NFL 2022: Grading New Head Coaches and Fantasy Implications

NFL 2022: Grading New Head Coaches

So, it is done.  All the teams without a head coach now have one, good, bad, and indifferent. 

Here are how the new coaches (and potentially your fantasy fortunes) are ranked from worst to first. 

Thanks to Pro Football Focus, Rotoballer, Over the Cap and Team Rankings for their stats. 

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9. Houston Texans and Lovie Smith

Team Needs: Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Cornerback, etc. 

Notable Free Agents: Justin Reid, Safety; Maliek Collins, DI; Tyrod Taylor, QB; Desmond King, CB; Jordan Akins, TE

Projected Cap Space: $17.9 million

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record 4-13; have the third pick in the draft

Lovie Smith

This is much less about Smith than the entire Texans organization.  An organization that paid Deshaun Watson to not play.  An organization that fired its one-year coach after he managed to win four games with a rag-tag group of men and an organization that is bereft of significant talent.

Reasons for fantasy optimism:  Pep Hamilton was retained and promoted to offensive coordinator.  But unless there is a major talent upgrade, remember last season the Texans were 23^rd in rushing attempts, 21 in passing attempts and 30^th in points scored. 

8. Miami Dolphins and Mike McDaniel

Team Needs: Offensive Line and Wide Receiver

Notable Free Agents: Mike Gesicki, TE; Will Fuller, WR; Emmanuel Ogbah, Edge; Jacoby Brissett, QB

Projected Cap Space: $63.7 million (1^st)

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record 10-7; have the 29^th pick in the draft from San Francisco

Mike McDaniel

By all accounts, McDaniel did not call offensive plays but was the run game coordinator and offensive coordinator that supplied some of San Francisco’s most creative play calling.  

This is about the dysfunctional narrative that seeps within the Dolphins camp.

Reasons for fantasy optimism: Those of you who are banking on Myles Gaskin or Jaylen Waddle being the east coast reincarnation of Deebo Samuel just need to pump the brakes.  

Look for this to be a bounce for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and for the Dolphins to pick up an elite-type running back and tight end via the draft and/or free agency.  

If Hunter Henry manages his way to Miami instant upgrade.  

McDaniel has already told you to start Waddle in your fantasy line-ups…so…

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7. New Orleans and Dennis Allen

Team Needs: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, Safety

Notable Free Agents: Jameis Winston, QB; Terron Armstead, T; Marcus Williams, S

Projected Cap Space: -$76 million (32^nd)

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record 9-8; have 18^th pick in the draft

Dennis Allen

Instead of going for something new the Saints promoted defensive coordinator Allen to head coach.  They also retained long-time offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. 

Allen has had some head coaching experience having coached the Raiders from 2012-2014.  He finished with an 8-28 record. 

Reason for fantasy optimism:

Alvin Kamara.  That’s it. 

The quarterbacks currently under contract in New Orleans are Taysom Hill and Ian Book.  (Jameis Winston is a free agent recovering from an ACL tear).

Michael Thomas is a will he or won’t he play. 

The Saints are woeful over the cap and currently have the 18^th pick in the draft. 

6. Chicago Bears and Matt Eberflus

Team Needs: Offensive Line, Wide Receiver, Cornerback

Notable Free Agents: Allen Robinson, WR; Akiem Hicks, DI; James Daniels, G; Germain Ifedi, OL; Bilal Nichols, DI; Andy Dalton, QB; Jason Peters, T; DeAndre Houston-Carson, LB, Tashaun Gipson, Safety

Projected Cap Space: $28.6 million

First Round Draft Picks: currently no first-round pick, their first pick 39^th overall

Matt Eberflus

Maybe the Bears should be a little higher, but Eberflus is a defensive-minded coach who will have to navigate a second-year quarterback whose first year did not do him any favors.

But if you are playing IDP remember the Colts under Eberflus were the only defensive unit to have two seasons ranked in the top-10 in takeaways and run defense. 

