NFL 2022 Week 8 Start Sit
Holy shit balls, PJ Walker, outplayed Tom Brady and Taylor Heinicke under center for Washington to beat Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, and Daniel Jones led “the worst 5-1 team” to a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Just like we called it, right?
For those who play kickers (and if you watch @armchairathletics “The Trenches,” you know this week it mattered, and if you’re not watching…why aren’t you), Harrison Butker, and Brandon McManus both missed field goals (you can’t see it but this is my shock face).
Well, at least the bye apocalypse is over. Now we have an injury tornado. Just a few men, I am sure, were in your starting lineup and held a few DFS fortunes. Breece Hall went out in the first half, DK Metcalf went out with a knee injury, Njoku went out with a knee injury, and Amon Ra St Brown went out with a concussion.
In the immortal words of philosophical guru Taylor Swift…” shake it off.”
There are two teams on a bye this week, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Things being what they are, you may need to roster players in the early overseas game, the Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars.
Here are the top five fantasy leaders by position for Week7. Remember, this is PPR scoring.
And, of course, thanks to: fantasypros.com, footballdatabase.com, Razzball.com, teamrankings.com, Sharp Analysis, and fantasyprofiler.com.
TOP 5 FANTASY QUARTERBACKS WEEK 7
- Joe Burrow v Atlanta, 39.24 fantasy points
- Andy Dalton @ Arizona has 29.54 fantasy points
- Daniel Jones @ Jacksonville has 28.78 fantasy points
- Patrick Mahomes @ San Francisco, 27.92 fantasy points
- Justin Fields @ New England Patriots, 24.36 fantasy points
QUARTERBACKS
First, it goes without saying that you are starting your studs each week. This little list is for those amongst us who have Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert. ( I, for one, will be starting Sam Ehlinger in place of Mahomes this week. I’m not suggesting you do the same just wanted you to know if you wanted to send some good fantasy football mojo my way this weekend). And second, good on you, Justin Fields…good on you, young man.
MUST START
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings v Arizona Cardinals, 49 o/u, Minnesota -3.5
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The line for this game has moved a whole point since opening betting it (starting ed -4.has 5) and gone up 0.5. So, not only does Vegas predict this game will be more competitive, but it will have slightly higher scoring than initially believed.
Cousins will not often be a “must-start,” but here we are. The Vikings are coming off their bye week. In his last three games before the bye, Cousins had four touchdowns and two interceptions. He had not attempted more than 41 passes and had not passed for more than 296 yards all season.
Fast forward to the Arizona Cardinals’ defense. The Cardinals have given up an average of 258.6 passing yards per game (25th). Teams are averaging 36.4 passing attempts per game against them (25th), and they are 25th in passing touchdowns per game allowed (1.7). They do get high marks for consistency in rankings.
They also give up the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (19.5).
SHOULD START
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions, 51 o/u, Miami -3.5
The Detroit Lions allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (20.8). In their last three games, they have given up four passing touchdowns. Geno Smith scorched them for 320 passing yards, Bailey Zappe 188, and Dax Prescott in his return 207 passing yards.
This will be Tagovailoa’s second game back after his concussion scare. Last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, he threw caution to the wind and went into each play with no holds barred. He finished the game with 35 passing attempts, 261 yards, and a touchdown. Tagovailoa also ran four times for 15 yards.
For the season, Tagovailoa is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, 259.2 yards per game, and has nine passing touchdowns on three interceptions.
This game has the highest over/under, with the Dolphins implied total of 29. Three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown for the Dolphins feels just right.
MEH
Daniel Jones, New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks, 44.5 o/u, Seattle -3
Speaking of line changes, this game started 46.5 o/u with Seattle -2.5. Now it appears Vegas wants more scoring and Seattle a slightly better edge (please don’t tell @theBLeagueSays).
Jones has been better than advertised (both of these teams have). Jones will enter Week8 as QB9 in fantasy ahead of Tom Brady (QB12), Aaron Rodgers (QB18), and Matthew Stafford (QB25).
Last week he threw for over 200 yards and rushed for over 100 yards.
The Seahawks are quarterback friendly. Going into last week’s matchup, they allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt while giving up 37 points per game. The Seahawks give an average of 18.2 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (11th).
LONG SHOT
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills, 47.5 o/u, Buffalo -11.5
There is a reason this is called a long shot. I am in no way suggesting that you play Rodgers this week. And I am in no way suggesting you sit him either.
Rodgers is going into Buffalo a double-digit underdog (the line started at -10.5). He hasn’t been a double-digit underdog in forever, as in never. And yes, the offense looked so bad last week against Washington.
Losing 21-23, Rodgers passed for a >gasp< measly 194 yards with two touchdowns. It wasn’t pretty.
His receivers look young, and Alan Lazard has a shoulder injury.
And, oh yes, the Bills’ defense is legit. They allow an average of 205.3 passing yards a game (11th) while limiting their opponents to an average of 0.8 passing touchdowns per game (3rd). (WTF is 0.8 touchdowns! I hate math) And as far as fantasy points per game to the position, they are allowing the third-fewest, 10.8.
