NFL 2022 Week 11 “The Better Than a Start/Sit Article” Start/Sit Article

It is Week11, and I feel like it is a cheat code week. The Fantasy Cheatsheet is also the name of a very interesting podcast you should have in your podcast arsenal. 

As I said, there are four teams on a bye this week. They are the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All have fantasy value that will be missed this week.

Don’t fret. There is still value to be had. But before we do that, let’s get to the standouts from last week. Thank you, fantasypros.com.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Top 7 (PPR Formats)

QUARTERBACKS

1. Justin Fields, 40.38 fantasy points v Detroit Lions
2. Patrick Mahomes, 32.14 fantasy points v Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Tua Tagovailoa, 23.40 fantasy points v Cleveland Browns
4. Jalen Hurts, 22.80 fantasy points v Washington
5. Matt Ryan has 22.68 fantasy points Las Vegas Raiders
6. Josh Allen, 21.60 fantasy points v Minnesota Vikings
7. Dak Prescott has 21.20 fantasy points Green Bay Packers

RUNNING BACKS

1. Jonathan Taylor has 24.30 fantasy points Las Vegas Raiders
2. James Conner has 23.60 fantasy points Los Angeles Rams
3. Dalvin Cook, 23.60 fantasy points @ Buffalo Bills
4. Aaron Jones, 23.60 fantasy points v Dallas Cowboys
5. Saquon Barkley, 23.0 fantasy points v Houston Texans
6. Josh Jacobs, 22.60 fantasy points v Indianapolis Colts
7. Jeff Wilson Jr., 22.30 fantasy points v Cleveland Browns

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Cee Dee Lamb, 38.0 fantasy points @ Green Bay Packers
2. Justin Jefferson has 35.30 fantasy points Buffalo Bills
3. Christian Watson, 32.70 v Dallas Cowboys
4. Christian Kirk, 31.50 @ Kansas City Chiefs
5. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, 28.90 fantasy points v Denver Broncos
6. Davante Adams, 27.60 fantasy points v Indianapolis Colts
7. Stefon Diggs, 24.80 fantasy points v Minnesota Vikings

TIGHT ENDS

1. Cole Kmet, 23.40 fantasy points v Detroit Lions
2. Travis Kelce, 20.1 fantasy points v Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Dalton Schultz, 17.40 fantasy points @ Green Bay Packers
4. Juwan Johnson, 15.40 fantasy points @ Pittsburgh Steelers
5. Tyler Higbee, 15.30 fantasy points v Arizona Cardinals
6. Foster Moreau, 13.3 fantasy points v Indianapolis Colts
7. TJ Hockenson has 11.5 fantasy points Buffalo Bills

And away we go. Listen, with the quarterbacks. I feel I am not telling you things you don’t already know. But I am going to tell you anyway.

QUARTERBACKS

MUST START

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons, 49 o/u

Now I feel you are just being stubborn if you are not starting Fields across every fantasy forum. Remember last week when I said, “I would love the game more if it were played in Detroit?” Well, I am here to tell you wishes do come true.

I know it’s not in Detroit but indoors in Atlanta. Indoors making it as a track meet, you know, fast with no outside interference to interfere with his greatness.

Field’s floor is ridiculous, and his ceiling is slate-breaking. And now he is indoors against the Falcons, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

Last week D’Onta Foreman rushed for 130 yards and a touchdown ( I know ), but PJ Walker passed for 108 yards on 16 attempts. Walker also rushed for 14 yards.

This is like me telling you the sky is blue or grey, depending on where you are—start Fields, for god’s sake.

SHOULD START

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers v Kansas City Chiefs, 50 o/u

This is not the Herbert that we are used to seeing. He has averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game with 2450 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Yes, his weapons have been injured, but…Keenan Allen is supposed to be back this week.

It certainly helps that the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed every quarterback but two to collect at least 20 fantasy points against them. (In case you were wondering what two that would be, Matt Ryan and Malik Willis)

Herbert should serve you well in a game with the highest over-under this week.

MEH

Daniel Jones, New York Giants v Detroit Lions, 45 o/u

Doesn’t it feel appropriate that Jones ends up with the ‘meh’ designation? He has neither the flash of Fields nor the charisma of Garoppolo. But what the hell is he winning?

Last week coming off their bye week, Jones attempted only 17 passes. He finished with 197 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also rushed for 24 yards, which, as we know, raises that floor. He has rushed for 24, 20, and 107 yards in his last three games.

He isn’t Saquon Barkley, but his rushing upside makes him viable, especially against the porous Lions’ defense that gives up the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (23.0).

LONGSHOT

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals, 43.5 o/u

The predictive points in this game are gross. But Garoppolo is surrounded by weapons and is eerily consistent. His fantasy floor is around 17 points, and now he gets the Cardinals, who have allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 20.9 fantasy points per game in the last month.

With Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith (yeah, I said it), and Tom Brady out this week, there are worse options than Garoppolo.

