NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 9
Week 8 was another smash spot for “The Scripts.” Landed 2nd in another TNF-MNF GPP, all these runner-up finishes are making me sick, but hey, money is money. Let’s see if we can FIST our way through that ceiling this week and take one down! For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.
As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.
All lines are current as of Thursday Morning.
Minnesota Vikings (-1) at KC Chiefs. Over/Under 49.
Mahomes plays Outcome:
- Found this line on MGM. Most books have this off the board as we await news on Patrick Mahomes and (to a lesser extent) Adam Thielen. Instead of my usual probable/contrarian script, I am going to run this one with/without Mahomes. The line listed above clearly reflects MGM’s feeling Mahomes is out.
- MIN Side: Minnesota is really starting to click on offense but they still want to establish the run. If Mahomes is in, this game will project to be higher scoring and more avenues open up for MIN to score 25+ points. With Mahomes in, Kirk Cousins will once again be asked to take the lead. I love pairing him with Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs. Would lean Thielen if we get a clean bill of health. The best play will be Dalvin Cook as he will get fed regardless of score and he has best matchup on the board. Don’t mind a stack with him and a pass catcher either.
- KC Side: IF Mahomes is in, the passing game is going to be fired up. The Vikes are built to stop the run so fire up those Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce. If you can’t tell, this is the best game on the board if Patrick plays. Complete game stack viable.
Matt Moore Plays Outcome:
- Matt Moore was efficient last week and the Packers defense is comparable to Minnesota. Both are good defenses but not great enough that I would completely avoid. Basically, I think it’s still a sneaky spot for KC offense and I think most people will be off if Matt Moore plays which makes a good pivot game. I won’t go overboard but it’s still stackable.
MIN Side: If Matt Moore plays, the Vikes will be the favorite in a hostile road game. Basically see above but flip it to Dalvin Cook being the piece I want in almost all my lineups. He will get fed early and often and this game will slow down considerably because Chiefs can’t produce as quickly.
- KC Side: While I still like this offense, they simply can’t be as fast paced with Moore under center. Their scoring will come from more methodical drives which is fine but produces a less tan desirable spot for game stacking. Nevertheless, I will still eye Matt Moore to Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce. The running game and ancillary pieces are complete hands off.
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2). Over/Under 50.5.
Probable Outcome:
- Usually not the teams we associate with the potential highest scoring game of the week but in digging into the matchups, each offense does well what the opposing defense struggles against. I am on board this being a high scoring affair and it has game stack potential written all over it.
– DET Side: Boy o boy did that Ty Johnson chalk blow up in everyone’s face, well it makes this week simple, avoid the RBBC. That leaves us with the passing game which is perfect as Vegas projects Detroit to play from behind. Oakland is league worst at giving up points to QB’s so Matthew Stafford is my cash game and favorite QB target early on in the week. We obviously stack in these situations and Oakland is bottom 3 against TE’s so T.J. Hockenson makes a nice lower owned GPP play. Oakland also struggles against WR’s so I will have plenty of shares of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones.
- OAK Side: Lions can’t stop the air or ground games, so pair up Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams, and Darren Waller in the best correlation you see fit. If Oakland indeed wins this game, I believe Josh Jacobs will be a key to victory so I love him as my prime piece.
Contrarian View:
- Some people might advocate fading in this spot, but I am going all in. Like I emphasized above, it’s about mixing and matching the correct pieces. So get creative.
- DET Side: One lower owned pivot that might make sense is Danny Amendola. He usually isn’t a ceiling play but he can reel off 6 catches for 50 yards and be a cheap source of points. If value doesn’t open up on this slate, he might be a go to target for me.
- OAK Side: Since I already advocated for playing all the dudes, I will caution Tyrell has a matchup against Darius Slay who I think is a top 5 cover corner. If I am going to go light on any player, it will be him.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens. Over/Under 45.
Probable Outcome:
- Sunday night secures the NFL game of the week. Definitely going to have some ramifications in the AFC playoff battle. Let’s see what this offers from a DFS perspective as the Patriots are about a FG favorite on the road.
- NE Side: The Ravens are stingy on defense but only elite vs. tight ends and we don’t have to worry about that here. Since matchups aren’t pushing us in a certain direction, how do the Patriots usually game plan? Well hell, they like to spread the ball around and they play their game regardless of score. In sum, pick your angle and stick to it. I won’t go through the effort of naming who those people are, you know them. Pick the running game or passing or a bit of both.
- BAL Side: This is where it gets fun. Can the electric Lamar Jackson best the elite Patriots defense? I am going to side with the elite defense in this one as we saw last postseason what good game planning can do to Lamar Jackson. No better game planner than New England so I will tread lightly in this situation.
Contrarian View:
- As you can see from above, I am treading lightly in this game. It’s a prime time matchup and will garner above average ownership, so sometimes the best play is to fade the public. There is potential for a shootout though so let’s run through some GPP plays.
- NE Side: Nothing really changes from above but if they are going to put up points the safest bet is Tom Brady as you are getting chunks of all the scoring in case he spreads it around. Only at risk if Sony steals another 3 TD’s on the ground.
- BAL side: I envision Lamar Jackson trying to play hero in this game and it backfiring. If it pans out though, he is a good bet to see the vast majority of TD equity. I would pair him up with his tight end Mark Andrews.
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