But Rodgers is just that stubborn asshole who will go into this game and throw for four touchdowns and maybe quarterback sneak one in, which will all be a losing effort but impressive, nevertheless.
Or he could succumb to the Bills’ greatness. I don’t know. I feel the former rather than the latter will happen…but that’s why it’s a long shot.
TOP 5 FANTASY RUNNING BACKS WEEK 7, PPR SCORING
- Austin Ekeler v Seattle, 36.70 fantasy points
- Josh Jacobs v Houston, 36.50 fantasy points
- Kenneth Walker III, @ Los Angeles Chargers, 28.8 fantasy points
- Aaron Jones @ Washington, 28.6 fantasy points
- Rhamondre Stevenson v Chicago, 23.4 fantasy points
RUNNING BACKS
Here is what we are going to do. Per Pro Football Reference, the top three defenses allow most fantasy points to the running back position (minus the Los Angeles Chargers, who are on a bye and come in at number three).
Houston Texans’ defense allows an average of 26.4 fantasy points per game to the running back position. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns and 812 rushing yards to the position in six games.
Detroit Lions’ defense is giving up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (25.3). They have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 779 rushing yards to running backs.
Cleveland Browns are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back position (23.9). They have allowed running backs to run for 807 yards in seven games. They have also given up 35 targets and two receiving touchdowns to the running back position.
MUST START
Derrick Henry v Houston Texans
SHOULD START
Raheem Mostert @ Detroit Lions
MEH
Joe Mixon @ Cleveland Browns
LONG SHOT
Devin Singletary v Green Bay Packers
Oddly enough, Singletary’s primary usage has come in competitive games. If we go by my half-baked theory that this game will somehow be competitive, Singletary will be fantasy silver (the men mentioned above are already gold status). Here is the thing 11-points favor the Bills against the Packers.
While the Packers have only allowed four rushing touchdowns so far this season, they have given up 855 rushing yards, second-most in the league, while only allowing 192 receiving yards on 41 targets to the position mid-range (18th).
TOP 5 FANTASY WIDE RECEIVERS WEEK 7, PPR SCORING
- Ja’Marr Chase v Atlanta, 33.0 fantasy points
- Tyler Boyd v Atlanta 29.5, fantasy points
- Mecole Hardman @ San Francisco, 28.0 fantasy points
- JuJu Smith-Schuster @ San Francisco, 25.4 fantasy points
- Parris Campbell @ Tennessee, 23.0 fantasy points
WIDE RECEIVERS
MUST START
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles v Pittsburgh Steelers, 43.5 o/u, Eagles -10.5
The Steelers are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to receivers (43.7).
Smith is on the field for 92.3% of the offensive snaps and has a 24.9% target share. Before the bye week, he ran 28 routes for five targets, five receptions, and a touchdown. In six games, Smith has had four double-digit fantasy points.
In their last three games, the Steelers have allowed the consensus WR2 to flourish: Gabe Davis: six targets, three receptions, 171 yards, and two touchdowns
Chris Godwin: 12 targets, six receptions, 95 yards
Jaylen Waddle: five targets, four receptions, 88 yards
There is no reason to believe Smith will not follow the trend.
SHOULD START
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans, 40.5 o/u, Titans -2
The Titans have lost a point and a half since the opening line, and the game has gone down a full point, making this one of the lowest implied totals for the week.
In their last three games, the Titans have given up at least one receiving touchdown and the third-most fantasy points (29.1) to the wide receiving position.
Cooks hasn’t had a good fantasy year. Nico Collins is out, meaning more targets for Cooks. In a game that implies two touchdowns for the Texans, Cooks should be on the receiving end of at least one of them.
MEH
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks, 44.5 o/u, Seahawks -3
The Giants have been winning ugly, and that is okay. A win is a win.
Robinson was targeted eight times for six receptions and 50 yards in the first half of last week’s game. Then he left with an undisclosed injury.
Keep tabs, but it appears he is good for this game.
Seattle is giving up 18.1 fantasy points to the wide receiver position, the fifth fewest, while allowing five touchdowns and 923 receiving yards to the position.
LONG SHOT
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints v Las Vegas Raiders, 50 o/u, Raiders -1.5
Yikes! This game opened at 47.5.
In six games, Olave leads the NFL with 912 air yards. He is quarterback foolproof. Throw in Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston. It does not matter. Olave averages 9.3 targets per game, and his average target depth is 16.3.
The Raiders are not only giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (21.5), but they have also allowed six touchdowns and 1002 receiving yards. Receivers are averaging 12.5 receptions and 167 receiving yards against them.
TOP 5 FANTASY TIGHT ENDS WEEK 7, PPR SCORING
- George Kittle v Kansas City, 21.8 fantasy points
- Juwan Johnson @ Arizona has 20.2 fantasy points
- Travis Kelce @ San Francisco, 15.8 fantasy points
- Pat Freiermuth @ Miami 15.5 fantasy points
- David Njoku @ Baltimore, 14.1 fantasy points
“My darling girl, when are you going to realize that being normal is not necessarily a virtue? It rather denotes a lack of courage.” –Aunt Francis Practical Magic
Love your abnormalities. Be abnormal always. Happy Halloween!
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