NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 14 (Main Slate – 13 Games (12/10/2017)

Week 13 Lineup Review

Week 13 was not a great week for my DraftKings lineup. I scored just 113 points, and five of my nine players were ice cold.

What worked: I said in my article that Jamaal Williams was a lock if both Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones were out. On Sunday, Jones was declared active, likely forcing many players to pivot. I did not pivot off of Williams as it seems like the Packers were comfortable with Williams getting the majority of the work. My projections dropped Williams to a 75% snap share, which dropped his projection slightly, but not enough to force me off of him in cash games. Williams finished with 23 total touches on 87% of the snaps. Kenyan Drake was another value running back who succeeded due to high volume. He recorded 26 touches and finished at more than 5x value. Finally, my defense was solid forcing three turnovers, three sacks and a defensive touchdown.

What didn’t work: My cash game quarterback decision came down to Trevor Siemian and Brett Hundley. I went with Siemian because I had Davante Adams as a receiver and could soak up some of Hundley’s production through Adams as well as Jamaal Williams. Siemian and the entire Broncos offense flopped, creating a huge hole at my quarterback position. Carlos Hyde saw just 67% this week giving up 13 touches to Matt Breida. This was a surprise as Hyde had played 75+% in three straight games and 90% of the snaps the week before. When Ameer Abdullah was ruled out, I considered pivoting from Hyde to Theo Riddick and paying up at QB or TE. I ended up making the switch in leagues, but did not change my cash game lineup. At wide receiver, I was high on both Davante Adams and Mike Evans with a potential shootout in Green Bay. Instead, both teams pounded the ball on the ground (54 total pass attempts vs. 63 total rushing attempts), killing the clock and avoiding their top receivers. Finally, Jared Cook was a major bust against the Giants. He recorded just one catch while Clive Walford, the backup tight end, finished with 4 catches and 57 receiving yards.

Overall, I cashed in just 33% of my cash games and none of my double-ups. Let’s hope week 14 turns out better than my week 13 lineup decisions.

Cash Game Article Overview

Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value
Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.
15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 14

QB – DeShone Kizer vs. (GB) – $4,900

While Kizer has struggled as an NFL quarterback, he’s been solid in fantasy recently. He’s averaged 17.3 DK points over his past four games. At $4,900, he only needs 14.7 DK points to reach value, a mark he’s exceeded in four of his past five contests. The matchup is solid as the Packers rank 21^st against the pass (all defensive rankings are from Football Outsiders DVOA), and Josh Gordon adds another weapon for Kizer in the offense. To top it all off, Kizer has shown a solid rushing floor, averaging 7.2 DK points per game on rushing alone over his past five games.

3x stat line: 200 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 27 rushing yards = 14.7 DK points

RB – Todd Gurley vs. (PHI) – $8,100

Gurley enters the week with the highest floors among all running backs on this slate. He’s averaged 18.2 DK points per game over the past four weeks but has only scored once and hasn’t reached the 100 yard bonus during that span. Gurley creates a high floor by his involvement in the passing game which also makes him immune to negative games scripts. With plenty of value on the slate, it’s easy to fit Gurley and his high floor into lineups.

3x stat line: 18 carries, 79 rushing yards, 5 catches, 54 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.3 DK Points

RB – Giovani Bernard vs. (CHI) – $3,100

Bernard will fill in for an injured Joe Mixon. Once Mixon went out last week, Bernard played all of the Bengals running back snaps. Not only will Bernard see the majority of the work, he’s a pass-catching back, perfect for PPR scoring on DraftKings. For just $3,100, Bernard is a lock in cash games.

3x stat line: 12 carries, 40 rushing yards, 3 catches, 23 receiving yards = 9.3 DK Points

WR – DeAndre Hopkins vs. (SF) – $8,500

Hopkins is another incredibly high floor option. He’s second in the NFL in targets, and has just one game with single-digit PPR points (9.9 points in week six). Now he’ll face the 49ers who play at the fastest pace in the NFL, rank 30^th against the pass, and 26^th against WR1s.

3x stat line: 6 catches 105 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 25.5 DK Points

WR – Larry Fitzgerald vs. (TEN) – $6,500

Fitzgerald continues to play well at age 34 and hasn’t shown signs of slowing down. He’s recorded more than 90 receiving yards and over 24 DK points in three of his past four games, the lone exception against a stout Jaguars defense. The Cardinals will face the Titans 25^th ranked pass defense in a home game where they project to trail, so Fitzgerald should see plenty of targets. With the target consistency, Fitzgerald also ranks in the top ten in the league in red zone targets, giving him a strong chance to score.

3x stat line: 6 catches, 75 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 19.5 DK Points

WR – Josh Gordon vs. (GB) – $5,500

While some played Gordon last week, I wanted to see how he looked and how the Browns used him in a tough matchup against Casey Hayward and the Chargers defense. Gordon saw 11 targets last week and recorded 210 air yards (airyards.com). He was heavily involved in a tough matchup last week and now faces the Packers defense who rank 21st against the pass. Gordon’s prices went up $1,400, but I expected it to rise much higher. Gordon isn’t a lock due to DeShone Kizer’s inaccuracy and the plethora of value WRs this week, but due to high ownership and plenty of positives, I  probably won’t fade Gordon in cash games.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 55 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 16.5 DK Points

TE – Travis Kelce vs. (OAK) – $7,400

Kelce will face the Raiders who rank 32^nd against the pass and 27^th against tight ends. Kelce is the top tight end on the slate and is the best bet to go over 100 yards from the tight end position. He’s scored 20+ DK points in half of his starts this season and has hauled in seven touchdowns this year.

3x stat line: 7 catches 92 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 22.2 DK Points

TE – Stephen Anderson vs. (SF) – $3,200

When C.J. Fiedorowicz was ruled out with a concussion, Stephen Anderson had a breakout performance. He saw 12 targets and finished with 18.9 DK points. He’ll have the chance to start this week as Fiedorowicz, Bruce Ellington, and Braxton Miller are all out or unlikely to play, leaving the Texans with a depleted group of receivers. Anderson already has eight red zone targets (19% of his looks) this season, the same number as Evan Engram and Delanie Walker.

3x stat line: 4 catches, 56 receiving yards = 9.6 DK Points

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