NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 17 (Main Slate – 16 Games (12/31/2017)

Week 16 Lineup Review

What worked:

All three of the punts in my lineup reached value. Drew Stanton was unspectacular, but got the job done, reaching 3x his salary. Chris Godwin saw six targets, catching just three of them, but recording 98 receiving yards. He reached 4x his salary while narrowly missing the 100 yard bonus. Antonio Gates was the star of this lineup. He finished with eight targets and 20.1 DK points, more than 8x his salary. These punts allowed me to pay up for some high-priced plays.

Melvin Gordon was a near lock for me with Austin Ekeler unlikely to play any offensive snaps. Brandon Oliver received a few more carries than I expected, but Gordon still recorded 22 opportunities. Once Michael Thomas was added to the injury report, I thought he was too risky to play in cash games. I pivoted down to Mike Evans, who I thought was underpriced considering DeSean Jackson was ruled out. Evans was solid, recording his first 100 yard game of the season. I was then left with $1,200, allowing me to pay up at another position. I chose to swap Devonta Freeman with Rob Gronkowski. I thought Gronkowski was a great play once Rex Burkhead, James White, and Chris Hogan were all ruled out. These injuries opened up plenty of targets in the Patriots offense, and I believed it opened up additional red-zone opportunities as well. This was obvious as three of Gronkowski’s seven targets were end-zone targets.

What didn’t work:

The major decision on Sunday morning was deciding what to do with Dion Lewis. Once White was ruled out, I thought Lewis was one of the best plays on the slate, and I looked to find ways to fit him into my lineup. There were still concerns with Lewis, but the price was more than reasonable. My concerns were the Patriots had refused to give Lewis more than 15 carries in a game this season. I didn’t know if that was because they had Rex Burkhead for most of those games, or if they wanted to keep Lewis healthy for the playoffs by limiting his carries. Additionally, I thought the game would get out of hand (it did), and expected much more of Mike Gillislee and Brandon Bolden. Even with these concerns, Lewis projected to be a top running back value. I considered playing Lewis in place of Elliott and Gronkowski, but I couldn’t find a comfortable way use the additional salary I’d have from making the switch. I ended up fading Lewis in cash, but going heavy on him in both leagues and tournaments.

I expected Ezekiel Elliott to score more points, but the Cowboys shortened three drives with turnovers and failed to give Elliott a touch while near the goal line. With 31 opportunities, Elliott was still a good process play, but the result wasn’t great. Keenan Allen also disappointed, but still saw high volume. He saw ten targets, but finished with 11.3 PPR points, not ideal for $7,700, but a solid process play as well.

Week 15 was a profitable week. I cashed in 72% of my head-to-heads and all of my double-ups.

Cash Game Article Overview

Each week, I’ll post my cash game picks for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, some picks may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value

Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.

15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 11

QB – Tom Brady vs. (NYJ) – $6,800

Brady faces off against the Jets in a game the Patriots need to win to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs. There is certainly a possibility this game gets out of hand, but if that’s the case, Brady has probably done his damage already. This is the cheapest Brady has been this entire season, so the downside is limited.

3x stat line: 295 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 8 rushing yards = 20.6 DK Points

RB – Derrick Henry vs. (JAX) – $5,500

With DeMarco Murray likely out or limited, the Titans will turn the backfield over to Henry. The Jaguars insist they will play this game with their starters, but Vegas is less certain. The Titans are favored at home, and Henry should get 20+ touches. According to Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, the Titans have scored 18 rushing touchdowns and only 13 passing touchdowns, so if the Titans get to the red zone, Henry should have a solid shot to score as well.

3x stat line: 18 carries 86 rushing yards, 1 catch, 9 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 16.5 DK Points

RB – Jamaal Williams at (DET) – $5,200

The Packers will be without Aaron Jones in the backfield, so it will be Williams and Devante Mays (who has -2.1 total fantasy points this season) to absorb all the Packers backfield touches. Williams is another running back who should be expected to record 20 touches. While the Packers are underdogs, but the Lions are a great matchup for running backs. They rank 28^th against the run and have given up 16 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.

3x stat line: 17 carries, 87 rushing yards, 3 catches, 39 receiving yards = 15.6 DK Points

RB – Carlos Hyde at (LAR) – $4,900

With the Rams resting many of their players, including Aaron Donald, their 18^th ranked run defense will likely be weaker this Sunday. The targets have dwindled for Hyde with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but that’s baked into the $4,900 price tag and Hyde should have a better chance to score. The 49ers are 3.5 point favorites, so game script should set up nicely for Hyde to pay off his modest salary.

3x stat line: 15 carries, 67 rushing yards, 1 catch, 10 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 14.7 DK Points

WR – Julio Jones vs. (CAR) – $8,200

Jones will play against the Panthers in the only game where both teams are fighting for a playoff berth. The Panthers have given up an average of 44.6 PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers over their past seven games. Jones has at least eight targets in every game since week 9 except for a matchup against Xavier Rhodes. With a high ceiling and a fairly high floor, Jones is one of my favorite plays on the slate.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 106 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.6 DK Points

WR – Michael Thomas at (TB) – $7,700

Thomas will face the Buccaneers who rank 30^th against the pass. Thomas has seen eight or more targets in every game except two this season, one against Darius Slay, and last week due to injury. Thomas has one of the highest floors among wide receivers when healthy, and the Saints need to win this game to ensure a home playoff game. The Saints should have increased motivation to win, and Thomas will likely see a high target share if he is recovered from his hamstring injury, creating another solid floor/ceiling combination.

3x stat line: 8 catches, 91 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 23.1 DK Points

WR – T.Y. Hilton vs. (HOU) – $5,900

Hilton will face the Texans who rank 24^th against the pass. Hilton is a boom/bust player, but he’s been incredible against the Texans in his career averaging more than 20 PPR points per game. After a series of touch matchups, Hilton will return home to play the same team he flamed for 37.5 DK points earlier this season.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 67 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 17.7 DK Points

TE – Charles Clay at (MIA) – $3,700

Clay has recorded 19 targets over the past two games and still costs just $3,700. He had three red zone targets last week and offers salary relief while still maintaining volume at the tight end position. It helps that the Dolphins rank 28^th against tight ends and have given up 87 receptions to tight ends this season, second most in the league.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 61 receiving yards = 11.1 DK Points

 

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