NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 4 (Main Slate – 12 Games (10/1/17)

Each week, I’ll create a cash game lineup for DraftKings. Since this is usually posted earlier in the week, the cash game lineups may change slightly by Sunday. Follow me on Twitter @fantasybeast15 for updates!

In cash games, you should always look for each player to reach at least 3x value.

DraftKings Points/(Player Salary/1000) = Value

Example: If Carson Wentz has a $5,000 salary and scored 15 DraftKings (DK) points, Wentz would reach 3x value based on the formula below.

15 DK Points/($5,000/1,000) = 3x Value

I will also present a 3x stat line. The 3x stat line is not a projection, but a hypothetical stat line that would allow the player to reach three times his value. When creating your own cash game lineup, choose players who you believe can reach the 3x stat line. If you look at a player and don’t think he can reach the 3x stat line, consider choosing a different option in your own lineup.

Week 3 Lineup Review

Week 3 was a frustrating week overall. I basically broke even last week, finishing with a $0.20 profit. I cashed in 57.8% of my head to head matchups (including ties). I went into the week thinking Davante Adams was bad chalk due to Cincinnati’s quality coverage of perimeter receivers, but he fit perfectly with all the rest of the lineup, so I went with it even though I had reservations. Jay Ajayi disappointed as the Dolphins were almost blanked by the Jets. I expected the Dolphins to play much better in the matchup, so I was comfortable with Ajayi. In hindsight, Ajayi is probably shouldn’t have been as highly owned as he was considering it was a road game, and he doesn’t catch many passes. Finally, Rashard Higgins and Jack Doyle were incredibly disappointing after being peppered with targets the week before. If you played the same lineup as me, you were likely saved by A.J. Green and Kirk Cousins and hopefully you were able to make a small profit.

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NFL DFS DraftKings Cash Game Lineup – Week 4

QB – Trevor Siemian vs. (OAK) – $5,200

Siemian will face the Raiders who rank 28th in DVOA (Football Outsiders) against the pass. Siemian comes at a price where he doesn’t even need to throw for 200 yards to reach value assuming he throws a couple touchdowns. There are a few other value quarterbacks who should be popular at a similar price, but I prefer Siemian. The Broncos have a team total of 24.5 points, much higher than the Deshaun Watson and the Texans (20.75) or the Tyrod Taylor and the Bills (20.25).

3x stat line: 190 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns = 15.6 DK Points

RB – Ezekiel Elliott at (CLE) – $8,200

Elliott will face the Rams who have given up 133 rushing yards per game and five rushing touchdowns to opposing running back through three weeks. While the spread has shrunk, the Cowboys are still six point favorite at home. The game script sets up nicely for Elliott who rarely comes off the field. It’s also encouraging to see Elliott involved in the pass game, averaging four receptions per game to start the year. With the volume and the matchup, Elliott is the top running back play of the week.

3x stat line: 22 carries, 100 rushing yards, 3 catches, 26 yards, 1 total touchdown = 24.6 DK Points

RB – Dalvin Cook vs. (DET) – $6,500

Cook has a solid matchup against the Lions who rank 16th in rush defense DVOA. Cook is another workhorse and is simply underpriced. He plays on all three downs and will also see the goal line work. His passing game involvement is key on DraftKings, seeing 13 targets through three games. He also has multiple 20+ carry games already this season.

3x stat line: 15 carries, 75 rushing yards, 3 catches, 30 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 19.5 DK Points

WR – DeAndre Hopkins vs. (TEN) – $6,400

Hopkins is another player who’s seen crazy volume this year. He’s the only player to have at least seven catches in each game this year. His 37 targets pace all players and the matchup is pristine. The Titans have given up 41.9 DK points per game to opposing wide receivers this year and while the production won’t exclusively go to Hopkins, he has seen more than 46% of his team’s targets.

3x stat line: 7 catches, 62 receiving yards, 1 total touchdown = 19.2 DK Points

WR – Tyrell Williams vs. (PHI) – $4,400

Williams has another great matchup against the Eagles outside corners. According to ESPN’s Mike Clay, the Eagles have given up the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers through the first three weeks. Williams has a great price, and even though he hasn’t scored this year, he’s seen an average of six targets per game. With Melvin Gordon banged up, I expect the Chargers to lean on the pass a bit more. Between the potential volume increase and the great matchup, Williams is a great way to save salary.

3x stat line: 6 catches, 72 receiving yards = 13.2 DK Points

WR – Rishard Matthews at (HOU) – $4,900

Matthews scored 20.7 DK points last week against a tough Seahawks defense and averages eight targets per game this year. With Corey Davis out this week, it’s likely Matthews can see eight targets again. The Texans rank 19th against the pass and 24th against WR1s this season, showing winnable matchups for Matthews.

3x stat line: 6 catches, 87 receiving yards = 14.7 DK Points

TE – Charles Clay at (ATL) – $3,700

It’s clear at this point in the year that the Bills have zero quality outside threats in their offense. ALL of the Bills wide receivers have combined for 53.4 DK points while Charles Clay has 36.5 DK points so far this year. The Bills know their situation and have funneled targets to Clay and LeSean McCoy. Over his past seven games Clay averages 14.9 DK points per game with five touchdowns. His floor is safe, and if he scores, he’ll exceed value.

3x stat line: 5 catches, 61 receiving yards = 11.1 DK Points

FLEX – Keenan Allen vs. (PHI) – $7,200

The same logic that applies to Williams applies to Allen except that Allen plays the slot. Philip Rivers peppers Allen with targets, sending 28 passes his way this year which ranks fifth among wide receivers. While Allen doesn’t have a huge role near the end zone, his target volume is too good to pass up for $7,200 in a plus matchup.

3x stat line: 8 catches, 106 receiving yards = 21.6 DK Points

D/ST – Cincinnati Bengals at (CLE) – $3,500

The Bengals face rookie Deshone Kizer and the Browns. The Browns have a team total of fewer than 20 points, and the Bengals are road favorites. With 11 sacks this year, it’s clear the Bengals can get to the quarterback, forcing bad decisions. Kizer has already thrown seven picks and has fumbled once, so I’m excited for both the floor and the ceiling of the Bengals D/ST.

3x stat line: 14-20 points against, 4 sacks, 3 turnovers = 11.0 DK Points (3.14x)

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