NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 2

Week 1 of “The Scripts” was a success. Hope you found the right pieces in order to cash big. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it. For Week 2, I opted to dive into some Thursday Night Football plus Rams v Saints in the game of the week. I also scripted a couple of games with larger spread’s as players sometimes overthink those spots.

As emphasized last week, the season is early and we still don’t truly know who these teams are (OK I know who the Dolphins are). We will rely on last year and what we gathered from Week 1 but there are still so many uncertainties. As we saw last week when a lot of my contrarian viewpoints hit, it pays to think outside the box when assessing these matchups.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

All lines are current as of Wednesday morning.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7). Over/Under 49.5

Probable Outcome:

• Last week, I emphasized the strategy of fading the TNF game because ownership tends to get inflated. People love to start players in prime time. This week, we have an attractive TNF game that should feature plenty of scoring. It has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games of the week, so this week, I recommend playing the TNF-MNF slate and going heavy in this matchup.

• T.B. Side: The Panthers are (theoretically) stronger against the run than the pass so this sets up perfectly for the Bucs team that should want to air it out. The Bucs looks pretty brutal in Week 1 but I anticipate a better performance this week. I think the spread is fair so this bodes well for Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard having to keep airing it out to keep pace with the Panthers. The Panthers struggled with the slot last week so if I have a lean, it would be to Godwin. Evans has struggled against the Panthers over the past 4 years.

• CAR Side: The Panthers put up 27 points in a game where they didn’t look particularly sharp (besides CMC). This matchup might be exactly what they need so I will be back on the air game. I will avoid Olson simply due to his injury history and this being a short week, but he is an interesting GPP Pivot. I will definitely stack this game up with shares of Cam Newton, Christian McCaffery, Curtis Samuels, and D.J. Moore. The Bucs are going to struggle on defense all year and should find themselves in many shootouts. Time to capitalize.

Contrarian View:

• As I mentioned above, the Bucs looked pretty pathetic on Sunday. Now they have to pick themselves up and play on a short week. If I was to lean a side to play flat (and to fade in this spot) it would be Bucs. People assumed Arians could cure Jameis Winston but that might be easier said than done. This game could project as an easier win for Carolina than Vegas projects (something like 24-13) 

• T.B. Side: I will definitely make some tournaments fading this team. In the above scenario, the entire team is off limits for me. Sure, someone like Godwin can rake up tons of catches in a low scoring game, but I will take my chances elsewhere. Jameis needs to show me something before I heavily invest in this team again. 

• CAR Side: Carolina is the type of team that will completely take the air out of the ball when they control the game. They have a great RB (and running QB) plus a few WR’s who can make plays in the short passing game. It makes a stack very risky because if they don’t break a big play, they will be happy establishing 10+ play drives and eat the clock. In this scenario, I only feel comfortable rostering Another sneaky play is the Panthers D (either on its own or pair with CMC). When the Bucs struggle, they make the game look ugly. Jameis is as mistake prone as they come. A defensive score is definitely in play. 

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5). Over/Under 53

 

 

 

 

Probable Outcome:

• The NFL Week 2 game of the week and a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game. This one is projected to shootout and both teams operate the same as last year, but still different (more on this below). It’s not a secret that many will flock to this for stacking purposes, the key will be the right pieces. I will not only rely on the NFC Championship box score but also their 45-35 shootout from last November.

• NO Side: The air and ground game are both at play here. However, I like to avoid Drew Brees on the road AND in situations where Taysom Hill is lurking to vulture a TD. While I am off Brees, that still leaves his skill position players. Alvin Kamara has a juicy matchup after watching CMC dissect the Rams defense last week. He also went off in their November matchup in the Dome. Latavius Murray lurks to vulture a TD but Alvin’s upside is just too high in this spot to worry about it. I am also going to sprinkle in some Michael Thomas (matchup proof) and Jared Cook (Olsen was open quite a bit last week vs. Rams). If you are playing in very large GPP’s, Ginn and T. Smith make sense as dart throws.

• LA Side: Let’s start with the running game, Gurley was very efficient last week and showed he can still be an elite playmaker. However, the Rams are (smartly) monitoring his workload and I don’t see that changing in week 2. He is still priced high on DraftKings and I see him in a timeshare. Sure he can get there, but I like other spots better. Jared Goff and his home/road splits are discussed almost as much as Drew Brees’. He will be a play for me. The question is which pass catcher? Monitor the news to see if Marshawn Lattimore is going to shadow Brandon Cooks or Robert Woods. If we get any intel, I will focus on the one not being shadowed. Cooper Kupp rounds it out as a good bet to get 7-8 targets and was a red zone favorite of Goff’s last year before the injury. The tight ends are a stay away for me.

Contrarian View:

• Both games last year played close with the regular season game going for 80 combined points. That was in the dome but I do expect this one to comfortably exceed 50 points. Sometimes it’s best to not overthink it. People will get cute and fade this game, but I won’t do it. Make sure to have a piece of this game in almost every lineup you make. 