RUNNING BACKS

MUST START

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons v Chicago Bears

I know he disappointed you last week. Disappointment is a part of life, my friends. This is what we do know. The Falcons rush the ball on 56.07% of their plays, the second most in the league. They attempt 32.8 rushing attempts per game, fourth most in the league, and Patterson, before the injury, was an integral part of that.

In his first week back, Patterson was on the field for 37% of the offensive snaps. Expect more playing time this week.

The Bears are giving up 25.9 fantasy points per game to the running back position. On runs to the outside, they have allowed 1024 rushing yards. Patterson averages 5.0 yards per carry-on run to the outside. Four of his five carries were outside the tackle in his limited time on the field last week.

SHOULD START

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

There are reasons to be worried about this game, as neither team is known for its speed of play. But the good news is that both teams love the run. (We will never do a victory lap over someone’s injury). And the better news (well, not better, but more helpful for Montgomery) is that he will no longer be in a timeshare for at least the next four weeks.

Montgomery is due for a positive touchdown regression since he hasn’t seen the end zone since Week7. In the past two weeks, the Falcons have allowed three rushing touchdowns, including 130 rushing yards and a touchdown to D’Onta Foreman last week.

MEH

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills v Cleveland Browns

I am oddly intrigued by Singletary.

WEEK8 v Green Bay Packers, 75.5% snap share, 14 carries, two red zone carries, two targets, 18 routes

WEEK9 v NYJ, 75.0% snap share, eight carries, two red zone carries, five targets, 18 routes

WEEK10 v MN, 70.8% snap share, 13 carries, five red zone carries, two targets, 26 routes

Like the snap share, as the red zone carries, I love the matchup. The Browns allow the second-most fantasy points to the running back this season (30.4). And then there are reports of really bad weather happening in Buffalo.

So, a quarterback with a suspect arm and lots of snow does it seem like a running game.

LONGSHOT

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

When did Dan Campbell become a liar… liar’s pants on fire? Unless “more work” equals 31% of the offensive snaps.

For fantasy purposes, we are lucky he finished his 12 yards with a touchdown, finishing fourth in the Lions’ backfield in rushing yards. Oh, did I forget to mention that Justin Jackson is now part of the running back equation in Detroit?

Swift has the talent. The Lions are playing it safe with him. Safe is not what we want in a fantasy running back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

MUST START

Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling missed practice. This is addition by subtraction.

Last week with Smith-Schuster and Hardman out, Toney was targeted five times with four receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown.

The Chargers have been stingy against the wide receiver position, giving up only 19.7 fantasy points per game.

But the Chiefs pass the ball on 64.38% of their offensive plays, fourth-most, while the Chargers pass the ball on 65.95% of their offensive plays, second most—the Chiefs average 66.4 plays per game, and the Chargers 67.6 (sixth and second respectively).

This should be a shootout with 50 total implied points and somebody to get the damn ball.

SHOULD START

Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco 49ers

The next two suggestions are gross. Not because of the players but because of their offensive systems. They both have high ceilings even though they play in dysfunctional offenses.

Moore’s functionality depends on the return of Marquise Brown.

MEH

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos v Las Vegas Raiders

And Sutton’s productivity depends on whether Jerry Jeudy returns from injury.

Is this lazy writing, perhaps but both of these men have potential high ceilings.

Moore has had 13, 10, and eight targets in his last three games. He has had 94, 69, and 92 receiving yards in those three games and one touchdown.

Sutton has had 11 targets, four and nine targets with Jeudy on the field.

The 49ers are giving up 21.5 average fantasy points to the wide receiver position, while the Raiders are giving up an average of 21.3 fantasy points to the wide receiver position.

Last week the Raiders gave up 76 receiving yards and a touchdown to Parris Campbell, and DeAndre Carter collected 64 receiving yards and a touchdown on the 49ers.

Both the meh and they should start coming with complications. Both have ceilings that will be reduced if Brown or Jeudy can play.

And at least one is hampered by a quarterback that has underplayed his potential all season.

Arizona averages 40.1 passing attempts per game (fourth), and the Broncos pass 35.1 average times per game (15^th).

The Broncos’ implied total is 41.5, while the Cardinals implied total is 43.5.

LONGSHOT

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings v Dallas Cowboys

There was a certain amount of bro love you could count on between Thielen and Kirk Cousins. And then TJ Hockenson happened.

In the two games with Hockenson on the field, Thielen has had 14 targets, eight receptions for 116 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. If you remember, the touchdowns made Thielen’s fantasy relevant.

Hockenson is now the WR2 option in the Vikings’ offense. Hockenson has had 19 targets and 16 receptions in his last two games. Thielen has had 14 targets and eight receptions.

Good luck employing Thielen for your fantasy banzai!

“This is a very simple game. You throw the ball. You catch the ball. You hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.” ~ Nuke LaLoosh, Bull Durham

Different game same sentiment.

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