NFL 2020 Week 13 Start n Sits

This is it. The final week to determine if you are going into the fantasy football playoffs (for most leagues anyway). So what are you going to do?

Teams on a bye: Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SUNDAY EARLY GAMES

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS, 45.5 O/U, SAINTS 3

This is a rematch of Week 11 game that the Saints won 24-9. Matt Ryan was sacked eight times in that game.

START: RUNNING BACK, LATAVIUS MURRAY, SAINTS: Since Taysom Hill has been under center, Murray has emerged as the second-best running option after Hill. In Week 11, Murray’s stats were 12-49, 2 targets. Last week against the Kendall Hinton led Denver Broncos, Murray out-touched Alvin Kamara and led the team in rushing yards, 19-124-2, 1 target. It appears as long as Hill is the “best quarterback” not named Drew Brees in New Orleans, Murray is your rushing option.

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, RUSSELL GAGE, FALCONS: This depends on the status and health of Julio Jones in Week 13. If Jones plays and is healthy, Gage becomes WR3 in the offense and his ceiling is lowered slightly. But this is an offense that ranks fifth in the league in passing yards averaging 271.4 a game. Ryan is better with Jones in, but after the Falcons destroyed the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12, you have to believe with or without Jones, they will be much better this time around against the Saints.

SIT: QUARTERBACK, TAYSOM HILL, SAINTS: Hill has averaged two rushing touchdowns in his two starts. He also has only attempted 39 passes completing 27. Last week against the Broncos he had 78 passing yards, zero touchdowns, one interception and three sacks. That is six sacks in two games. You can hope that he gets his rushing touchdowns, but there are better options at quarterback who can give you that and passing yards.

DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS, 45 O/U, BEARS 3.5 

This is the Lions’ first Matt Patricia less game.  

START: RUNNING BACK, DAVID MONTGOMERY, BEARS: While it is true that the Bears are 27th in the league in rushing yards per game (96.6), the Lions are giving up the most fantasy points per game to the running back position ( 30.4).  Montgomery for his part has shown some life both against the Lions this year (Week 1, 13-64) and last week against the Green Bay Packers (11-103).

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, MITCHELL TRUBISKY, BEARS: Let’s face it, there are no easy answers in this game.  Last week against the Packers, Trubisky was meh.  He finished 26-of-46, for 242 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, three fumbles and three sacks.  That those stats are meh…shows you where we are.  However, for whatever reason Trubisky seems to do okay against the Lions, in their Week 1 match, he went 20-of-36, for 242 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions and one sack.  And the Lions for their part haven’t gotten much better on defense since then. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, MATTHEW STAFFORD, LIONS: There is a chance that the change in head coach will lead to a resurgence.  But Stafford still has an injured thumb on his throwing hand and will be without the services (once again) of Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola.  

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS, 52 O/U, COLTS 3

This good news for the Colts is the return of Deforest Buckner. 

START: RUNNING BACK, JONATHAN TAYLOR, COLTS: Taylor should be back from his Covid quarantine, just in time.  The Texans are giving up the most rushing yards to the running back position than any other team in the NFL. 

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SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, KEKE COUTEE, TEXANS: The Texans released Kenny Stills and then Will Fuller and his 6.81 targets per game, was suspended for the remainder of the season.  This makes Coutee WR2 in an offense that ranks third in the passing game (277.3).  

SIT: TIGHT END, JORDAN AKINS, TEXANS: It would seem that Akins should reap some of the Fuller targets and it might happen.  But the Colts are surrendering the fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ NEW YORK JETS, 48 O/U, RAIDERS 7.5

The Raiders will need to wipe the embarrassment of Week 12 shellacking at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons away.  The Jets are just an embarrassment.  

START: QUARTERBACK, DEREK CARR, RAIDERS: It is completely inexplicable what happened to Carr last week.  But this is the week to erase those memories.  The Jets are giving up a 71.89% completion rate for the season.  They are allowing the third-most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns per game.  This is Carr time.

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, FRANK GORE, JETS: Cannot even begin to imagine the intricate offensive plan Adam Gase has for the game.  What we do know is that regardless of the game script, Gore is getting his.  Last week in Miami in a game that was over after the first quarter, Gore ended up with 18 carries for 74 yards and was targeted three times for three receptions.  

