NFL DFS Week 4 Battle Analysis By Infantryboys For 10/1 and 10/4

Every week during the NFL season, I’m going to be presenting a “battle analysis” for the week’s slate of games. I’ll be giving you my best plays of the week and why I think they’re the best values. If you’re coming over from season long fantasy football and you’re new to DFS, you’ll want to check out my article “The Ten Commandments of NFL Daily Fantasy Sport.” Remember, DFS isn’t about targeting stars, it’s about targeting VALUE. I’ll also be letting you know why I’m avoiding, or “fading” some popular players.

My top targets of the week will be presented in two categories. I stole this terminology from my days in the Army. First there are the 50 meter targets. These players represent the safest plays and best value of the week. Secondly there will also be my 300 meter targets. These players still represent good value but are more “hit or miss” than the 50 meter targets. Generally speaking, 300 meter targets are best reserved for tournaments only.

You’ll see I’ve presented stats for both teams in every contest. These are weighted stats from Football Outsiders, rather than just generic team averages. I strongly suggest using Football Outsiders in your research as well. I’ll begin using 2015 stats in week 5. Until then, the sample size is just too small to be relevant.

Finally, always be careful with players from the Thursday night game in GPPs. They’ll be artificially, highly owned. I generally tend to fade these players.

LEGEND:

50M TARGETS

Best value and safest targets on the slate. These players make good cash and tournament plays.

300M TARGETS

Good value and high upside, but can be “boom or bust.” These players are best used in tournaments.

 

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH

Vegas – O/U – 44.5; Baltimore – 2.5

BALTIMORE

2014 wDef – 12^th Pass D – 15^th , Run D – 5^th

2014 wOff – 8^th Pass O – 6^th, Run O – 18^th

Even though the Ravens have yet to win a game this season, Joe Flacco has thrown for 764 yards and two TDs in his last two games. He gets to face a Steelers secondary rated 30th in the NFL. He’s one of the best QB values on the Thursday slate of games. Steve Smith Sr, who has a 25/349/2 line on 40 targets this season, is also an attractive target.

The Ravens running game is yet to get on track this season and has to face a good Steelers front seven. There’s nothing here even remotely attractive.

50M TARGETS

Joe Flacco ($8,000 FD; $6,000 DK)

Steve Smith Sr ($7,300 FD; $6,200 DK)

300M TARGETS

None

PITTSBURGH

2014 wDef – 27^th Pass D- 30^th, Run D 17^th

2014 wOff – 2^nd Pass O – 1^st, Run O – 11^th

Michael Vick downgrades the high-priced talent on the Steelers to the point that they’re completely unplayable, even in a favorable match up against a bad Ravens secondary.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI

Vegas – O/U – 41; New York Jets – 2.5

NEW YORK JETS

2014 wDef – 22^nd.  Pass D – 24^th, Run D – 11^th

2014 wOff – 18^th Pass O – 27^th, Run O – 17^th

The Jets offense has been much better this season than last. Eric Decker is questionable for this game, but Brandon Marshall has been a stud this season, having already been targeted 33 times. A match up with CB Brent Grimes and an extremely low over/under however makes Marshall a 300M target.

Chris Ivory, who is battling quad and groin injuries, was active last week but didn’t play a snap. Check for clarification on his status, but at his normal workload, he would be an attractive target against Miami’s porous run defense that’s allowing 145 yards per game on the ground.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Brandon Marshall ($7,800 FD; $6,800 DK)

Chris Ivory ($6,900 FD; $4,800 DK)

MIAMI

2014 wDef – 25^th Pass D – 16^th, Run D – 18^th

2014 wOff – 7^th Pass O – 11^th, Run O – 2^nd

The Dolphins offense has yet to really start clicking this season. QB Ryan Tannehill played one of his worse games as a professional against an elite Bills defense last week. Now they get to travel to London to take on an equally tough Jets defense. No thanks.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS

Vegas – O/U – 47; Indianapolis – 8.5

JACKSONVILLE

2014 wDef – 16^th Pass D 17^th, Run D 20^th

2014 wOff – 29th Pass O – 32nd, Run O – 20th

The Jaguars have seemingly made a weekly commitment to running the ball with T.J. Yeldon, but game flow and offensive line concerns have capped his production. While the Colts have sometimes struggled against the run and Yeldon is one of only a few three down backs, the Jaguars offensive line as well as the Vegas line caps Yeldon’s upside in this game.

