NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 15 (Main Slate – 11 Games (12/17/2017)

Week 14 Lineup Review

Week 14 turned out alright for my cash game lineup. I made a few mistakes, but my cash game core was good enough to profit.

What worked: Both Josh Gordon and Giovani Bernard were locks for plenty of players in week 14. While Gordon didn’t quite reach 3x value, he didn’t disappoint either. Bernard struggled early, but ended up with 19 DK points for just $3,100. My favorite play on the slate was DeAndre Hopkins, playing in a fast-paced game. Hopkins smashed value, scoring 39.9 DK points. Finally, Todd Gurley paid off his price scoring 28.5 DK points despite recording only 13 carries and 16 total touches.

What didn’t work: Late into the week, I had Deshone Kizer as my cash game quarterback, but the weather in the game looked a bit worrisome for a turnover-prone quarterback. I originally had Kizer and Blaine Gabbert projected similarly, but pivoted to Gabbert. The winds ended playing a minimal role in the Browns game, and Gabbert was sacked eight times, limiting the Cardinals offense. I’d like to pretend the process was solid in this one, but looking back at it, I probably panicked over weather. Along with Gabbert, Larry Fitzgerald’s output was underwhelming seeing his lowest target output since week 7. Stephen Anderson struggled in a big way, and playing him was a process error. I should have pivoted to Trey Burton for $300 less once Zach Ertz was ruled out. Finally Travis Kelce was simply an unlucky result. I had the opportunity to play LeSean McCoy in my flex, but went with Kelce. I still believe it was the right move. Kelce had a touchdown overturned by replay, had a touchdown nullified by penalty, and dropped another opportunity where he likely would have scored. I’ll stand behind Kelce and Fitzgerald, but will look to improve my process to avoid miscues like Gabbert and Anderson in the future.

Overall it was still a profitable week. I cashed in 61% of my head-to-heads and most of my double-ups.

 

Cash Game Article Overview

Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value

Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.

15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 15

QB – Cam Newton vs. (GB) – $6,400

With the return of Aaron Rodgers, this game has a chance to turn into a shootout. The Packers defense ranks 20^th against the pass (all defensive rankings are from Football Outsiders DVOA). Newton has rushed for 40+ yards in every game since week six except one. He’s averaging about 7.5 points per game on rushing alone during that stretch which equates to almost two passing touchdowns. Newton has a solid floor and a great ceiling at his current price.

3x stat line: 225 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 42 rushing yards = 19.2 DK Points

RB – Le’Veon Bell vs. (NE) – $9,300

Bell faces the Patriots in a potential shootout on Sunday afternoon. He’s averaging more than 10 targets and almost 25 total touches over his past four games. The Patriots have fallen to 32^nd against the run and 21^st against receivers out of the backfield. Bell has a floor near 20 points and has upside for more if he reaches the end zone. He’s close to a lock in cash games.

3x stat line: 18 carries, 109 rushing yards, 5 catches, 30 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 27.9 DK Points

RB – Kenyan Drake at (BUF) – $5,800

Since Damien Williams’ injury, Drake has averaged 28 touches and 167 total yards per game. He’s a high volume running back who is also involved in the passing attack. The Bills rank 24th against the run and have given up more than 30 PPR points per game to opposing RBs over the past eight weeks. As long as Williams remains out, Drake is a lock in my cash game lineup.

3x stat line: 19 carries, 94 rushing yards, 4 catches, 40 receiving yards = 17.4 DK Points

RB – Alex Collins at (CLE) – $5,000

Collins has averaged 19.75 touches per game over his past four contest and has scored five times during that stretch. Collins didn’t catch a pass until week eight, but has ten receptions over his past four games. He’s not a great PPR back, but he’s a workhorse and should have a positive games script against the Browns. The Browns rank first in run defense DVOA, but have given up more than 25 points per game since their bye week. For just $5,000 Collins is a solid volume play who will open up salary for some higher priced plays.

3x stat line: 17 carries, 70 rushing yards, 1 catch, 10 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 15.0 DK Points

WR – Antonio Brown vs. (NE) – $9,100

It is hard to decide whether to play Bell or Brown in cash games, so I’ll take both. We’ll have to completely punt one position, and semi-punt another, but when the game total for this matchup is a touchdown more than the next highest game, we’ll need players from this contest. Pairing Bell and Brown give us a legitimate chance at 15-20 receptions, 180-250 yards, and multiple touchdowns. If choosing between the two, I’d lean toward Bell, but I think playing both is certainly possible.

3x stat line: 8 catches, 103 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 27.3 DK Points

WR – Jamison Crowder vs. (ARI) – $5,600

I’m expecting Patrick Peterson to shadow Josh Doctson in this game which should open up a few more targets for Crowder. Crowder has the best individual matchup of the Washington receivers and has seen at least six targets in every game since week seven, with double-digit fantasy points in five of those seven matchups.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 58 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 16.8 DK Points

WR – Damiere Byrd vs. (GB) – $3,000

Byrd is minimum price and saw five targets last week. He played 59% of the offensive snaps, second among the Panthers wide receivers, only behind Devin Funchess. Byrd can only be projected for 4-6 targets, but with a 4.28 40 yard dash, he could reach value with just one play. Pairing him with Newton is an upside play, and most importantly, allows us to play Antonio Brown.

3x stat line: 4 catches, 50 receiving yards = 9.0 DK Points

TE – Charles Clay vs. (MIA) – $3,000

If Tyrod Taylor is the Bills quarterback this week, I like Clay as a semi-punt tight end. Clay had a great start to the year averaging just under 14 PPR points per game before getting injured in week five. The Dolphins rank 29^th against tight ends this year and have allowed nine touchdowns to the position. If Kelvin Benjamin misses this game, Clay becomes an even better play.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 40 receiving yards = 9.0 DK Points

 

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