NFL 2022 Week 15 Better Than Start Sit Article Start Sit Article
Welcome to Week 15, better known as the Fantasy Football Playoff Week. Now it is serious. If you didn’t make the playoffs this season, don’t fret ( I missed three leagues by point differential—ugh). There is always DFS and, well, next year.
So, with the carnage that was this season and Monday night, I hope you went aggressively on the waiver wire. And now, it is time to decide who to put in your lineup. Where is the best matchup, and how will it get you to the next round?
Before we do that, let’s see who propelled you to the fantasy playoffs in Week 14. (Remember this is PPR scoring)
Quarterbacks
- Trevor Lawrence 33.42 fantasy points
- Jalen Hurts 30.38 fantasy points
- Russell Wilson 26.58 fantasy points
- Jared Goff has 26.10 fantasy points
- Kirk Cousins 25.00 fantasy points
Quarterbacks
Must Start
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles, 48.5 o/u, Eagles -9
Fields seems like both a “no-brainer” and an “uh-oh” concurrently, is that even possible? Coming off a bye, we know what Fields is capable of, and watching the Eagles, we know what they are capable of, like giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position.
But this is Justin “just run the damn ball” Fields. Fields have run for a minimum of 60 yards in six consecutive games. Before the bye, he passed for 254 yards against the Green Bay Packers.
His rushing ability alone gives him a higher floor, and besides, the Eagles allowed Daniel Jones to rush for 26 yards and a rushing touchdown. The high floor is what Fields brings and a potentially higher ceiling than the fourth-fewest fantasy points standard.
Should Start
Dax Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars, 47.5 o/u, Cowboys -4
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I know that Houston’s smash spot didn’t work out that well for Prescott and the Cowboys (but hey, at least they won).
The “problem” with Prescott is Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, the lower Prescott’s ceiling. But the Jaguars bring a hint of optimism. They have allowed three of the last five quarterbacks they met to score at least 24 fantasy points. And we know Prescott scored 24 fantasy points in his last two games away from Jerry World.
Meh
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings v Indianapolis Colts, 48.5 o/u, Vikings -4
Remember, this is the first game on the Saturday Night football slate. Is that prime time because we all know that would make a difference?
Repeat we are not chasing the 425 passing yards and two touchdowns from last week.
We are chasing the 18+ fantasy points that Cousins put up in five home games. And we are relying on the Colts, who have given up 17+ fantasy points to six different quarterbacks.
Long Shot
Mike White, New York Jets v Detroit Lions, 44.5 o/u, pickem
I want to believe in the Mike White hero narrative. I saw him get crushed not once but twice by the Buffalo Bills and return to the game crushed.
And now he is in what can only be deemed a smash spot at home against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are giving up an average of 23.3 fantasy points to the quarterback position. They have allowed 21 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns to the quarterback position.
And now they say Zach Wilson is suiting up as QB2 for this game. Should I be reassured or worried…I just don’t know…hence the long shot.
Running Backs
- Jerick McKinnon 32.40 fantasy points
- Christian McCaffrey 29.30 fantasy points
- Miles Sanders 28.50 fantasy points
- Austin Ekeler 24.40 fantasy points
- James Conner 23.40 fantasy points
Running Backs
Must Start
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans, 49.5 o/u, Chiefs -14
I know it feels weird right promoting a running back on a Patrick Mahomes team. But it cannot be denied that the Texans allow most fantasy points to the running back position (29.5).
It is also pretty clear that Pacheco is averaging 14.2 rushing attempts per game, has 1.7 yards after contact, and is averaging 68.5 rushing yards per game.
Yep, this feels weirdly good (that’s a thing, right).
Should Start
Zonovan Knight, New York Jets v Detroit Lions, 44.5 o/u, pickem
Even with Michael Carter back, Knight was on the field for 47% of the offensive snaps and 17 carries.
It stands to reason that the Jets will want to protect quarterback White this game, and there is no better protection than a running back averaging 5.3 yards per touch and having nine red zone touches in his three games.
The Lions’ defense is improving, but they still allow 3.3 yards after contact, 17.1 fantasy points to the running back position, and 13 rushing touchdowns.
Meh
JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns, 37 o/u, Browns -3
The Ravens may be starting their third-string quarterback. And remember, this is also a Saturday Night game.