SIT: QUARTERBACK, SAM DARNOLD, JETS: I don’t believe that Darnold is a terrible quarterback, he has just been dealt a bad situation.  This week it will not improve.  The Raiders’ defense is 25th against the pass allowing a 62.7% completion rate.  In ordinary circumstances that would matter, but Darnold will come into the game with a 58.7% completion rate for the season, which includes his zero touchdowns, two-interception performance from last week. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, 54 O/U, TITANS 5.5

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett is set to return for this game. 

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START: RUNNING BACK, KAREEM HUNT, BROWNS: This game will be the run versus the run, Derrick Henry versus Nick Chubb and Hunt.  Neither side will blink and so expect plenty of work for both Chubb and Hunt.  It is also worth noting that last week against the Indianapolis Colts, the Titans allowed their pass-catching running back Nyheim Hines to get eight receptions on 10 targets.  

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, RYAN TANNEHILL, TITANS: While this game will be a complete run-fest, it may end up depending on which quarterback is the most efficient.  Against a good Colts defense last week Tannehill finished with 221 passing yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions.  He will come in with a 65% completion rate having thrown 25 touchdowns and four interceptions for the year.  The Titans as an offense are averaging 0.5 giveaways a game. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, BAKER MAYFIELD, BROWNS: There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a game manager.  Last week against an inept Jacksonville Jaguars defense, Mayfield passed for 258 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.  For the season he has 17 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.  The problem here is that the Browns have the 30th ranked passing game.  They have the number one rushing game.  And the Titans are forcing an average of 1.5 takeaways a game which can be Mayfield’s kryptonite. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, 41 O/U, MIAMI 11

Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to be the starter in this game as Tua Tagovailoa recovers from a thumb injury.

START: TIGHT END, MIKE GESICKI, DOLPHINS: Gesicki had all but disappeared until last week.  He was targeted five times which was the second-most on the team (DeVante Parker led the Dolphins with 14 targets).  This week Gesicki should continue his stride toward fantasy relevance as the Bengals are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (10.9).

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, SALVON AHMED, DOLPHINS: Ahmed missed last week with a shoulder injury.  The reports are that he is practicing and should return this week.  This is good news against a Bengals defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per attempt and just allowed New York Giants’ running back Wayne Gallman to rush for 94 yards and one touchdown last week.  

Do not be surprised if Myles Gaskin also returns in Week 13.  There should be enough to go around if both are healthy. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, GIOVANI BERNARD, BENGALS: Unfortunately with the loss of Joe Burrow, the entire offense is downgraded.  It now appears that Joe Mixon is not showing up anytime soon and the backfield is left to Bernard.  In his last three games, Bernard has eight carries for 30 yards, nine carries for 18 yards and last week eight carries for 32 yards.  His consistency is not fantasy viable. 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 52 O/U, VIKINGS 9

The Vikings are still in the playoff run after their last-minute defeat of the Carolina Panthers in Week 12.

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START: RUNNING BACK, ALEXANDER MATTISON, VIKINGS: The Jaguars are 29th against the run giving up an average of 136.2 rushing yards per game.  Gary Kubiak has come out and said that Dalvin Cook “is just kinda beat up”.  So this is just a hunch that in order to get him ready for a serious playoff run, Mattison will see more touches.  

SLEEPER: QUARTERBACK, MIKE GLENNON, JAGUARS: Okay, so Glennon wasn’t horrible last week.  He finished the game 20-of-35, for 235 yards and two touchdowns with zero interception.  He will most likely be playing from behind and the Vikings defense is 23rd in total defense and 26th in points allowed. 

SIT: TIGHT END, KYLE RUDOLPH, VIKINGS: Last week was a good week for Rudolph he had four targets and finished with seven receptions and 68 yards.  The problem is that the Vikings are primarily as run-first team and Adam Thielen is suspected to be back which will limit his targets. 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, 48.5 O/U, RAMS 3

Both are playing for their playoff lives.

START: RUNNING BACK, CAM AKERS, RAMS: Although the running back situation in LA is still  a bit murky, Akers appears to be rising to the top.  The Rams rushed the ball 28 times on 61 offensive plays last week.  Akers finished averaging 9.3 yards per carry, he had 84 yards, one touchdown and had a long run of 61 yards.  Meanwhile in addition to the impotence that was Jared Goff, running back Malcolm Brown had three rushes for four yards and a fumble.  That should eliminate one from contending with Akers…please. 