Reasons for fantasy optimism: There is much reason if you are playing IDP.  Last season under Eberflus, the Colts had 33 takeaways, with 19 interceptions and 14 fumble recoveries. 

There will always be reason for optimism if there is a viable dual-threat quarterback under center.  But if the offensive line doesn’t get better his value decreases.  

Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet’s outlook depends on (1) offensive coordinator and (2) who will replace Allen Robinson?  

David Montgomery is always lurking in the fantasy-relevant position.

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5. Las Vegas Raiders and Josh McDaniels

Team Needs: Wide Receiver, Cornerback, Linebacker

Notable Free Agents: Casey Hayward, CB; Marcus Mariota, QB; and Zay Jones, WR

Projected Cap Space: $20.5 million

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record 10-7; have the 22^nd pick in the draft

Josh McDaniels

So, the Raiders ‘interim’ coach Rich Bisaccia led a team that went through a season of unprecedented distractions to the postseason.  Bisaccia went 7-5 and had both Derek Carr and Max Crosby actively lobbying for him. 

The Raiders instead go with long-time New England Patriots offensive coordinator McDaniels.  McDaniels has had two-ish head coaching jobs; the pullout in Indianapolis in 2018, and the 2009-partial 2010 season with the Denver Broncos.  

McDaniel won his first six games as Denver’s head coach and then went 5-17.  

Reason for fantasy optimism: Last season the Raiders were the 26^th ranked red zone offense in terms of points per drive.  McDaniels and his rookie quarterback were sixth. 

The Raiders were 27^th in red zone touchdown percentage, McDaniels’ Patriots were 11^th. 

4. Jacksonville Jaguars and Doug Pederson

Team Needs: Wide Receiver, Tight end, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Cornerback, Safety

Notable Free Agents: DJ Chark, WR; Cam Robinson, T; Andrew Norwell, G; AJ Cann, G

Projected Cap Space: $59.3 million (2^nd)

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record, 3-14; have the first pick in the draft.

Doug Pederson

Another team that just seems to be flopping about like a fish out of water.  But if anyone can do something with Trevor Lawrence it appears to be Pederson.

Super Bowl winning coach Pederson sat out of football for one year.  Let us not forgot he made Nick Foles relevant for a short time. 

Reason for fantasy optimism:

Pederson will call the plays.  He prefers a run-first offense with multiple running backs.  In his first five seasons, he has had a top 11 rushing offense.  

Travis Etienne is recovering from a Lisfranc injury.  James Robinson isn’t expected to see the first half of the season with his late Achilles tear.  

As far as the quarterback, fantasyfootballers.com has him ranked 32^nd for his first season in the NFL.  He had a 59.6% completion percentage with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.  He was also handcuffed by Urban Meyer. 

Now with Pederson, Press Taylor, Offensive Coordinator; Mike McCoy, Quarterbacks Coach; and Jim Bob Cooter, Passing Game Coordinator; Lawrence should not be without the foundation to realize some of that potential that made him a no brainer number one pick. 

Speaking of Lawrence 65% of his passes went to his wide receiving corps.  

Laviska Shenault had 10 red-zone targets and zero touchdowns for the 2021 season.  

With draft capital and plenty of cap space, it will be interesting to see how Pederson and company improve PFF 24^th ranked offensive line and wide receiving corps. 

3. Denver Broncos and Nathaniel Hackett

Team Needs: Quarterback, Cornerback, Edge, Linebacker

Notable Free Agents: Teddy Bridgewater, QB; Melvin Gordon, RB; Bryce Callahan, CB; Kyle Fuller, CB; Bobby Massie, T; Alexander Johnson, LB; Kareem Jackson, S; Josey Jewell, LB

Projected Cap Space: $38.9 million

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record 7-10; have 11 total picks in the daft; have the ninth pick in the draft

Nathaniel Hackett

Even if he doesn’t bring Aaron Rodgers to Denver, Hackett’s offensive acumen precedes him.  Although he did not call plays in Green Bay as the offensive coordinator, he was responsible for game planning, and maybe Rodgers MVP seasons.