It is also possible that even though Dobbins played 43% of the offensive snaps last week, Gus Edwards, Patrick Ricard, or Kenyan Drake snake some of that playing time.
But for the plus side, the Browns have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (14), and with an implied total of 37 and what we know of the Ravens’ offense, the scoring will most likely come from the rushing side.
The question is who.
Long Shot
Alvin Kamara v Atlanta Falcons, 43o/u, Saints -4
Did you know that the Saints score 6.8 more points at home than they do on the road? This is one of those stats you just throw out because I am not sure it will help the Kamara situation.
Speaking of which, what is the Kamara situation? This is not the Kamara we were promised (albeit the assurances were our own making during fantasy drafts). And we are now in fantasy playoffs and wondering whether we should start Kamara…what the heck.
On the plus side, the Falcons are giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to the running back position (25.6). And yes, in their last meeting, Kamara had 39 yards on nine carries and three receptions on four targets, but he was limping into and out of that game.
So, because it is the Holiday season, and we believe in Holiday magic, this week will be different (she says wistfully).
Wide Receiver
- Justin Jefferson 33.30 fantasy points
- Jerry Jeudy, 33.30 fantasy points
- Ja’Marr Chase 28.50 fantasy points
- Mike Williams 23.60 fantasy points
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, 22.40 fantasy points
Wide Receivers
Must Start
Terry McLaurin, Washington v New York Giants, 40.5 o/u, Washington -4.5
This a reminder this is a Sunday Night Prime Time game.
McLaurin has a 23.1% target share and 22.3% target rate and is on the field for a 91.3% snap share. He also owns the Giants. He has had 494 receiving yards and three touchdowns in five meetings against the Giants. In their last meeting (week 13), McLaurin received 12 targets, eight receptions, 105 yards, and a touchdown.
Now the Giants have surrendered four receiving touchdowns in their last two games (one was to McLaurin), and receivers have gained at least 60 receiving yards while scoring those touchdowns (McLaurin had 105).
Count on McLaurin showing up and showing out in Prime Time.
Should Start
Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings, 48.5 o/u, Vikings -4
The Vikings are a sieve against the passing game. They are giving up an average of 11.5 fantasy points to the slot position and 33.3 fantasy points to the wide. Michael Pittman has a 15.1% slot snap rate and a 24.9% target share. Pierce’s average depth of target is 12.2, and his target share is 14% ERRRRRRRR!
The Colts average 36.9 passing attempts per game (6th) but only 34.3 in the last three weeks! When last seen, there were getting hammered by the Dallas Cowboys and Matt Ryan still only had 37 passing attempts.
The good note is that Pierce led in targets (8), receptions (4), and receiving yards (86), and he had a touchdown.
The bad note is that can we trust Ryan and the Colts even in a smash must start as this? I hope so.
Meh
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers v Tennessee Titans, 47.5 o/u, Chargers -3
Hello Mike Williams. I was speaking of the circle of trust. Last week he returned with 116 yards on six receptions and a touchdown.
Williams has always been that boom-or-bust type of guy, hence the reluctance to put him in the center of the circle of trust.
However, this week we are putting a little bit of that trust in the atrocity that is the Tennessee Titans’ secondary. They have given up 14 touchdowns and the second-highest fantasy points to the perimeter receiver, which is the space that Williams likes to inhabit.
Mr. Williams gingerly entered the circle of trust.
Long Shot
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Cincinnati Bengals, 44 o/u, Bengals -3.5
This hurts. But Evans has not had a touchdown in nine games. Last week he was targeted nine times and had four receptions and 44 yards. That’s it. What do we have to believe when the Tom Brady-Mike Evans connection isn’t connecting?
And, of course, there is the fact that the Bengals are currently allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers.
Why?
Tight End
- Evan Engram, 39.20 fantasy points
- David Njoku 18.70 fantasy points
- Chigoziem Okonkwo, 18.50 fantasy points
- Dalton Shultz 14.70 fantasy points
- Dawson Knox 14.10 fantasy points
“You are the one thing in this world, above all other things, that you must never give up on…Asking for help is the first step. You are more precious to this world than you’ll ever know.” —Lili Reinhart
You really are.
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