NFL 2021 Quick Hit Rookie Redraft Outlook AFC West

2021 Quick Hit Rookie Redraft Outlook AFC West

It is almost time to start those fantasy drafts.  Here are how the rookies in the West are stacking up. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFTED:

TIGHT END, Noah Gray, Duke, Round5, 167

WIDE RECEIVER, Cornell Powell. Clemson, Round5, 181

TEAM STATISTICS & RANKINGS 2020 PER TEAMRANKINGS.COM

#5 PERCENTAGE OF PASS PLAYS PER GAME 62.57%

#3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PASS ATTEMPTS PER GAME  39.7

# 6 AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME 28.5

DEPTH CHART PER OURLADS.COM

LWR  Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, Marcus Kemp, Maurice Ffrend, Antonio Callaway

RWR  Mecole Hardman, Joe Fortson, Salton Schoen, Chad Williams, Tajae Sharpe

SWR  Demarcus Robinson, Cornell Powell, Gehrig Dieter, Chris Finke

TE  Travis Kelce, Mick Keizer, Blake Bell, Noah Gray, Evan Baylis

REDRAFT OUTLOOK—-GRAY

You are not drafting Gray as a tight end in the 2021 fantasy drafts.  Although he played in multiple positions at Duke, 237 snaps in the slot, 139 snaps inline, and 120 snaps out of the backfield, the depth chart in Kansas City is deep. 

Count on Gray making his field appearances on special teams.

REDRAFT OUTLOOK—POWELL

The path to redraft fantasy relevance is shorter for Powell.  Sammy Watkins is gone although he only played in 10 games in 2020, he still had 177 snaps out of the slot and 55 targets.  Watkins was responsible for a 76.1% target share. 

The receivers that remain not named Tyreek Hill did little to inspire confidence.  Both Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman averaged 3.9 targets per game.  Byron Pringle was on the receiving end of 17 total targets for the season. 

All three are speedsters.  This is not Powell’s forte.  Powell is “a nice-sized receiver with reliable hands as well as a good amount of upside.”

Powell has landed in an explosive offense that throws the ball around 63% of the time.  Watkins’ departure has left an opening that will either propel someone to WR2. 

Look for Powell to compete for WR3. This makes him a late…late flyer in redraft.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFTED:

WIDE RECEIVER, Josh Palmer, Tennessee, Round3, 77

TIGHT END, Tre’ McKitty, Georgia, Round3, 97

RUNNING BACK, Larry Roundtree, Missouri, Round6, 198

TEAM STATISTICS & RANKINGS 2020 PER TEAMRANKINGS.COM

#17 PERCENTAGE PASS PLAYS PER GAME 58.65%

#5   AVERAGE NUMBER OF PASS ATTEMPTS PER GAME 39.2

#18 AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME 24.0

#16 PERCENTAGE OF RUSHING PLAYS PER GAME 41.35%

#9   AVERAGE NUMBER OF RUSHING ATTEMPTS PER GAME 29.1

OURLADS.COM DEPTH CHART FOR LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

LWR  Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton, KJ Hill, John Hurst

RWR  Mike Williams, Tyron Johnson, Joe Reed, Jason Moore, Eli Stove

TE     Jared Cook, Stephen Anderson, Tre’ McKitty,  Donald Parham, Matt Sokol, Hunter Kampmoyer

RB    Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, Larry Roundtree, Darius Bradwell

REDRAFT OUTLOOK—PALMER

The Chargers enter 2021 with a new head coach and new offensive coordinator. 

Last season quarterback Justin Herbert attempted 595 passes, which was the fourth-most in NFL.  He boasted a 46.8% completion percentage when pressured and a 74.6% when throwing from a clean pocket. 

Palmer comes from an offense where 31% of his targets were uncatchable per Pro Football Focus.  He still finished the 2020 season with 274 yards and two touchdowns. 

Look for Palmer to compete for the WR3 position, making him a viable late-round redraft option. 

REDRAFT OUTLOOK—McKITTY

The Chargers lost tight end Hunter Henry, in free agency.  Henry was responsible for 92 targets and 87.3% snap share in 2020.  They acquired the services of Jared Cook during free agency as a stop-gap. 

It is unlikely that McKitty, who is coming off a knee injury, overtakes Cook in 2021.  In redraft, he is not an option.

REDRAFT OUTLOOK—ROUNDTREE

The most interesting redraft option is Roundtree.  Justin Jackson is in a contract year.  Joshua Kelley was less than impressive last season.  Kelley averaged 3.2 yards per carry and had issues with ball security that caused him to lose playing time to Jackson and Kalen Ballage.

Look for Roundtree to compete for RB2 work behind Austin Ekeler.  Don’t reach for Roundtree in redraft, but he is worth consideration off the waiver wire.  Keep a close eye on training camp, which may move him up to a late-round redraft option.  

DENVER BRONCOS

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFTED:

RUNNING BACK, Javonte Williams, North Carolina, Round2, 35

WIDE RECEIVER, Seth Williams, Auburn, Round6, 219

TEAM STATISTICS & RANKINGS 2020 PER TEAMRANKINGS.COM

#21 PERCENTAGE OF PASS PLAYS PER GAME 57.09%

#19 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PASSING ATTEMPTS PER GAME 34.8

#28 AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME 20.2

#12 PERCENTAGE OF RUSHING PLAYS PER GAME 42.91%

#12 AVERAGE NUMBER OF RUSHING ATTEMPTS PER GAME 27.6

DENVER BRONCOS DEPTH CHART PER ESPN.COM

RB  Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams, Mike Boone, Royce Freeman

WR  Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, Tyrie Cleveland, DeVontres Dukes

WR  Jerry Jeudy, Seth Williams, Trinity Benson, Warren Jackson

WR  Tim Patrick, Diontae Spencer, Kendall Hinton, Branden Mack

REDRAFT OUTLOOK—Javonte Williams

The Broncos have consistently employed a running back by committee approach.  In 2020, Phillip Lindsay played in 11 games.  He was on the field for a 39.3% snap share, 118 rushing attempts, and 14 targets.  Gordon was on the field for 64% snap share, 215 rushing attempts, and 44 targets. 

Lindsay is gone via free agency, and Williams is in the running back by committee fold.  The Broncos running backs will face the second-easiest schedule among running backs this season.

Gordon’s contract will expire after this year.  Williams was drafted in the second round by a team that has expressed their desire to run the ball more.  Williams led the FBS in broken tackles last season.  He is a bruising running back teamed with a dominant defense and a suspect quarterback. 

Look for Williams to overtake Gordon mid-way through the season.  This makes him a mid-round redraft option.  He is currently weighed down by the quarterback prospects of the Broncos, but things could change. 

REDRAFT OUTLOOK—SETH WILLIAMS

Williams is a depth draft on a team that has six viable wide receiver options ahead of him.  He is not a redraft option. 

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Embed from Getty Images

Raiders did not draft a wide receiver, running back, or tight end.

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.