NBA Fanduel / Draftking – How To Get The Best Value Plays For Your Roster!
Values Plays, How To Get The Maximum Potential out Of Them!
The DFS Round Table
Gerson Aguirre
Money Talks, Ever heard that saying ? Yes it does. Many people in this world go crazy for it. I mean, let’s be honest, we’ve all have said this once or twice before “Get Rich Or Die trying” . I know I have. For the most part, I got richer.
As for DFS purposes, we look to our value players that will make our roster as those prime example. If a roster hits on the Value player 5-6 times it value. You’re in good position to cash.
Value
The number of points a player is projected to score relative to his salary. This amount is usually calculated by dividing a player’s projected points by.
So basically, if a player is $3,500, he needs 5 times value. He needs to get 17.5 points.
If he’s $ 3,000 and needs to hit 5 times his value. He needs 15 points
Cash Game – 4x their salary.
GPP – 5x their salary.
How do we find the best value ??
I get my latest and breaking news from the following three places. Through the day injury, line up adjustment and other breaking news will happen. I suggest you do the following 4 steps.
- Download Ownersbox APP on android or apple. Seriously the best app I’ve ever seen for breaking news and starting lineup updates. As well download RG Lineups as they’re one the best as well.
- Twitter – Add every Beat writer in the business of basketball. As you know these guys are true sources. I go to Rotoworld to add them all as they report all their stuff.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
-
Go to Basketball Monster for all injuries update as they’re quick on it.
So how do we know who the best “Value Play of the day” ?
We don’t. I know I had you excited thinking there was a secret formula! There isn’t. What if there’s a way to pick the best options to narrow the value plays list down?
This is my process of yesterday breakdown on value 12/21/2015.
Let’s look at my options for values yesterday I was targeting.
Garret Temple $3,900 VS Sacramento Kings – 37.5 Points = 9.6 times his salary value.
Tim Frazier $3,500 VS Atlanta Hawks- 31.9 = 9.1 times his salary value.
Marcin Gortat $6,600 VS Sacramento Kings – 56.2= 8.5 times his salary value.
Karl Anthony-Towns $7,000 VS Boston Celtics- 53.2= 7.6 times his salary value.
Kelly Olynyk $3,900 VS Minnesota Timberwolves- 27.5= 7.1 times his salary value.
David Lee $3,900 VS Minnesota Timberwolves- 26.1= 6.7 times his salary value.
Nikola Mirotic $4,800 VS Brooklyn Nets- 23.3= 4.9 times his salary value.
Gerald Henderson $3,500 VS Atlanta Hawk- 19.6= 5.6 times his salary value.
Allen Crabbe $3,900 VS Atlanta Hawks- 26.8= 7.1 times his salary value.
Big list? Yes . Did I use all the value plays in one line up? Heck No!
let’s break down how I find my value plays-
Minutes- I make sure my value play is getting more than 27 minutes or more for the game. If a starter sits out. I will target that player. Minutes = Opportunity
Vegas/Pace/Over-Under – I make sure it has both factors into my top value plays. I want to make sure they’re in a game they can thrive and get an opportunity. Look for the higher O/U game to see what value can get more points.
Injuries- If a player gets injured. I look at who the backup is. Making sure they get the following.
-Starting line up. (research for details if he will start or not )
-Minutes.
-Have had experienced in starting role.
Discounted price on regency Bias- When a player with a high ceiling is in a good position to thrive on due to his matchup. Although beforehand they’ve been under priced based on their performances. Sometimes players go under priced in great situations. Unlike NFL were they adjust prices weekly, NBA doesn’t upgrade overnight to a price that not affordable.
Usage Rate- I look at this when another player gets hurt. A great tool to use is Wowy. I love this tool so much. I use it every time a major player goes down. I also use it when 2-3 player are out. It allows me to get the maximum information on how a player does on the court, when another is it out .I highly recommend you learn how to utilize this tool. As I get my usage rate and other factors I take into effect to see how a player done without other on the court.
Price– Is their price consider a value for their salary. $3,500-5,000 is what I consider a value player.
UNLESS- I see a player that can reach 7x his value above that price. He falls into my category of a value play. (Karl Anthony-Towns & Marcin Gortat Tonight)
Match Up- Does this value player have a great or bad matchup?
Those are my steps of how I find my value players.
Now let me do a quick breakdown on my thought process through all the player I listed above.
Garret Temple $3,900 VS Sacramento Kings – 37.5 Points = 9.6 times his salary value.
