Well, I hope everyone took my warning and faded Anthony Davis. I kept him in 2 of my lineups just in case, and unfortunately one of them is playing well. Luckily I was prepared for him to be out, and I have a couple promising lineups so far.
Tonight’s slate is a typical huge Friday night. With 12 games on the docket, my Top Ten was difficult to whittle down to only 10. While I was doing my Top Ten and eliminating guys, I realized there is a big section of players I’m leaving out of my daily blog.
I have my Top Ten, which is the cream of the crop. I have my Dunks, which is typically guys under 6K but above 4.5k, and then I have my Punts, which are guys under 4.5K. That leaves out the guys in the second tier of players I like, so tonight I’ll add another segment called “Honorable Mentions”. I know, not very original, but it’s better than my first idea. “Other Players I Like”.
In an effort to cut down on the time it takes to write my blog, I’m just going to list them with their price tags, not a lot of narrative. It normally takes me close to 3 hours to write my blog. I know, I know, I type slow, what can I say. Not to mention I stop every 10 minutes to see how my Fanduel teams are doing, and I normally have one of the games playing on my iPad.
Any questions you might have as to why I like a player in the Honorable Mentions, feel free to ask me in the comments. So let’s tackle this huge slate of games…
Check out today’s Cost Versus Production Chart
Tonight’s Top Ten Plays
10) SG Giannis Antetokounmpo $7200 Listed as a shooting guard, he plays more of the small forward position, not that it matters. The Kings are worst versus the shooting guard and 3rd worst versus small forward over the last 3 weeks. So whatever position he plays, he needs to be in your lineups.
9) PF LaMarcus Aldridge $9800 The other night I put him in my Top Ten and mentioned that even though the Heat, by the numbers, defended the power forward well over the last 3 weeks, it was actually skewed because they hadn’t face any good power forwards in 3 weeks. Well, he went out and did exactly what I thought he would, he put up 54 Fanduel points. Well, same scenario applies tonight. The magic show well over the last 3 weeks versus power forwards, but they have only faced 2 teams with decent power forwards recently, Cavs and Rockets, and Kevin Love didn’t even play in that Cavs game. That was a long way to say Aldridge will be good to go again tonight.
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8) PF Nikola Mirotic $7000 How good has this guy been for the Bulls? So good that their best player from last year, Noah, can’t even get any playing time in the 4th quarter. His baseline value at 7K is 31 Fanduel points, a number he has reached in his last 5 games, and 8 of his last 10. A matchup with Toronto should not jeopardize that streak. Plug him and expect 35-40 points.
7) SF Rudy Gay $8300 The word right now is that Boogie will be out tomorrow and that Rudy’s knee is “fine”, according to Coach Karl. The rule lately has been when one of them is out, you must play the other. Their usage rate when both play is through the roof, it goes even higher when one of them is out. The Hornets are a tough matchup, but I still think he’ll get you 40-45 easy.
6) SG Dwayne Wade $8400 Someone forgot to tell Dwayne Wade that’s its 2015 not 2006. Over his last 6 games, after missing one, his lowest Fanduel point total was 33 with a high of 45. Now he gets a matchup with Denver that’s 3rd worst over the last 3 weeks versus shooting guards, I’ll pay his $8400 and watch him get me 40-45.
5) C Al Jefferson $8000 Two tough matchups and missing a game due to a knee injury will scare a lot of people away from Al. Not me. I see it as an opportunity to play him in a tourney in which he’ll be low-owned for those reasons. He’ll get the Boogie’less Kings, and even if Boogie suits up, he doesn’t play defense anyway. His baseline is about 36 points, he’ll reach that fairly easily.
4) PG Chris Paul $10200 Another guy I think will be low-owned, as people will be leery of the matchup. I’ve learned my lesson when doubting Chris Paul in a tough matchup, I’m not going to doubt him here. He is playing at home too, which helps. Ring him up for 50 tonight.
3) PF Anthony Davis $12400 Assuming he plays tonight, which isn’t a sure thing, but if he plays, even on one leg, he has to be in the Top Ten. I don’t really know what else to say about him. Do I really need to convince you to play The Brow? Didn’t think so. Golden State is dead last at giving up rebounds to power forwards. Davis could grab 25 tonight.
2) PG Steph Curry $10000 If you just look at his Fanduel points in his last 2, you’d think Curry was struggling lately, until you realize they were both blow-outs and he on played 30 minutes. This is a potential first round preview of the Western Conference Playoffs. Both teams will want to make a statement here, and because of those 2 low point totals, Curry’s price has come down some.
PG Russell Westbrook $13200 Was there any doubt? I have nothing to say about him that I haven’t already said.
Honorable Mentions
- SF Draymond Green $7700
- SF Kawhi Leonard $8300
- PG Elfrid Payton $6900
- PF Alexey Shved $7000
- PF Kenneth Faried $6900
- PF Thad Young $5800
- C Brook Lopez $6900
Dunks of the Night
- PG Rajon Rondo $5900 I think it’s time to take a look at Rondo. His price has come down, and look at his last 2 games in the assist column 13 and 11. Like him better if Conley is still out.
- PG Ish Smith $5500 He has finally earned himself the starting gig, and played well with it, and he gets New York tonight.
- PG Marcus Smart $5400 Played well versus OKC, a bad team versus the PG. Spurs are bad versus PG too.
- SG Danny Green $5700 With Ginobli out, he has been very up and down, but can get you 35+, great upside.
- SG Demarre Carroll $5800 He was the only one to show up the other night versus Golden State. The Thunder are a better matchup for him.
- PF Ersan Ilyasova $5400 He has played pretty well over his last 4 games against some very good defenses. Nets are not a good defense
- C Alexis Ajinca $4700 Only viable if Davis sits
Passes of the Night
- PG John Wall $9600 Chris Paul factor.
- PF Blake Griffin $9300 Tough interior defense, and he seems to be running out of gas as the games progress into the 4th.
- SG Monta Ellis $7000 Memphis Grizzlies factor, and Ellis is hard to trust.
Punts of the Night
- PG Greivis Vasquez $4000 Only if Lowry sits. Great matchup with Chicago.
- SG Leandro Barbosa $3600 Not sure if he’ll get 28 minutes again, but if he can get in the 20’s, he can reach value.
- SF Solomon Hill $4100 Getting good minutes, and has 25+ Fanduel points over his last 2 games.
- SF Hedo Turkoglu $3700 Not sure if he can play 33 minutes again, but with Barnes still out, he may have to.
- PF Dante Cunningham $4100 He was decent when Anthony Davis was out the last time. Only viable though if Davis is out.
That wraps up what I have for today’s slate. I’ll put up my “Things You Know” tomorrow, mid-day, like normal, so check back.
Things You Should Know, but Proably Don’t
- In 2 games versus New Orleans, Draymond Green had 33 and 42 Fanduel points
- In his 2 games versus the Nets, Alphabet had 42 and 39.8
- Brook Lopez had 23 Fanduel points in only 20 minutes his first game versus the Bucks. His second, with more minutes had 38 FDP.
- Steph Curry had 48.9 and 47.1 in 2 games versus New Orleans.
- Kyrie Irving has owned the Pacers this year with games of 48.5 and 41.3. Lebron is questionable.
- Paul Milsap in his only game versus OKC has 42.5. Tonight no Ibaka and no Kanter.
- The game to target tonight is ATL vs OKC. The game has a 212 over/under, the highest on tonight’s slate, and 1 point spread, the closest spread of any game.
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