NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 3 (Main Slate – 13 Games (9/24/17)

Each week, I’ll create a cash game lineup for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, the cash game lineups may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value

Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.

15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

Week 2 Lineup Review

My cash game lineup turned out well in week 2, as I cashed in over 90% of my head to head matchups and all of my double ups. Three injury situations directed my pivots in cash games. First, Sam Bradford’s injury took me off of Stefon Diggs in cash games and made me look at another WR option. I knew that David Johnson was already out for the Cardinals so once John Brown was ruled also out, I locked in J.J. Nelson for $3,800. I then debated whether to pay for Larry Fitzgerald or Keenan Allen to fill the Diggs spot. Once I saw the Bears had injuries on their offensive line, I was comfortable dropping down to the Buccaneers defense, saving enough salary to fit Fitzgerald easily. I thought Fitzgerald had more touchdown upside and a relatively similar target projection to Allen so I went with Fitz. That call ended up being incorrect, but I liked my process. Overall, it was a great week for my cash team. See my Week 2 lineup below.

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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 3

QB – Kirk Cousins vs. (OAK) – $6,100

Cousins faces the Raiders on Sunday Night Football. Washington has a team total of 26 points and the spread on the game is just three. This game seems like the most likely shoot out this week, Cousins is $700 less than Derek Carr and will play at home. While Cousins has struggled to start the year, I’m not overly concerned about the slow start and am happy to get a quality quarterback in a good matchup for this price.

3x stat line: 250 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 3 rushing yards = 18.3 DK Points

 

RB – Jay Ajayi at (NYJ) – $7,700

Ajayi has a dream matchup against the Jets who rank 27th in rush defense DVOA (all DVOA stats are from Football Outsiders). The Dolphins are favored by six in this matchup, likely leading to a positive game script for Ajayi. Last week, Ajayi recorded 30 touches, and in a matchup as favorable as this one, he has significant upside if he sees that volume again.

3x stat line: 23 carries, 111 rushing yards, 2 catches, 10 receiving yards, 1 rushing touchdown = 23.1 DK Points

RB – Ty Montgomery vs. (CIN) – $6,900

There has been talk of the Packers limiting Montgomery’s touches this week, but even if he’s “limited” he could see 75+% of the team’s snaps. He’s in the category of Le’Veon Bell and a healthy David Johnson where he’s a quality running back and a receiver at the same time. He’s seen 10 receptions for 114 yards and a receiving touchdown in the first two weeks while getting carries at the goal line and averaging 19.5 touches per game. His production is independent of the game script as he’ll carry the ball during a Packers’ lead and catch the ball during a comeback attempt. For less than $7K, I’m locking him into my lineups.

3x stat line: 14 carries, 54 rushing yards, 5 catches, 43 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 20.7 DK Points

WR – A.J. Green at (GB) – $8,100

The Bengals are 8.5 point underdogs and have a team total of just 19 points, but if they are going to keep this game close, Green will have a lot to do with it. Some say he’s had a slow start to the season (for his standards), but he’s still seen nine targets per game and is averaging over 12 PPR points through two weeks. Julio Jones had 4 catches for 95 yards by halftime of last week’s matchup against the Packers. The Falcons were up huge in the second half, so Jones wasn’t involved, but he had upside for a monster performance if the game stayed close. Green is on the same level of Jones and the Bengals should play from behind in this game, leading to more pass attempts. Green is $900 less than Antonio Brown, and has a much better matchup. A.J. Green is my favorite play of the week.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 103 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.3 DK Points

WR – Rashard Higgins at (IND) – $4,000

Higgins will take over for Corey Coleman after Coleman broke his hand in last week’s game. Kenny Britt doesn’t look like a major threat in the offense and Higgins received 11 targets last week. I expect Higgins to be DeShone Kizer’s top target this week against a Colts defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA through two weeks. I like the safety and the upside in this matchup for $4,000, making Higgins an easy way to save salary.

3x stat line: 6 catches, 60 receiving yards = 12.0 DK Points

WR – Davante Adams vs. (CIN) – $5,600

Randall Cobb is doubtful to play on Sunday, leaving a slightly banged up Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams to shoulder the load. Some targets could be directed toward Geronimo Allison and Martellus Bennett, but for $5,600 I think, Adams benefits enough to consider him in cash games. In the three games Cobb missed last season, Adams averaged 18.3 DK points per game.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 58 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 16.8 DK Points

TE – Zach Ertz vs. (NYG) – $5,000

Ertz leads all tight ends in receiving yards this season, is second in targets and second in receptions. He’s third in DK points and has flirted with 100 yard games in each of the first two weeks. He’ll face the Giants who have strong corners and seem content yielding receptions to tight ends. In week 1, Jason Witten went for 7 catches, 59 receiving yards and a touchdown, and Eric Ebron went for 7-51-1 the following week. I’m expecting Alshon Jeffery to have his hands full with Janoris Jenkins, leading Carson Wentz to feed Ertz as many targets as he can handle. I’d still be buying Ertz in this matchup at $1,000 more.

3x stat line: 7 catches, 80 receiving yards = 15.0 DK Points

TE – Jack Doyle vs. (CLE) – $3,600

Doyle faces the Browns and costs just $3,600. He was Jacoby Brissett’s favorite target last week catching 8 passes for 79 yards. The Browns have struggled to cover the tight end for as long as I’ve been playing DFS, and it hasn’t changed this season. They gave up 22.1 DK points to Jesse James in week 1, and 17.1 DK points to Benjamin Watson in week 2. If you’re not going with Ertz, Doyle is your guy. You could even plug one in at the flex spot to save salary.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 58 receiving yards = 10.8 DK Points

D/ST – Philadelphia Eagles vs. (NYG) – $3,000

The Eagles will face Eli Manning and the Giants in a home game. Philadelphia is favored by six, likely leading to a positive game script for the defense. The Giants don’t have much in the running game, leading Manning to stand behind a horrible offensive line for most of the game. The Giants haven’t reached 20 points in a single game over their past eight (including playoffs), so the Eagles have a solid floor in this matchup as well. The Giants offensive line ranks as the 7th worst in adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders), and the Eagles defensive line ranks as the 4th best, so there is plenty of upside for sacks and turnovers.

3x stat line: 14-20 points against, 4 sacks, 2 turnovers = 9.0 DK Points

Also Considering:

Amari Cooper at (WAS) – $7,100
Le’Veon Bell at (CHI) – $8,800
Geronimo Allison vs. (CIN) – $3,000 (if Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson is OUT)
Devin Funchess vs. (NO) – $4,200

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