NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 16

Week 16 is the final “normal” week of our DFS season. Next week we will have so much value from starters being rested that it feels more like an NBA slate where we want to find increased opportunity first and foremost, and then worry about match-ups.  So let’s dive into this week and hope you hit it big.

For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

All lines are current as of Thursday Afternoon:

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1). Over/Under 46.5.

Probable Outcome:

• We have two horrible defense playing horrible offenses with both teams trying to tank for draft picks. So what’s going to break? I actually like the over in this game as I think the offenses have shown life recently. So let’s jump in.

• CIN Side: Miami can be gashed via the ground or air. My favorite play will be the sudden resurgence of Joe Mixon. He will be involved no matter the score. I probably won’t get crazy with stacks in my main builds because… Bengals.

• MIA Side: Cincinnati has been surprisingly decent against WR’s and TE’s but I think that’s more a function of them being so bad at run D. I have faded Laird each time this last month and plan to do it again. That means I will take a shot with the air attack as I think this game hits the over. Ryan Fitzpatrick is in play and DeVante Parker produced coming off a concussion so fire him up.

Alternative Outcome:

• There is true shootout potential in this spot. It’s risky, but I will have plenty of builds opening this up to a game stack. 

• CIN Side: The air attack is in just as good a spot as Mixon so I will fire up the Andy Dalton. The question is who to pair him with? The safest play is Tyler Boyd but I will also consider a #Yolo play in John Ross. 

• MIA Side: I already made my stance with Laird, just not worth it. So if I am opening this up more, it would probably be Mike Gesicki who has shown some skill with Fitzmagic slinging the ball to him. 

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans. Over/Under 50.

Probable Outcome:

• Plenty at stake for both teams so this is a good spot to not overthink things and get some action on this likely high scoring affair. We don’t have to gauge motivation or playing time in this one.

• NO Side: The Titans defense are textbook average across the board on defense. Works out well since the Saints have a pretty narrow target tree if you want to play them. I am going to lean the passing game in this potential back and forth matchup. I probably don’t have to waste typing it out but Drew Brees and Michael Thomas always make sense but I wouldn’t forget about Jared Cook as the Titans are most vulnerable over the middle.

• TEN Side: I will preach caution with AJ Brown as he will be shadowed by Lattimore in this matchup. I still like Ryan Tannehill to get it done and don’t mind playing him without a pass catcher but if I am going to side with anyone it would be a value of Corey Davis.

Alternative Outcome:

• There are injuries to monitor in this game (especially Saints defensive side of ball that might open up some more avenues for fantasy success. I will continue to monitor as the week progresses because if Saints at full strength I might be more cautious with Titan plays. 

• NO Side: It’s been a struggle so far this year, but Alvin Kamara is in a decent spot and he will be involved regardless of score. He makes for an interesting GPP pivot.

• TEN Side: This is where I will want to monitor injuries across the Saints defensive line. They are normally stout against the run but that could change and we also know what December Derrick Henry looks like.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7). Over/Under 45.

Probable Outcome:

• Both teams are winding down the season in disappointment. The Chargers were viable Super Bowl contenders while Oakland started off the season on a roll only to become the team we thought they were. Motivation/Injuries will be an area to monitor in this game as we get closer to the weekend.

• OAK Side: The Raiders should find themselves down in this game as they have shown little life the last few games. Fortunately, some of their younger players continue to fight so I will have interest in Darren Waller as he will get fed with Tyrell being shadowed by Casey Heyward. Deandre Washington also appears to get all the carries as Jacobs is being shut down.
• LAC Side: The Chargers get the juiciest piece of this matchup as they should impose their will however they please. Since this could turn into a blowout, I will lean on the running game. Austin Ekeler is the superior back and I will have him in lineups but we can’t discount Melvin Gordon either as the likely clock killing back. Pair either up with the Chargers Defense for a good correlation play.

Contrarian View:

• If the Raiders can keep this competitive, it weakens the defense play but opens up the passing game on the Chargers side. 

• OAK: Not changing my stance here. If you think Oakland can’t keep it competitive, it will be thanks to Waller and Washington. 

• LAC Side: Ekeler can be linked to the passing attack as well but all the pass catchers have a great matchup. I will have plenty of builds that go heavy on this game with a combination of Philip Rivers to my choice of Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and/or Mike Williams.

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