NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 1

NFL Week 1 is almost here which means it is time to dive into a handful of my favorite games to script for the week. This week I picked the two games Vegas projects to go over 50 points plus two other potential high scoring games I find intriguing. As a bonus, since its Week 1, I also added a “Mini-Script” blurb about the TNF through MNF slate on DraftKings. I believe there is a valuable edge to be had in this slate and I highly encourage everyone to play it in addition to the main slate.

I also want to emphasize most players, myself included, rely too heavily on last year’s statistics and biases when projecting the early part of the new season. Every year there are a few teams that regress and ones that go from worst to first. While data and stats from last year will still guide us, if there is a time to be contrarian, it’s in the first month of the regular season while we are trying to establish the identity of who these teams really are.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

KC Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars. Over/Under 52.5

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Probable Outcome:

• I’ve seen the over/under fluctuate on sportsbooks between 51 and 52.5. No matter the number, Vegas thinks this will be an explosive game and has the potential to be closer than a lot of people think. We didn’t need Vegas numbers to know the KC Chiefs offense is going to electric again this year. What might be overlooked by the masses, however, is the line implies the Jaguars will also put up points in this contest.

 

• KC Side: Both the air and ground game are in play for the Chiefs. I fully anticipate them doing their part to get this game to 50+ points. However, the addition of Shady McCoy muddies the running back waters quite a bit. Stay on top of the news to see if he will be active week 1 or if D. Williams will be the bellcow. That news will help me know if I want a part of this ground game. For now, it’s a stay away. It has also been noted that Tyreek Hill will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey so I will have less shares of him than the rest of the team. The issue will be what the magic combination of Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and S. Watkins will be.

 

• JAX Side: If the Jags put up points, it will most likely come from a more concentrated core than the KC Side. I don’t favor the air or ground game. If the Jags are going to keep this close, it will most likely be Fournette carrying the load. The only WR I will consider is Westbrook. Pairing either (or both) of these guys with Foles should be left for larger field GPP’s but it will definitely be contrarian.

Contrarian View:

• First instance of possibly relying too much on last year but my initial lean is Kansas City comfortably winning this game on the road. I see this game being more of a 27-17 type score.

 

• KC Side: Nothing really changes for me on the above. The Chiefs are the type of team that will continue to be aggressive well into the 4^th quarter of a blowout, so there isn’t much of a lean in favor of the running game. It will still be about finding the right mix of KC players. I do think the KC Defense will be an interesting play in the scenario I described above.

 

• JAX Side: In the contrarian scenario, I am going to take a HARD pass on the Jacksonville skill players. I don’t have faith that Foles is going to be able to turn this struggling offense around. He has been underestimated before, but I am going to make him show me something for his new team before I become a believer.

L.A. Rams (-3) at Carolina Panthers. Over/Under 50.5

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Probable Outcome:

• This game is projected as the 2^nd highest scoring game of the Sunday Main Slate. There is some injury concern with Cam Newton’s foot but the coaches seem very confident he will be out there. It might limit his rushing upside but I won’t be too worried about this for the time being. This projects to be a high scoring, back and forth affair. I will want shares of both sides.

 

• L.A. Side: The projected weak link of the Panthers defense will be the secondary. Add to the fact all the mystery surrounding Todd Gurley, and I am going to concentrate on the passing side of the Rams offense. Goff is firmly on my radar in week 1. The question is which WR to pair him with? If I was to prioritize a stack it would be 1) Cooks, 2) Woods, and 3) Kupp. I am also not opposed to dipping into playing two of those WR’s with Goff. The TE’s are not utilized enough for me to want to add them to the list of players.

 

• CAR Side: If the Panthers are going to do their part in this high scoring, close contest. It could be either via the ground or the air. Like the Chiefs above, we know we want to play these guys, the issue will be the right combination. Newton, CMC, Moore, and Samuel are all on my radar for this game. CMC being the safest one as his role in the offense remains intact regardless of the outcome. He is one of the safest cash game plays (as well as GPPs).

Contrarian View:

• Will there be a Superbowl hangover for the Rams? Possibly, and that could be a good angle to attack BUT I think the next likeliest scenario at play in this game is the Panthers not pulling their weight in this contest. The offseason hype surrounding this offense (and I am part of that train) is getting a little out of hand. This team definitely has the capability to lay a few eggs this year.

 

• LA Side: Another offense that keeps the hammer down regardless of score. We don’t need to worry about a score that limits the upside of the people listed above. A contrarian play would be to add Gurley to the mix of players listed above. I anticipate the majority of people taking a wait and see approach on him. It’s always better to be a week early than a week late. If the score plays out to something like 28-14, then the Rams Defense is also in play. Cam might not be as mobile and he is prone to making some big mistakes when the offense isn’t firing on all cylinders.

 

• CAR Side: Only CMC is safe in a potential blowout as he will catch a ton of dump off passes. Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore have to face a pair of pretty aggressive corners and can see one of both getting pretty much eliminated from the scorebox. A GPP winning strategy would be to avoid these two as I anticipate both garnering plenty of ownership.

 

S.F. 49ers at T.B. Buccaneers (PK). Over/Under 49.5

Probable Outcome:

• Vegas projects this to be a high scoring coin flip. I fully expect the line to move to 50+ before kickoff. Unless you project this game to end up lopsided, both sides are in play. Once again, finding the right mix will most likely be key in a game with plenty of fantasy scoring.

 

• SF Side: While each side projects to score roughly 25 points, the 49ers side of the ball comes with far more uncertainty. They have 2 RB’s, a logjam at WR, and a QB that was shaky in the preseason. I expect this side of the game to be lower owned which will give us some leverage. While I will definitely have more exposure to the Bucs side, I like the idea in GPP’s to tinker with Garoppolo, Coleman, Breida, Pettis, and Kittle. I only think Kittle will garner a lot of attention from the DFS community so this is a good spot to go bold and differentiate yourself. I do not question that the 9ers will score, only that it’s difficult to project how it will come.

