix Suns VS Golden State Warriors O/U 220 and Warrior Spread by 12 .
I targeted the warrior player . Klay Thompson dropped 50 Point ,Dreymond Green dropped 54 Point , Stephen Curry dropped 36.9 Underperforming for curry . The 50 points Double -whoppers from green and Klay Thompson must’ve been one great combo meal to eat though .
Now let’s Cover the Over / Under
O/U a bet on whether the outcome of an event (usually the combined score of a sports game) will be above or below a number established in advance by the bookmaker.
I love targeting games with O/U of 200 pt . Meaning they’re going to score each team 100 points. If a game has 200-220 I usually like to target those games . You don’t always has to target those game as other game can have good opportunity without all these factor . Although more of individual DVP outcome . I will get on that later.
If the game is above 200 on the O/U I like to keep it in the green zone .
200+- Green Zone Target
198-190 – Neutral Zone target
190- below – Red Zone , Meaning don’t target . Fade the game if possible .
Now let’s look at some fo these game tomorrow .
GAME VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U
NOP @ PHO PHO 3.5 214
SAC @ MIN SAC 2 213
ATL @ BOS BOS 4 204.5
Top 3 Games To target tomorrow .
NOP VS PHO – As we can see NOP are poised to lose this game . As I know NOP have a terrible defense . If not the worst defense in the league . Vs PHO One of the highest pace team . The best part of this game it’s a 3.5 point spread. No blowout . O/U 214
NOP- Player I’ll Target
Tyreke Evans $7,200
Anthony Davis $10,500
Jrue Holiday $5,300
PHO- Player I’ll Target
Brandon Knight $7,600
Eric Bledsoe $8,800
Jon Leuer $4,600 Value play . A value play in a high pace game and O/U is great for NBA DFS .
SAC VS MIN –
As we all know Sacremento Kings haven’t played defense since Demarcus cousin was a baby . Even then I doubt they did . This game will be a very good game to target as Sacramento is ranked 2nd in pace factor . As well Minnesota being ranked 15th overall . Both team have uptempo style of play . With that O/U at 213 and spread at 2.0 points for sacramento . I can see this game being all “anything you can do , I can do better “ So basically Boogie down with demarcus cousin !
Sacramento – Player I’ll Target
Demarcus Cousin $9,800
Rajon Rondo $8,600
Rudy Gay $7,300
Omri Casspi $5,000
Minnesota – Player I’ll Target
Ricky Rubios $7,200
Karl Anthony-Towns (KAT) $7,200
Zach LaVine $5,900 If Kevin Martin Is out again .
Gorgui Dieng $4,800 If Kevin Garnett is out , or if he starting .
ATL VS BOS
As we talked earlier on , Boston is ranked 4th overall in pace . This game has a 204 O/U with a 4 point spread. Boston has an elite Backcourt Defense . Althought the front court is a weak as a twinkie being sat on . Come on ? I’m not the only one here that done that . Atlanta is ranked 16th overall in pace. Atlanta hasn’t been the same defense they were last year . No Damare Carroll to cover elite wing offensive players.
Atlanta- Player I’ll target
Paul Millsap $8,300
Al Horford $6,800
Boston – Player I’ll target
Avery Bradley $5,900
Isaiah Thomas $8,100
Jard Sullinger $5,900
Well that give you the top 3 games of the night , of what I like to target and why . Now I’ll give you a list of teams I think are in a postitive match up and would also target tomorrow .
GSW- Curry , Green , Thompson
IND- Paul George , Ellis
ORL- Vucevic , Olidapo ,Peyton
POR= Lillard ,McCollum
Well that does it for the vegas part . Now let’s get into the Defense Vs Position .
Best Defensive Match Up at each position .
PG-
Stephen Curry VS O.J. Mayo Or Michael Carter-William – It has been said the warriors are not going to take this game lightly as the bucks trolled them after winning . Neither of these guys have great defense or the talent to slow down Curry .
Brandon Knight Vs NOP PG – Last time he played NOP he dropped 55 FD points . I can see Jrue slowing him down a bit . The match up is still there though . As they rotate their guard between Evan, Ish smith ,Jrue
SG-
Eric Bledsoe VS Eric Gordon – Eric Gordon . Eric Gordon isolate defndeder. Other then that he not so elite. Eric Bledsoe should take care of business vs him .
Monta Ellis VS Evan Fournier – Evan fornier start , Then Victor Olidapo takes over. I like the match up overall here as they have one of the worst perimeter defense in the league .
SF-
Kawhi Leonard Vs. Wesley Johnson – Talk about a nightmare match up for Johnson . A very weak and undersize 3 . Kawhi Leonard should easily take him down on the post and dominate him. Not only on offense and Defense as well. Clipper are really weak on the perimeter. This makes Kawhi an Elite play.
PF-
Dreymond Green vs Jabari Parker – Dreymond green is a an all-around talent that runs the floor up and down as well plays elite defense. Jabari is a undersize 4 and as well not as physical as green. I can see this being a very good game for green. Espcially in the rebounding catergory with no greg Monroe.
Paul Millsap- Boston front court is so weak, Amir Johnson or Sullinger is no match for Millsap skills level. I can see millsap scoring in a bunch with 3 steals and double double .
C-
Andre Drummond VS Pau Gasol- As many like to call him Ga”Soft” it’s for a reason he not tough or physical like Marc Gasol. Look at what Jahill Okafor did the other day vs the bulls a 35 point game in Fanduel vs Gasol . I see Drummond having his Drummond 20=20 game. As long as he stays out of foul trouble.
Best match up of the night breakdown !!
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