- Minutes- On Sunday he got 37 minutes. He was going to start again with 2 starters out.
2. Vegas/Pace/Over-Under- Washington winning by 2.5 215 O/U.
3. Injuries- Yes, Otto Porter and Bradley Beal OUT. As well Nene and Humphries.
4.Usage Rate – High usage rate when so many players are hurt and none take shots like Temple.
Tim Frazier $3,500 VS Atlanta Hawks- 31.9 = 9.1 times his salary value.
- Minutes- With Lillard out, there was no PG on the Portland Trailblazer roster other than Frazier.So all the minute were left for him.
- Match Up- Atlanta Hawk are 27th VS PG
- Price- He was $3,500 dollar, Minimum salary. He needed 17.5 points to meet value.
- Injuries- Lillard was announced out in the morning.
- Recent performance as a starter –
| 27.8 | price 3500 | 2015-04-15 | @DAL | 30 minutes |
| 25.1 Points | price 3600 | 2015-02-20 | vs IND | 32 minutes |
| 25.1 Points | price 3600 | 2015-02-20 | IND | 32 minutes |
| 20.7 Points | Price 3500 | 2015-02-09 | GSW | 35 minutes |
Marcin Gortat $6,600 VS Sacramento Kings – 56.2= 8.5 times his salary value.
How did I get Marcin Gortat on my radar? I loved his price for what he been doing lately. I thought this was one of the picks I could make based solely on regency bias. I knew he would be contrarian play due to playing VS Demarcus Cousin. People say Cousin gets everyone in foul trouble. That’s true. Although with a Center like Gortat. Who plays physical and doesn’t jump for pump fakes or reaches in to steal a ball. I felt like this was a great position for him.
In this pick I used NBA WoWy the tool I suggest everyone to use.
Karl Anthony-Towns $7,000 VS Boston Celtics- 53.2= 7.6 times his salary value.
1. Matchup – Boston Ranks 21st vs C. Without Sullinger and Amir Johnson Out. I rank them dead last basically. KAT took advantage of that front court like he should’ve for 53 points.
2. Vegas/Pace/Over-Under- Both team in top 10 in pace factor. O/U 205.5.
3. Price- I loved that Towns was at $7,000, I saw his projection being 7 times his salary.
Kelly Olynyk $3,900 VS Minnesota Timberwolves- 27.5= 7.1 times his salary value.
David Lee $3,900 VS Minnesota Timberwolves-26.1= 6.7 times his salary value.
BOTH-
1. Minutes- Johnson and Sullinger out. Only Jebreko was available at PF. I like the minute opportunity.
2. Vegas/Pace/Over-Under – Boston winning by 8.5 O/U 205.5 and both team in top 10 pace factor.
3. Injuries- Both Johnson and Sullinger out
4.Price – Both 3900. I liked the price for the O/U that the total was at.
Nikola Mirotic $4,800 VS Brooklyn Nets – 23.3= 4.9 times his salary value.
- Injury- No there wasn’t a Bulls player hurt, but there was a starting lineup change . Snell was out. Mirotic was in.
2.Price- $4,800 for an SF that can rebound, steal, shoot 3s and get points. I’ll take that any day.
3.Match Up- Brooklyn Nets ranked 20th vs SF. - Recency Bias- I knew that Mirotic has started in the past so I gave him a chance based on his role change.
Gerald Henderson $3,500 VS Atlanta Hawk- 19.6= 5.6 times his salary value.
Allen Crabbe $3,900 VS Atlanta Hawks- 26.8= 7.1 times his salary value.
Both-
1. Injury- Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum both out. Allen Crabbe started. Gerald Henderson was the 6th man. I predicted Henderson to at least get 27 min of playing time. In which he got close to it, at 26 min.
2. Price- Both Cheap. Crabbe $3,900 and Henderson $3,500.
3. Usage Rate- No Lillard, no C.J. McCollum. I knew usage rate opportunity was going to be available for everyone.
4. Vegas/Pace/Over-Under- O/U was at 204 *Changed due to injuries and other stuff. I still targeted this game.
That does it for my breakdown on all my players and how I pick them out. I hope these resources were really good for you as they’ve been for me.
If you have any comments Or questions please ask away. I’ll reply as soon as I can
For a better way to look at my daily value plays. As I have a personal spreadsheet I create for my top plays and value picks of the days. Add my Facebook group page. Right below here.
The DFS Round Table
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