• I have nothing else to add to a side as I don’t anticipate being off this game. The one nugget I will add that is somewhere I read/heard (sorry I forgot who so can’t give credit) the 2^nd best defensive situation to attack is high scoring close games. We saw it last week with SF v. TB, a pick-em game that resulted in SF scoring 2 defensive touchdowns. This game might produce something as well. Both are options but if I had to pick, I would lean the Saints D as Goff is prone to more mistakes than the dink and dunk efficient style of Drew Brees. 

New England Patriots (-19) at Miami Dolphins. Over/Under 48

Probable Outcome:

• I script this game for the purpose of emphasizing something I think is lost on many tournament players. While I fully expect the Patriots to BLOW the Dolphins out of the water (great multi-layered pun there), I will not shy away from the New England starters in fear of a blowout and not having to see all 4 quarters. First, blowouts rarely occur so trying to project one is foolish. Second, in order for the game to be a blowout and risk of pulling starters, the Patriots would need to be up by at least 4 TD’s going into the 4^th. If they are up 28, who got those points for them? Third, Coach Belichick is not one to take his foot off the gas. We saw it Sunday night vs. the Steelers, they will throw late into a game simply because it is working. Projecting who will score for the Patriots (thanks Phillip Dorsett) is the only challenge in this game.

• NE Side: The above narrative explained my plan. I will have exposure to the air, ground, and Defense of New England. Make sure to pair Tom Brady with James White, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and/or Antonio Brown (Monitor his situation). While Sony Michel struggled in the first game, I will have my shares of him as well. Good luck figuring out the magic formula for this side.

• MIA Side: Nope, Nope, Nope. Don’t do it. Don’t get cute. NEXT.

Contrarian View:

• I’m taking a stand with this one. I don’t see it playing out any different than an easy W for New England. The only wrinkle will be if the score is something like 24-3 or 38-14. The more Miami scores, the more opportunities for the Pats to strike again. 

• NE Side: Nothing changes. Get exposure to this team. I might even take a stab at a full onslaught of this side of the ball. 

• MIA Side: Even if I want the Dolphins to put a few points on the board to increase New England’s likelihood of putting up 40+, I will not be trying to figure out who gets there for Miami. Hands off!

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens (-13). Over/Under 46.5

Probable Outcome:

• 2^nd largest spread of the slate. These large spread games typically don’t produce plays on both sides, but I think both teams’ best players, are designed to excel in this specific position. For Baltimore, it’s all about the run, run, run. For Arizona, they will spread it out and try to beat you via the quick passing game (which also exposes them to a lot of pressure). I am banking on this game playing out exactly how Vegas projects.

• ARI Side: The team looked brutal for 3 quarters last week. Those will be the growing pains with a rookie coach and QB. You also saw the inept offense gas the Lions defense which allowed them to rally for a tie. If Arizona only cored their projects 16(ish) points in this matchup, the only two players I will target are Christian Kirk and David Johnson. Johnson will catch plenty of dump offs in a negative running script and Kirk was targeted numerous times last week and just couldn’t haul them all in. I expect him to progress a little towards the mean in a matchup with a depleted secondary.

• BAL Side: What a performance in Week 1. Vegas certainly respects them. If it’s going to pan out like predicted, the Ravens are also a team easier to project for production. On the passing side, it starts and ends with Lamar Jackson. He is capable of producing points for a pass catcher but I am not chasing Hollywood Brown or Mark Andrews when they both saw less than 50% of the snaps. There will be weeks when someone goes off, but it’s tough to nail. Lamar is one of the few QBs I play without pairing up because he could easily produce value himself via the run. On the running side, I am also highly interested in Mark Ingram, the Cardinals defense is projected to be a league worst and Mark can get it done via air or ground. One of my best performing lineups last week was a Lamar/Ingram stack. People tend to avoid that QB/RB pairing. And of course, the Ravens D is one of the best plays. Kyler will be under pressure all game and a rookie QB on the road as a big underdog checks a lot of boxes. 

Contrarian View:

• Week 2 of the NFL season is one of my favorites because it’s the time for the biggest overreactions. This game fits the narrative perfectly. The Ravens came out and beat the crap out of the consensus most pathetic team (Miami) in the league. Now Vegas thinks they merit being a 2 TD favorite? Classic letdown spot. Perhaps they won’t lose but the Ravens D can still put the clamps on the Cardinals and let the offense whimper to a 2-0 start. 

• ARI Side: Still not a believer of the Air Raid offense in the NFL. Each week that passes, is another week of game film on these guys. I believe in NFL talent beating this system. In addition, coaches will get their players acclimated to the fast pace if that’s what did Detroit in. I will have plenty of lineups ignoring this team entirely. Cross them off the list. 

• BAL Side: Like I said, Baltimore can still win an ugly game, they don’t have to put up 28 points. This game may very well be something like 16-10, thanks to the defense locking down a young Cardinals team. I think the Ravens will be uber popular in GPP’s and I will take plenty of stances that they come out flat after last week’s dominating performance. Another avoid for me and hope the chalk doesn’t produce.

 

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