His philosophy, “The starting point is the outside zone.  Outside zone is what you want to do on offense, and you want to base that off the play-action pass.  You want to take shots down the field.”

Hackett will call plays in Denver. 

Reason for fantasy optimism:

It is not hyperbole to believe the Broncos are a quarterback away from post-season play.  Last season the Broncos were 23^rd in points and 19^th in yards.  

Drew Lock finished the season with a 59.3% completion percentage with 25 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.  But the Broncos will have tight ends Noah Fant and Albert Okuegbaunam, wide receivers, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler.  

There is also running back Javonte Williams.  Williams was in a timeshare last season with Melvin Gordon.  It is unlikely that Gordon will be a Bronco this season.

Williams in a timeshare finished the season as RB17.  He had a 34% missed tackles rate, while also hauling in 53 targets, for three receiving touchdowns. 

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2. New York Giants and Brian Daboll

Team Needs: Offensive Line, Linebacker, Edge

Notable Free Agents: Evan Engram, TE; Jabrill Peppers, S; Nate Solder, T

Projected Cap Space: -$10.7 million (27^th)

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record 4-13; have 10 picks in the 2022 draft; have the fifth pick in the draft and seventh (via Chicago)

Brian Daboll:

Former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Daboll is now the head coach of the New York Giants. 

Easy @theBLeagueSays, I know you think this is too high…but relax. Even though this is Daboll’s first head coaching job he does have 21 years of coaching experience.  That experience does include five Super Bowl Championship rings (with the New England Patriots) and one National Championship ring (with his one year as offensive coordinator with Alabama).  

Daboll is known for expanding his playbook by asking his players to give him the plays they liked best and including the plays in his playbook.  Daboll asked and met with Daniel Jones to get Jones’ favorite plays dating back to high school. 

Reason for fantasy optimism:

Per NFL Research the Bills have had a top-three scoring offense in each of the last two seasons, averaging 29.8 points per game.  The Giants have been last in scoring (16.3) over the past two seasons. 

The Giants aren’t without talent. Running back Saquon Barkley, wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney.  The issue is keeping them healthy on the field and of course underperforming. 

Golladay played in 14 games, had 74 targets, 37 receptions catching only 48.7% of his targets.  

Barkley played in 13 games and averaged only 45.6 yards per game.  He was third among all running backs in the percentage of carries that came against a stacked front.

And of course, there is Jones. In his three years, Jones QBR has been outside of the top 16.  

Can Daboll do for Jones what he did for Josh Allen?  Having a reliable quarterback will take pressure off Barkley (if he can remain healthy).

1 Minnesota Vikings and Kevin O’Connell

Team Needs: Cornerback, Offensive Line, Edge

Notable Free Agents: Anthony Barr, LB; Patrick Peterson, CB; Xavier Woods, S

Projected Cap Space: -15.6 million (29^th) 

First Round Draft Picks: 2021 record 8-9; have the 12^th pick in the draft

Kevin O’Connell:

Although he will come into this head coaching position with only seven years of coaching experience, he will also have a Super Bowl Championship ring. 

Plunking from the Sean McVay tree has proven to be fortuitous.  And this will see the Vikings going offensive, for the first time since 2010. 

Reason for fantasy optimism:

No matter what they decide for Kirk Cousins, this team is stacked for fantasy.  This is also a team that could potentially go from stacked to rebuild if Cousins departs and they lose Dalvin Cook. 

So, the off-season watch is in full force here. 

CONCLUSION

Fantasy fortunes for some of these teams will be won and lost during free agency and the draft.  But there is no denying there were some slam dunks in the choice of head coaches.  

Picking from the McVay tree has proven fruitful, with the likes of Zac Taylor, Matt LaFleur and Brandon Staley.  While going defense head coach with a second-year offensive quarterback is risky.

And then of course there is the potential organizational train wreck that is boiling in Miami and Texas.  

This off-season is going to be worth paying attention to. 

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