NFL DFS Value Plays-Week 3
As discussed in my two previous weekly articles, I rely on two very important pieces of data to provide a foundation for most of my lineup suggestions. These two criteria are: 1) implied point totals; and 2) the average number of DraftKings points that a defense gives up to each of the four skill positions(QBs/RBs/WRS and TEs). Although the Chiefs have the highest implied total at 31, there are 13 teams on the “main slate” that have implied totals of 25 or more.
Week Two Results:
As it turned out, week two was a mixed bag of results. I had one really good pick at each of the four skill positions, but the other selection left something to be desired. My hits were:1) QB Teddy Bridgewater(26-34 for 328 yards and two TD’s); 2) RB Chase Edmonds( five catches and 75 yards of total offense-12.5 PPR fantasy points); 3) WR Rondale Moore( 7 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown-24.4 fantasy points); and 4) TE Noah Fant(4 catches for 33 yards and a touchdown-13.3 fantasy points).
Unfortunately, the misses were: 1) QB Ben Roethlisberger(27-40 for 295 yards and one TD); 2) RB Elijah Mitchell(17 carries for 42 yards and two catches for 11 yards-7.3 fantasy points); WR Jalen Reagor(2 catches for five yards-2.5 points); and 4) TE Cole Kmet(1 catch for zero yards-1 fantasy point).
Quarterbacks:
Teddy Bridgewater($5800) vs Jets based on his overall career stats and training camp battle with Drew Lock, I would have never guessed that Bridgewater would be suggested two weeks in a row as a value play. Irregardless, here we are. As mentioned above, Bridgewater threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns in week two, and now has completed 54 of 70 pass attempts(77.1 %) on the season for 592 yards and four touchdowns.
In week three, “Teddy B” has another favorable matchup, at home vs the Jets. In 2020, the Jets gave up the third most fantasy points to QBs. The Broncos come into the game as a 10.5 point favorite, and the implied total is 28. Fantasy owners should expect another solid day from Bridgewater, with potential to be a top ten quarterback this week.
Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate: Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones(Giants) $5800 vs Falcons being perfectly honest, I am thankful that my colleague Brad Berreman held Jones in higher esteem than I dreamed imaginable. I’ll always envision Jones falling face first into the turf as he headed for an apparent touchdown against the Eagles in 2020. After two weeks, it’s time for Jones’s naysayers to stand up and take notice.
Through two weeks, Jones has completed 44 of 69 pass attempts(63.8 percent) for 516 yards and two touchdowns. He has also added 15 carries for 122 yards and an additional two touchdowns. This was all done against two good defenses(Denver and Washington). In week three, Jones will get an opportunity to take advantage of a Falcons’s defense that has given up an average of forty points per game this season. Jones should finish as a top 15 QB this week, and be at a great price point for DFS.
Running Backs:
Myles Gaskin(Dolphins) $5400 @ Raiders although Gaskin(14 carries for 74 yards through two games) and the rest of the Dolphins’s offense has really struggled, he has provided a solid floor by hauling in nine receptions over those two games.
in week three, the Dolphins travel to Las Vegas to face a Raiders’s defense that allowed the fourth most fantasy points in 2020. As Gaskin has averaged 5.3 yards per carry in his limited totes , DFS players have to hope for more volume from him. Look for Gaskin to get those carries, as the Dolphins are only four point road underdogs. If he does, he will be a top 20 running back in week three.
Javonte Williams(Broncos) $4900 vs Jets through the first two games of his rookie season, Williams has provided a solid floor for his DFS owners. He has 27 carries for 109 yards, but has failed to score his first touchdown. He has also only had two catches(on two targets) for 6 yards, despite hauling in a combined 42 receptions over his final two seasons playing for the University of North Carolina.
in week three, the Broncos implied total is 28 against a Jets’s defense that allowed the 14th most fantasy points to RBs in 2020. Look for Williams to expand his receiving role and/or score that elusive first touchdown. He has the opportunity to finish as a top 24 running back this week.
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Wide Receivers:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/players/rondale-moore.php
Rondale Moore(Cardinals) $5k @ Jags as is usually the case, DraftKings reacted to Moore’s big performance(7 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown) by raising his price tag from $4k to $5k. The biggest question is, did they raise it enough?
Facing a Jaguars’s defense that gave up the 11th most fantasy points in 2020 and sporting an implied total of 29, I am willing to take a gamble that they did not. Moore leads the Cardinals with 13 targets through two games, and deserves to get more opportunities moving forward. Look for Moore to be a top 30 wide receiver this week and provide the salary flexibility that you need for DFS.
Darnell Mooney(Bears) $4300 @ Browns just like Moore, Mooney has been very involved in the Bears’s passing game with 15 targets and a 95 percent snap share. Unlike Moore, he has not had the benefit of good quarterback play. Andy Dalton has yet to attempt a pass of more than fifteen yards, but Justin Fields will replace the injured Dalton this week.
Despite a low implied total of only 19 points, Mooney is worth the gamble against a Browns’s defense that allowed the 8th most fantasy points to WRs last year. At his price point, Mooney allows DFS players to select more higher priced players for their lineups.
Tight Ends:
Embed from Getty ImagesTyler Higbee(Rams) $4k vs Bucs as is often the case for tight ends, Higbee has failed to be consistent over the first two games of the season. In week one against the Bears, Higbee had five catches(on six targets) for 68 yards. In week two at the Colts, Higbee was held to only one catch for eight yards. With Gerald Everett signing as a free agent with the Seahawks, Higbee no longer has to look over his shoulder.
in week three, the Rams host the Bucs. The Bucs allowed the tenth most fantasy points to TEs in 2020 and the implied total is 27. Look for Higbee to bounce back and finish as a low end top ten tight end this week.
Jared Cook(Chargers)$3800 @ Chiefs in full discretion, I want every piece of this game that I can fit into my lineup. With an over/under of 55, it is the highest total on the “main slate”. Through two games, Cook has eight catches(on thirteen targets) for 84 yards and zero touchdowns.
QB Justin Herbert has struggled to find the end zone so far this season, with only two touchdown passes. Against the highflying Chiefs, Herbert will have to do more to be competitive. The Chiefs allowed the 8th most fantasy points to TEs in 2020, so Cook will have an opportunity to put up a solid stat line.
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