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, ANDY ISABELLA, CARDINALS: There is no denying that Kyler Murray is playing with a sore/injured throwing shoulder.  There is a question as to whether Larry Fitzgerald will return for this match-up. Even if he does we know that the Rams secondary, led by Jalen Ramsey is not to be toyed with, meaning short passes should rule the Cardinals game.  Isabella plays 77.9% of his snaps in the slot.  Christian Kirk plays 12.5% of his snaps in the slot.  Look for Isabella to get some target shares in this game. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, KENYAN DRAKE, CARDINALS: The Rams defense has allowed less than a 100 rushing yards per game.  Their pass rush has the sixth most sacks.  This is not only detrimental to Murray but will have a negative impact on the rushing game.  

NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 48.5 O/U, SEAHAWKS 7.5

Keep an eye on the status of New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.  

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START: RUNNING BACK, CHRIS CARSON, SEAHAWKS: The Seahawks may have taken a little reprieve from allowing Russell Wilson to do all the cooking.  Last week they ran the ball 30 times on 61 offensive plays.  Carson in his first game back rushed eight times for 41 yards and a touchdown.  His carries passed the eye test and he was targeted two times. The Giants are a decisive underdog if Jones is unable to suit up giving Carson a little more time to get meaningful reps. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, WAYNE GALLMAN, GIANTS: Gallman should be off the sleeper status and on to the start every week status, yet here he sits.  The Seahawks defense has improved with the addition of Carlos Dunlap, yet they are still the 26th defense in the league.  Gallman averaged 3.9 yards a carry with 94 yards and a touchdown in Week 12.  The Giants ran the ball 42 times on 80 offensive plays. 

SIT: QUARTERBACK, COLT MCCOY, GIANTS: This is not a knock on McCoy as much as it is the Giants’ offense without Jones.  With Jones, they are 30th in offensive scoring and still in the running for a playoff.  McCoy is going to be asked to keep up with the Seahawks’ fourth-ranked passing offense and third-ranked scoring offense, in Seattle where the Seahawks are undefeated this year. 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ GREEN BAY PACKERS, 47.5 O/U, PACKERS 9

Zach Ertz is expected back for this game. 

START: RUNNING BACK, MILES SANDERS, EAGLES: The Packers are giving up 114.5 rushing yards per game.  They just allowed Chicago Bears’ running back David Montgomery to rush for 103 yards on 11 carries.  Sanders was anemic in the Monday Night Matchup with the Seahawks, but so was the entire team.  For the season the Eagles are averaging 4.9 yards per play.  

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, JAMAAL WILLIAMS, PACKERS: It appears that the Packers are trying to make Williams a thing.  Last week he had the same amount of carries as Aaron Jones (17), Jones had more yards (90 to 73), but Williams had the touchdown. If they continue sharing touches, Williams becomes a thing in fantasy. 

SIT: TIGHT END, ZACH ERTZ, EAGLES: We all know that Carson Wentz loves his tight ends.  But this will be Ertz’s first game back from IR having last played in Week 6, and to  be honest, he wasn’t productive for the six games that he played.  Add to that the Packers are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position per game (8).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ LAS ANGELES CHARGERS, 47 O/U PK

Presumably, the Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn has told his players, “Playoff hunt probably, not going to happen” so there’s that. 

START: RUNNING BACK, AUSTIN EKELER, CHARGERS: Ekeler returned from IR last week with a vengeance.  He was not only the leading rusher (14-44) but was also the leading receiver (11-85) on 16 targets.  The Patriots’ defense is 21st against the run giving up 123.3 rushing yards per game and in their win against the Cardinals, last week allowed Drake two rushing touchdowns. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, DAMIEN HARRIS, PATRIOTS: The Patriots average the fourth-most rushing yards per game.  The Chargers are giving up double-digit rushing touchdowns.  Harris, outside of Cam Newton is the leading rusher on the team, averaging 5.1 yards per carry on 110 attempts. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, JOSHUA KELLEY, CHARGERS: Even before the return of Ekeler, Kelley was trending down.  He managed a decent fantasy game last week with a touchdown, but he only had seven carries for 35 yards.  The week before he had four carries for negative two yards. 

