NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 16 (Main Slate – 12 Games (12/24/2017)

Week 15 Lineup Review

What worked: Cam Newton was in a smash spot against the Packers and responded by throwing four touchdown passes. I talked about Newton’s rushing floor in last week’s article, and the floor was obvious as Newton carried the ball 14 times for 58 yards. Le’Veon Bell and Kenyan Drake were both workhorses again, totaling 57 opportunities. Jamison Crowder caught an early touchdown and finished with 16.5 DK points, paying off his $5,600 salary. The Washington defense was solid, and just missed a defensive touchdown in the first quarter. Finally, the most important play, allowing us to fit the top players into our lineup was Damiere Byrd. On Sunday morning, once Ted Ginn Jr. was ruled out, I toyed with the idea of playing Willie Snead or Brandon Coleman over Byrd. After looking into the data right before lock, I ended up remaining on Byrd for two reasons. First, Ginn only receives 4.5 targets per game. I expected a couple to go to Michael Thomas, maybe a one more to the running backs, which left only an extra target or two to be split between Coleman and Snead. I didn’t think this boost of one target was worth making the switch. The second reason is I liked the stack with Newton for upside in my head-to-head matchups. Byrd made the most of his four targets, scoring 17.5 DK points.

What didn’t work: Obviously Antonio Brown’s 4.4 points were not ideal, but I’m not going to be upset about that. This happens a few times a year where an injury can hurt a good lineup, but it doesn’t mean it was a bad play, just a bit unlucky. Alex Collins disappointed a bit, although he reached 2x value. He had four carries from inside the Cleveland ten yard line, but didn’t score. He also lost 13 carries to Buck Allen, possibly because the game was a bit out of hand.

Week 15 was a profitable week. I cashed in 86% of my head-to-heads and all of my double-ups.

Cash Game Article Overview

Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value

Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.

15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 16

QB – Drew Stanton vs. (NYG) – $4,500

Stanton will take over as the Cardinals starting quarterback this week. The Cardinals are favored at home with unreliable running back options. When Stanton was the starter earlier in the year, he topped 15 DK points in each start. The Giants defense ranks 25^th against the pass this season (all defensive rankings are from Football Outsiders DVOA), giving Stanton a quality matchup. Since week 4, the Giants defense has given up at least 15 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in every week except one. This week, if Stanton reaches 15 points, he’ll exceed value. Playing Stanton allows us to pay up at other positions, so I’m ok with him in cash games.

3x stat line: 225 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 5 rushing yards = 13.5 DK Points

RB – Ezekiel Elliott vs. (SEA) – $8,000

Elliott returns from suspension and will face a Seahawks defense that gave up 48 DK points to Todd Gurley last week. While many NFL players are banged up at this point in the year, Elliott should be fresh and the Cowboys need to win out to have a chance at the playoffs. I’m expecting them to give Elliott 25+ touches in this game. The Cowboys are favored by five, giving Elliott a good shot at a positive game script. Additionally, his price is $1,000 cheaper than it was the last time he played in week 9.

3x stat line: 22 carries, 110 rushing yards, 2 catches, 20 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.0 DK Points

RB – Melvin Gordon at (NYJ) – $7,200

Gordon averages more than 10 PPR points per game on the road than he does at home this season. He averages three more receptions and almost 50 more receiving yards per game on the road. This could be noise, but there are other factors working for Gordon as well. Austin Ekeler looks unlikely to play a big role after injuring his hand last week, giving Gordon an opportunity for more touches. Additionally, Hunter Henry will miss the rest of the season, potentially giving Gordon an extra chance or two in the red zone.

3x stat line: 17 carries, 86 rushing yards, 4 catches, 30 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 21.6 DK Points

RB – Devonta Freeman at (NO) – $6,500

Freeman is a lock if Tevin Coleman misses this game, but it’s looking more likely that Coleman will play. Even if Coleman plays, Freeman should be in line for 15-20 touches against the Saints who rank 26^th against the run. Freeman is involved in the passing game and near the goal line, so even if the game script isn’t perfect, he can score in many different ways.

3x stat line: 15 carries, 60 rushing yards, 4 catches, 35 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 19.5 DK Points

WR – Keenan Allen at (NYJ) – $7,700

Allen also benefits from Hunter Henry’s absence near the red zone, giving him a slightly elevated chance to score. Averaging more than 11 targets and more than 28 DK points per game over his past five, Allen has a high floor and has shown a high ceiling as well. The Chargers rank 22^nd against the pass and are dead last against WR1s.

3x stat line: 8 catches 121 receiving yards = 23.1 DK Points

WR – Michael Thomas vs. (ATL) – $7,600

Thomas also has a high floor scoring double-digit fantasy points in every game since week 7. The Saints have the second-highest team total on the slate, and put up 30.7 DK points against the Falcons just two weeks ago. Just last week, Thomas narrowly missed out on two touchdowns and still scored 24.3 DK points. There are few receivers in the NFL that make better cash game options than Thomas on a weekly basis.

3x stat line: 7 catches, 98 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 22.8 DK Points

WR – Chris Godwin at (CAR) – $3,000

O.J. Howard was placed on injured reserve this week, and DeSean Jackson is questionable with an ankle injury. This play is contingent on Jackson being out, but if he does miss this game, Godwin will see an elevated target share. When Mike Evans missed a game in week 10, Godwin played 97% of the snaps and saw 10 targets.

3x stat line: 4 catches, 50 receiving yards = 9.0 DK Points

TE – Antonio Gates at (NYJ) – $2,500

With Henry out, Gates is in play for the minimum price on DraftKings. I’m not thrilled about having three players from the same team in cash games, but playing Gates allows us to pay up for many high volume options. At just $2,500, a single catch for a touchdown will pay off value. The Jets look like a solid defense against tight ends, but have yielded eight touchdowns to the position.

3x stat line: 1 catch, 5 yards, 1 total touchdown = 7.5 DK Points

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