NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 8

Week 7 was a fun and profitable week, not GPP take down screen shot profitable, but still nice. In Week 8 I decided to write up a few games I didn’t consider at first glance but the more I dug into the matchup, thought it offered some sneaky good plays. I also address the SNF game as the Chiefs are no longer a lock and load, “play all the dudes” type analysis. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

All lines are current as of Wednesday Evening

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6). Over/Under 41.

Probable Outcome:

• I think this line is off because of the public embarrassment the Jets faced on MNF. Two weeks ago the beat the Cowboys so I like this as a bounce back spot with a lot to decipher due to Darnold being back and Ramsey being shipped to the west coast.

• NYJ Side: Jaguars were already lousy against the run and just traded Ramsey so they will regress against the pass. I don’t agree with Vegas on this spread or low total, so I will probably lean Leveon Bell as my core on the Jets side as they will ride him to a road W.

• JAX Side: For the Jags, if they are down against the Jets, they can attack them in a faster paced matchup via ground or air. Leonard Fournette is getting all the touches so he is game script proof. Also think DJ Chark will bounce back after a slow game last week and the Jets don’t have a corner we need to worry about.

Contrarian View:

• Didn’t want to write this up as a probable outcome but I like this game (especially Jets side) as a sneaky GPP stacking option. 

• NYJ Side: While you can play Bell through the passing game, I will also have interest in Sam Darnold to Robby Anderson in GPP stacks. I will probably avoid Crowder as he is more of a floor play than ceiling and Herndon may or may not play but will take wait and see on him. Plus, the Jags are stout against TE’s. 

• JAX Side: Depending on which pieces I grab for the Jets, I will grab corresponding pieces for the Jags (If I script Jets through the air, probably lean Jags ground game or vice versa). Other piece of this puzzle I will mention is Dede Westbrook as he came on last week and has played well, just been overshadowed by Chark in the first half of the season. 

Tampa Bay Bucs at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) Over/Under 45.5.

Probable Outcome:

• Another game with sneaky shootout potential. I hate to love this spot for the Titans so much but it just makes too much sense. Sometimes you just have to plug your nose and dive in. It won’t always hit but can’t be scared to lose.

• TB Side: Tennessee is designed to take away the air game, which is the only thing the Bucs do well do this is a dangerous spot for Tampa. I want no part of a committee run game. You can always bank on the talent of Godwin and/or Evans. I would lean Mike Evans as I believe he has 6 inches on all the corners.

• TEN Side: For the Titans, The Bucs are a true pass funnel defense that stuffs the run but bleeds points through the air. Tannehill showed life last week so he is on radar as a GPP play and he was able to get the ball to his WR’s in Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. Won’t stack but think these Titans guys make a nice final piece if it works for rest of lineup. Also love the Titans D as we know what happens when Jameis starts throwing.

Contrarian View:

• Now here is where I get really crazy. I emphasized these are nice final pieces as the probable outcome (most likely cash game plays) but for GPP’s it merits a discussion of stacking possibilities as this game could hit the over pretty easily. 

• TB Side: The one area of weakness for Tennessee is their D against TE’s. Enter O.J. Howard (monitor injury news, Cameron Brate I love if he starts). This will be the last time I recommend him but they are coming off a bye, if he is going to get out of the funk, this is his time.

• TEN Side: For Titans, the script matches up well for Derrick Henry, a GPP only play but he has the talent to bust out a 200-yard game at any time. Also monitor injury news for Delanie Walker, Jonnu Smith makes a cheap flyer if he is starting. Depending on what injury news we get, I plan on mixing and matching both sides of this game in several GPP’s.

Green Bay Packers (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs. Over/Under 47.5.

Probable Outcome:

• I had a policy to not write up any KC Chiefs games as its pretty simple, you can find a reason to play ALMOST any of them. However, with Matt Moore at the helm, we get a chance to dive in and dissect the matchup against the Packers.

• GB Side: The defense of the Chiefs might change their identity to adjust for Mahomes but I find that unlikely and will bank on them still being attackable, especially on the ground. Aaron Jones is in a great spot as the Packers will try to take a lead and dismay Matt Moore on Defense (stack them up).

• KC Side: Green bay is stout against the pass and soft against the run which is probably what KC wants as they ease in the backup QB. I expect more carries from McCoy and Williams but I can’t decipher which will get enough touches to merit a play. I will be hands off on this offense for the most part and wait to see if Andy Reid can work his magic on Matt Moore.

Contrarian View:

• Even if Green Bay is able to pull away with this, KC will be required to air it out as they can’t be conservative forever. The more KC scores, the more chances for Packers to put up value. 

• GB Side: Monitor the injury news but I would love to pair Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams if he is healthy. It’s looking doubtful so I will follow the beat writers to see who will get the majority of snaps this week. Allen Lazard still got the most run last week even though MVS and Allison were playing. Jimmy Graham has played really well in the absence of Adams so he is in play as a lower owned TE. 

• KC side: While I anticipate the Chiefs having to continue to air it out, I won’t be playing Moore until he shows me something. I think his ownership will be inflated in primetime. I will also bump down the ancillary pieces of this offense like Hardman and Watkins (if healthy). However, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have the talent to beat any matchup and I will have a sprinkle or two. Packers are soft against TE’s so Kelce is my favorite if we have to prioritize. Remember, these guys are still priced like they play with one of the best QB’s on the planet.

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