NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 15

Lots of injuries to monitor in Week 15. So much so that there might be too much value to choose from. I will address in spots if need be but it is very important to monitor reports Saturday and Sunday as my thoughts on a game might flip solely based on someone being in or out.

For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

All lines are current as of Thursday Afternoon:

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3). Over/Under 50.

Probable Outcome:

• This game has been bet up from 48 to 50 points over a few days so this looks like a prime stacking spot. Titans have been rejuvenated under the QB change and look to ride the momentum. Love this game and both teams have a concentrated target core which makes the main builds straightforward with a few ancillary pieces that might pay off dividends.

• HOU Side: Doesn’t matter the score, we know we need to target the passing game of the Texans. The Titans don’t offer an imposing defense. My favorite connection will be the obvious play of Deshaun Watson to Deandre Hopkins. Especially if Fuller remains out as Hopkins sees an ungodly amount of targets when he misses.

• TEN Side: The Titans side isn’t as straightforward only because both the run and pass games are setup well. I expect this to be a close game and the Titans could have their way on the ground or air. I will lean with them seizing control at home which leads us to December’s finest, Derrick Henry. He should absolutely

Alternative Outcome:

• I will be playing this expecting the over to firmly be in play. I won’t get cute with this one. The only question is what role playing, salary savers to play. 

• HOU Side: I think most people will go back to Kenny Stills but he hasn’t produced in multiple spots when given the opportunity. I will pivot to the TE Darren Fells as Tennessee is horrible guarding the TE spot. A potential low owned gem. 

• TEN Side: Henry will be the chalk but the true way to expose the Texans is through the air and they are only getting softer with JJ Watt out of the lineup. Ryan Tannehill to AJ Brown is a great option and if looking for a nice pivot I don’t mind Corey Davis.

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Detroit Lions. Over/Under 47.5.

Probable Outcome:

• Plenty of injury issues in this game. It will make it very interesting as I do think this will be high scoring and there is clear talent I want on both sides and also value that will help fit in some studs. Finding the right mix of talent and value will be key to this one.

• TB Side: I am uncertain if the Jameis Winston finger injury will lower ownership but I love this spot for him on the road and in a dome. The best way to attack Detroit is on the ground but that timeshare is too unstable for me as a core play. Even though Darius Slay will be on Chris Godwin I think he sees an uptick in his already awesome usage. I won’t shy away from the matchup. If you do want to pivot, I expect O.J. Howard to become the de-facto WR2 on this offense and that is a pretty valuable role.

• DET Side: The Lions face the ultimate pass funnel defense. So I will only target the air game. David Blough makes for an interesting QB value, you might not need it but who knows. Best play in this matchup is probably Kenny Golladay as he will receive an uptick in usage with Jones out for season. Those are the safest bets for production.

Alternative Outcome:

• I highlighted the core plays above so now let’s highlight some ancillary pieces that should find their way into some stacks. 

• TB Side: Detroit is horrible against the run so if you must play an RB, I think Ronald Jones is my go to. However, I would prefer to still attack through the air as Jameis can sustain multiple WR performances. Consider Breshad Perriman or Justin Watson in your builds.

• DET Side: If this game turns into a shootout, who will be the #2 beneficiary behind Golladay? The best bet is Danny Amendola but I will also research this Chris Lacy fellow and see if he makes sense as it appears he will see plenty of action.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-11). Over/Under 48.

Probable Outcome:

• Another game being rapidly bet up at the sportsbook. The 49ers are banged up on defense which should allow the Falcons to at least put up some points on their end. Which could lead to another TASTY stack spot. Let’s dive in.

• ATL Side: I expect the Falcons to be down early and big in this game so I am going to skip over the RB spot, It’s hard to trust Falcons run O anyway. Through the air, injuries are mounting up as Ridley is out for the year. Julio Jones and Austin Hooper should soak up a few more targets and the injured secondary of San Fran really helps them.

• SF Side: For the 49ers, it appears the RB timeshare is starting to evaporate and out emerges Raheem Mostert. It’s always a risk Breida or Coleman get in on the action but I am willing to take a chance. I expect them to hand the ball off quite a bit in this game.

Contrarian View:

• San Francisco defense is certainly capable of shutting down Atlanta and I might have a few builds fading Atlanta but they also have some nice value that is hard to ignore. 

• ATL Side: If you like the pass catchers for the Falcons, then it makes sense to consider Matt Ryan correct? Also monitor the beat writers for Atlanta to see who is going to get some run at WR. Russell Gage should step in to a bigger role but I will also have my eye on Blake/Hardy/Zaccheaus depending on who I hear gets the #3 role. 

• SF Side: If this game turns into a higher scoring affair, I would consider Jimmy Garappolo and his pass catchers. You can pair him up with Deebo Samuel or Emmanuel Sanders or George Kittle.

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