SUNDAY NIGHT GAME

DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 50.5 O/U, 14 CHIEFS

The Broncos will have a quarterback not named Kendall Hinton under center. 

START: RUNNING BACK, CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, CHIEFS: Some may be tempted to look past Edwards-Helaire after last week’s performance.  Just remember that game was against the number ranked run defense, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  This week the Chiefs will go against the 27th ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos who are surrendering 131.3 rushing yards a game.  

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, TIM PATRICK, BRONCOS: The Broncos should be behind most of the game.  Drew Lock is scheduled to return under center.  Taking last week out of the equation, Patrick has been targeted eight, six and nine times in the last three games.  This should be another game Lock relies upon Patrick.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, MELVIN GORDON, BRONCOS: As stated earlier this appears to be a game where the Broncos abandon the run for the pass early and often.  Gordon has not been used consistently in the passing game having only 10 total targets in their last five games and that includes seven targets in Week 8.

MONDAY NIGHT GAMES

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 44.5 O/U, STEELERS 10

The Steelers enter the game 11-0. 

START: WIDE RECEIVER TERRY MCLAURIN, WASHINGTON: If the Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback Trace McSorley and wide receiver Marquise Brown proved anything it is that the Steelers can be burnt with the long ball. Since Alex Smith has been under center, McLaurin has been on the field for at least 90% of the offensive snaps.  He is sixth in the NFL in wide receiver targets with 109 and he has at least a catch percentage of at least 74%.  While Smith is not known for the long ball, McLaurin adjusts by leading the NFL in yards after catch (143) and in the top five in forced missed tackles.  Both will come in handy when going against the Steelers’ secondary. 

SLEEPER: RUNNING BACK, ANTONIO GIBSON, WASHINGTON: There is a chance that Washington sneaks up on the Steelers. There is also a chance the Steelers defense will be without Bud Dupree, which softens the front seven slightly.  While formidable (rank eighth against the run) they did give up a rushing touchdown to Gus Edwards in Week 12.  

Gibson is coming off a three-touchdown, 115-yard performance on Thanksgiving day ( yes it was against the hapless Dallas Cowboys).  Momentum.  

SIT: RUNNING BACK, BENNY SNELL, STEELERS: The Washington Football team just held Ezekiel Elliott to 32 total rushing yards.  They are ninth in allowing opponents rushing touchdowns per game (0.8) and while Snell did have that massive run over of Marcus Peters, he didn’t see the end zone and there is a slight chance that James Conner returns from Covid quarantine.  

The Steelers as a team are 24th in rushing yards per game (102.2).

BUFFALO BILLS @ SAN FRANCISCO NINERS, 48 O/U, BILLS 2

This game will be played in Arizona.

START: WIDE RECEIVER, DEEBO SAMUEL, NINERS: Week 12 against the Rams defense, Samuel was targeted 13 times for 11 receptions and 133 yards.  The Bills’ secondary has given up four touchdowns to wide receivers in their last three games.  

SLEEPER: WIDE RECEIVER, GABRIEL DAVIS, BILLS: Wide receiver John Brown has gone the injured reserve route.  This puts Davis as WR2 on the outside.  Against the Chargers last week Davis was targeted four times for 79 yards on three receptions.  His snap count increased from 51% to 97%.  With quarterback Josh Allen slinging the ball downfield, Davis should get his. 

SIT: RUNNING BACK, ZACH MOSS, BILLS: Moss out-snapped Devin Singletary last week 60% to 40%, however, it was Singletary who was far more efficient.  Singletary finished the game with 11 carries for 82 yards and three targets.  Moss for all his time on the field finished with nine carries for 59 yards and two targets.  Until the running back situation clears itself up, or the Bills play a softer defense it is safer to stay away.  

TUESDAY NIGHT GAME

DALLAS COWBOYS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Cowboys are in a freefall.  The Ravens are looking to prevent theirs. 

The Ravens are still in a Covid-19 funk.  It remains to be seen if quarterback Lamar Jackson is eligible to play.  Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram should be eligible to return and the status of cornerback Jimmy Smith’s injury in unknown. Back-up quarterback Robert Griffin II, suffered a hamstring injury and his status if needed is unknown.  

Starting any Cowboys is just a fool’s folly, especially against this Baltimore Ravens’ defense who are ninth against the pass (217) and managed to hold the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers to 19 total points.  

 

Good Luck! 

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