NCAA Tourney Bubble Watch: Volume 3

Another week, another batch of bubble teams that have either helped or hurt their stock. This week there are some new teams that have really made some progress and helped their cause. Some have slipped backwards into the tourney worthy category or even, gulp, the dropped out category. Nevertheless, let’s look at some resumes and dissect where each of these bubble teams stand.

 Tourney Worthy:

Providence Friars (20-9):

Some may be surprised to see the Friars on here, but they have gone backwards for a while now. The Friars have two no doubt stars in forward Ben Bentil and point guard Kris Dunn, but have won just three of their previous nine games. Those wins have come against bottom feeders DePaul and Georgetown twice. However they also lost to DePaul once, got swept to then bubble team and now solidly in the field Seton Hall, and lost against Marquette. They still have 20 wins and have beaten Arizona and Villanova, but getting swept against Marquette and losing to DePaul will not help them if they suffer another bad loss this year.

Vanderbilt Commodores (19-11): 

Well finally. This is a team who looks like they want to go dancing. Vanderbilt has now won four in a row after suffering that ill-timed loss to bottom feeder Mississippi State, and have more importantly beaten Florida on the road and Kentucky at home in that stretch. Those two wins are critical in this time of the year as you have to beat teams that are on the bubble with you. However after posting a sweep of Florida, beating Kentucky, having beat Alabama, and possessing a non-conference strength of schedule of 57, this team has a strong resume and should be dancing.

Oregon State Beavers (17-10): 

Oregon State is a surprise for many this year, becoming a team that should be in the field in a matter of a few weeks. This team of course is led by Gary Payton II and his magnificent perimeter defense (shocking, I know) and his ability to create off the dribble. This team also has six wins against the RPI top 50, a non-conference strength of schedule of 50, an opponent’s strength of schedule of 13, and has no losses to teams with an RPI below 100. This team has an extremely strong resume and provided they can win one of their last two games, and avoid bad losses in the Pac 12 tournament this team should be in.

Staying in the Mix: 

 George Washington Colonials (22-8): 

The Colonials had a chance to help themselves by beating VCU on Sunday, but were unable to do so and therefore find themselves closer to being off the bubble and needing to win the Atlantic 10 tournament than in the field. The good news is Seton Hall is playing much better and looks like a tournament team giving them an extra quality win on their resume that features really only the win against Virginia in the non-conference as their top mark. A win against VCU would have given them a sweep and some more juice, but they fell short. Just remember that a non-conference schedule strength of 234 will not be much help when the committee decides the Colonials fate.

Alabama Crimson Tide (17-11): 

The Crimson Tide are now teetering back towards being off the bubble after having a very hot stretch for a little while. After losing to Mississippi State the Tide proceeded to get their doors blown off at Rupp Arena against Kentucky, something that the committee is sure to bring up. They do have some solid wins against Notre Dame, South Carolina and Texas A&M, but the Wichita State loss was when they were without Fred Van Vleet, meaning it will not carry the same weight. They do have a solid non-conference strength of schedule which should help, but they will need to win out considering their final two games are against Georgia and Arkansas. They also may need to win a couple SEC tournament games to feel safe.

Ohio State Buckeyes (19-11): 

Welcome to the bubble Ohio State. The Buckeyes picked up a crucial win against Iowa to go with their non-conference win over Kentucky, but still possess very little other than that. They also have losses to Louisiana Tech and Memphis on their resume that will bring them down a good amount. The Buckeyes need to beat Michigan State in East Lansing on Saturday and avoid bad losses in the Big Ten Tournament. They may have to even win a couple games in the Big Ten tournament, but I am sure they will take it considering they weren’t even on the bubble a few weeks ago.

Florida Gators (17-12):

The Gators have gone cold at the exact wrong time and have lost four games in a row, albeit against three tournament teams. Their resume is not that bad though as they have a strength of schedule of seven and a non-conference strength of schedule of four which will really help if they are pitted against another bubble team on Selection Sunday. The problem is their best wins are Saint Joseph’s and West Virginia in the non-conference. Those are good wins, but being 2-10 versus the RPI top 50 will not help their case of a deserving tournament team. First they need to beat Missouri and most likely make it to the SEC tournament final or the conference finals to have a chance.

Michigan Wolverines (20-10):

Michigan is closer to in the tournament than out, but a weak non-conference schedule is weighing them down. As is their record against the RPI top 50 of just 3-8. Their three wins however trump almost every other bubble team’s wins as they have beaten Maryland, Texas and Purdue. Their last game is at home against the suddenly beatable Iowa Hawkeyes. If they win that game, they are in the field safely, but if they lose they will be on the bubble. I like their chances, but they cannot handle anymore bad losses.

VCU Rams (21-8):

The Rams have been playing pretty well, but the loss against George Mason is a killer. That gives them their second very bad loss this year and considering their best out of conference wins are against Middle Tennessee and Buffalo, this team needs to win at Dayton and beat Davidson to feel secure on Selection Sunday. If they lose to Dayton, they may need to win some games in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and they need to beat good teams in that scenario. Should they face some lower seeded teams in the conference tournament they would need to win the whole thing. Best to win at Dayton and avoid that mess.

Dropped Out: 

Washington Huskies (16-13): 

The Huskies should consider themselves lucky to even be on the bubble at 16-13. With 13 losses already they hardly represent what the committee usually allows in the tournament. They also have an RPI of 76, which is lower than the committee usually allows in and are just 3-10 against the RPI top 50. Throw in the fact they have lost six of seven games and this team is heading way down. They need to win the Pac 12 tournament to be in.

Butler Bulldogs (19-9): 

Some people still think Butler has a shot, and I can see why. They had a promising start to the season that has buoyed them thus far, but their best wins against Purdue and Seton Hall. In addition their non-conference strength of schedule is 253, record against the RPI top 50 is 2-7, and even worse their record against the RPI top 150 is 8-9. That is hardly a tournament resume and this team needs some real help and soon. They need two more quality wins to be in, and honestly that would be the conference tournament finals most likely. Why not win the whole thing and take the suspense out of it?

 

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