 

• TB Side: Just as confident this team will put up points, however, it’s much easier to project scoring as it should come through the air. Ignore the ground game and stack up the passing. Winston is really priced up but with all the value I don’t expect it to lower ownership. Evans, Godwin, and Howard are all viable options to pair with their QB. Once again, our only issue is finding enough room for all these great plays.

Contrarian View:

• Fading either of these teams is a risky proposition. However, if I am going to go bold in a GPP, I will lean at favoring the 9ers will fading the Bucs. The reason? The hype in fantasy circles the last month has been the potency of this Tampa Bay team. I think they will come in highly owned, so why not pivot to the opposite side? San Francisco was cursed by injuries last year and I believe in coach Shanahan. For my pivot, I will play some lineups assuming TB stumbles out of the gate and San Fran wins a game something like 24-17.

 

• SF Side: In this scenario, you can play it a few ways. First would be to be off the 9ers completely and focus on some of the other high scoring games. But his write-up wouldn’t be fun if I stopped there. The other way is to project the 9ers get up and lean on their running game to hold on for a road W. I like Breida and Coleman (never in same lineup) as one off plays, no stacking with others from either side.

 

• TB Side: The Bucs skill players are priced up, if they don’t put up 3+ TD’s in this game, it will be a disappointment. Sure, all the scoring could funnel to one player but projecting that is a difficult endeavor. I will have a few lineups where I take a hands off approach to this team. I believe in the hype but it has gotten a tad out of control.

 Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals. Over/Under 47.5

Probable Outcome:

• This article would feel incomplete if I didn’t touch on Team Kliff & Kyler and the amount of hype surrounding the air raid offense. Vegas projects this game to be close with Detroit winning on the road by about a field goal. Both teams are expected to score at least 3 touchdowns. Similar to the last game we discussed, there is not a shortage of potential plays. The key will be finding the right combination. Additionally, I fully expect the Lions to go overlooked which gives us a nice pivot edge.

 

• DET Side: The only hesitation with being all in on both the air and ground is the potential for multiple RB’s to get carries. I’m not buying the rumors that Kerryon Johnson will be in some sort of timeshare with CJ Anderson. I will happily play him at his price if people are hesitant. In addition, the Cards are without their top 2 corners so this game can be exploited via the air. I am interested in the under the radar plays of Stafford, Golladay, and M. Jones as well. I will wait and see on their rookie TE before firing him up.

 

• ARI Side: Different team. Same story. Apologies if I sound like a broken record but fire up the air and ground game. We also get pleasure of avoiding the TE position so focus on the 3 of Kyler, Johnson, Kirk. No beef with Fitzgerald but I just can’t pull the trigger on such a great slate.

 Contrarian View:

• Once again, the hype is out of control on the Arizona Cardinals. I think they will be fantasy friendly for most of the year but if I am going to go bold in GPP’s, they are the side I am fading. Nobody is talking about the Lions going up against a decimated secondary that was already a lousy defense. Rookie Coach and Rookie QB for Arizona, there is a reasonable chance they come out flat in their first game like we saw them do in the preseason. A few of my lineups will take the position that Detroit comes out and wins very easily. Let’s project the score to be 24-13.

 

• DET Side: If we are taking this position, our stance on the Detroit skill position players doesn’t change from the above analysis. I do think the air game is going to be overlooked by the majority of players so I like the idea of focusing my attention on them for some GPP winning upside. Don’t sleep on the Lions D regardless of scoring projection. While I normally lean home defenses that are heavily favored, the Lions are facing a rookie QB playing behind a horrible O line. He is going to make mistakes and will probably run himself to a sack or two each game. It will be a strategy I employ early on in the season until Kliff and Kyler prove this air raid can work in the NFL.

 

• ARI Side: In this scenario, I am going to be hands off on the team. If you want to play anyone for “safety” David Johnson is your best bet as he will catch plenty of balls regardless of game script. I think Kyler and Co will garner plenty of ownership on a slate with plenty of plays. It’s not necessary to jam them into lineups.

 

*BONUS “Mini-Script” for the TNF,SNF, and MNF contests*

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3). Over/Under 46.5

• Seasoned GPP players know there is an edge to fading the Thursday Night Football players when the game is not ideal for scoring. That is because people love having action on the game and seeing their players perform on National TV. This leads to inflated ownership in the Thursday Night Football game. This week is no different and with it being the opening game, I will be avoiding the players and banking on a low scoring affair. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6). Over/Under 51

• Steelers at Patriots: With a six-point spread, Vegas projects the Patriots to win comfortably. I will agree with this projection as the Steelers have to replace AB and Bel (officially). Since the Patriots have gone run heavy the last year, I will focus my game plan on Sony Michel.from the NE Side. They spread the ball to much through the air to guess that anyway. For the Steelers, I like them to put up their points as well. I will lean on the passing side with Big Ben, Juju, and Vance McDonald. 

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7). Over/Under 53

• Texans at Saints: Another prime time game Vegas expects the home team to win comfortably. The last few years, the Saints have come out slow to open the season. I will play this trend and predict this score to be closer than expected. Doesn’t matter who wins though as it will be a high scoring back and forth game. Check DraftKings to see if Duke Johnson is eligible to score for Houston (current playing as a Brown on the main slate). Assuming he is now which makes the air game the easier play. Watson, Hopkins, and Fuller are all in play. For the Saints, I will stick with Kamara and Thomas to run it back.

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