NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 11 (Main Slate – 11 Games (11/19/2017)

Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value

Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.

15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

Week 10 Lineup Review

Week 10 was the most frustrating week of the season for me. I had some of my favorite lineups of the season and felt confident entering the week. None of my plays panned out, and I struggled to make any money this week. When weeks like this happen, I use some of the tools on Rotogrinders to see if I was off-base or if the “chalk” just failed. The best way to do this is to look at a single-entry cash game with a high entry fee. I usually check out the $250 single entry double up. Here are the 9 highest-owned players from that contest.

 

As you can see from the graphic, the highest-owned plays were all in my cash game lineup, allowing me to feel comfortable (although still disappointed) with the lineup I used in Week 10.

When building lineups, my locks were Le’Veon Bell, Bilal Powell, and Sterling Shepard. I wanted both Eli Manning and Carlos Hyde, but couldn’t find a comfortable $400 to make the swaps off of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jordan Howard. I toyed with coming off of Cameron Brate for Garrett Celek or coming off of Antonio Brown for A.J. Green, but that still left at least $1,200 of salary on the table, and I couldn’t find any comfortable upgrades from Adam Humphries in the $4K range.

I ended up winning just 5% of my head-to-head matchups and didn’t even come close in double ups. Hopefully you made better choices than me! Let’s hope week 11 is much better.

 

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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 11

QB – Blake Bortles at (CLE) – $5,200

This looks like a bad choice at first glance, but Bortles has averaged 17.38 DK points per game over his past four starts. He’ll face the Browns who rank 27th against the pass (all rankings refer to Football Outsiders DVOA). In addition to a poor pass defense, Cleveland has a top-notch run defense which ranks 2nd against the run, possibly limiting Leonard Fournette’s contribution on the ground and forcing the Jaguars to throw.

3x stat line: 250 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 16 rushing yards = 15.6 DK points

RB – Kareem Hunt at (NYG) – $8,000

The Chiefs are favored by double-digits against a defense that has basically given up. The Giants rank 27th against the run, and while Hunt has seen a drop in production recently, some of that has been game-script based. This game script sets up nicely for Hunt, as we shouldn’t see much of Charcandrick West late in the game if the Chiefs are ahead. Also missing from Hunt’s production has been touchdowns, but that seems like variance more than anything as the Chiefs simply haven’t scored often from inside the red zone recently, even though their overall scoring has continued. For these reasons, I’m expecting Hunt to bounce back in a big way and will have plenty of him in cash games and tournaments.

3x stat line: 18 carries, 102 rushing yards, 3 catches, 18 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.0 DK points

RB – Chris Thompson at (NO) – $5,400

With Rob Kelley out, Washington will likely give more touches to Thompson. In the two games Kelley missed this year, Thompson recorded roughly seven more carries and averaged 27.3 DK points per game. The Saints rank 24th against the run and 4th against the pass, so it’s possible Thompson approaches 15 carries. Thompson is always involved in the passing game, and the Saints bleed targets to opposing running backs, allowing 27.5% of passes to go to running backs according to Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar.

3x stat line: 13 carries, 44 rushing yards, 6 catches, 58 receiving yards = 16.2 DK points

RB – Rex Burkhead at (OAK) – $3,600

Burkhead saw a season-high in snaps on Sunday night, and since it was the late game, DraftKings did not adjust his price. He’s seen an increased workload in three straight games since coming back from injury and is involved in every aspect of the Patriots offensive attack. He’s a great way to save salary and Oakland ranks 24th against the run and 28th against running back receptions.

3x stat line: 9 carries, 36 rushing yards, 4 catches, 32 receiving yards = 10.8 DK points

WR – Sterling Shepard vs. (KC) – $6,300

Shepard continues to see high volume and averages 11 targets and 20.1 DK points per game since coming back from injury. His price is more than reasonable for his target share, and he’ll avoid Marcus Peters for the majority of this game. The Giants are projected to lose big, so the game script sets up nicely for Shepard to accumulate passing volume throughout the game. He was a lock in my lineups last week and is one of my favorite plays again this week.

3x stat line: 9 catches 99 receiving yards = 18.9 DK points

WR – Michael Crabtree vs. (NE) – $5,900

Crabtree will face the Patriots who rank 30th against the pass. I expect this to be a high scoring game, and if the Patriots are playing with a lead, Crabtree will have plenty of opportunity to rack up targets. While he hasn’t flashed a ton of upside outside of his three touchdown game earlier this year, Crabtree has shown a solid floor over his past five games. I’ll take the safety of Crabtree’s floor with added upside in a potential shootout for $5,900.

3x stat line: 5 catches 67 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown = 17.7 DK points

WR – Jamison Crowder at (NO) – $4,300

Crowder’s seen an absurd 24 targets over the past two games and is still just $4,300. The Saints are a very good pass defense, but their best corners play on the outside. Crowder has the best matchup of all the Washington receivers running out of the slot. Additionally, the Saints rank 2nd against tight ends, possibly pushing targets away from Vernon Davis and toward Crowder. Even with a minimal chance at a touchdown, I’m having a hard time passing on Crowder’s volume.

3x stat line: 6 catches, 69 receiving yards = 12.9 DK points

TE – Travis Kelce at (NYG) – $7,300

The Giants have given up at least one receiving touchdown and at least 15 DK points to opposing tight ends in every game this season. If you couldn’t guess, they give up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends as well. Travis Kelce is arguably the top tight end in the league for fantasy purposes and has at least 100 receiving yards in eight of his last 16 regular season games. He has immense upside, and it seems more likely than not that he’ll reach 100 yards and a score this week.

3x stat line: 8 catches, 109 receiving yards = 21.9 DK points

 

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