Outside of Allen Robinson, who has slashed a 11/240/2 line on 27 targets this season, there is little consistency or talent in the passing game. Robinson will probably draw coverage from Vontae Davis, if he’s healthy, so it’s a situation to monitor.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

T.J. Yeldon ($6,400 FD; $4,400 DK)

Allen Robinson ($6,500 FD; $5,500 DK)

INDIANAPOLIS

2014 wDef – 11^th Pass D – 10^th, Run D – 19^th

2014 wOff – 22^nd Pass O – 13^th, Run O – 27^th

A furious 4th quarter comeback on Sunday saved the Colts from going 0-3 to start the season. The offensive line has struggled to protect Andrew Luck and open holes in the running game and as a result, the offense has bogged down considerably this season. Luck, feeling the pressure to make things happen, has been a turnover machine and the skill positions  are feeling the effects of injury and age. Against a very average defense, that was ripped apart by the Patriots last week, this could be a “get well” game for the Colts, but I’ll have to see more before I go all in on this team.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

T.Y. Hilton ($7,600 FD; $6,700 DK)

Donte Moncrief ($6,300 FD; $5,000 DK)

 

NEW YORK GIANTS @ BUFFALO

Vegas – O/U – 46; Buffalo – 6

NEW YORK GIANTS

2014 wDef – 26^th Pass D – 21^st , Run D – 27^th

2014 wOff – 14^th Pass O – 12^th, Run O – 23^rd

The Bills have an elite defense but have been hemorrhaging passing yards but outside of Odell Beckham Jr, the Giants are an uninspiring, inconsistent team. No Giants players are high on my fantasy radar this week, but I wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of Beckham or Rueben Randle.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Rueben Randle ($5,700 FD; $4,600 DK)

BUFFALO

2014 wDef – 2^nd.  Pass D – 1^st, Run D – 12^th

2014 wOff – 25^th Pass O – 24^th, Run O – 28^th

While the Bills, with head coach Rex Ryan are thought of as primarily a defensive oriented team, the offense under 1st year starter Tyrod Taylor, has been chugging away very nicely. Taylor has thrown for 714 yards and 7 TDs, good for a 116.1 QBR and added another 96 yards on the ground. He’s in an excellent position against a bottom rated defense. With Sammy Watkins dealing with injuries most of the season, Percy Harvin has quietly emerged as Taylor’s favorite target and is also in a good position against the Giants.

In the running game, LeSean McCoy has been “running on one and a half legs” and has not been efficient. Backup Karlos Williams has been much better, averaging 7.8 yards per carry with 3 TDs, but with McCoy in the picture, isn’t getting enough touches to be a viable fantasy option. If McCoy sits out the game to get healthy though, Williams becomes an attractive target. Finally, the Giants are only allowing 74.7 yards per game on the ground versus 345 in the air.

50M TARGETS

Tyrod Taylor ($7,600 FD; $5,800 DK)

Dan Carpenter ($4,700 FD)

300M TARGETS

Percy Harvin ($5,700 FD; $4,800 DK)

 

CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY

Vegas – O/U – 39.5; Carolina – 3

CAROLINA

2014 wDef – 9^th Pass D- 9^th, Run D – 23^rd

2014 wOff – 20^th Pass O – 23^rd, Run O – 16^th

Carolina offensively has become a two man show, with Cam Newton and Greg Olsen shouldering the majority of the load. Both players are definitely in play here against a middle of the road Tampa Bay pass defense. Since being only targeted 3 times in the first game of the season, Olsen has received 25 targets in the last two games and is definitely the focal point of the game plan.

On the ground, even though the Panthers have a good match up and game flow in their favor, the line has struggled to open holes and Jonathan Stewart is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. He also is giving way to Mike Tolbert in short yardage situations and Cam Newton is the de facto goal line back.

50M TARGETS

Greg Olsen ($6,300 FD; $5,400 DK)

300M TARGETS

Cam Newton ($8,300 FD; $7,000 DK)

Panthers Defense ($4,800 FD; $3,300 DK)

TAMPA BAY

2014 wDef – 15^th Pass D – 23^rd, Run D – 8^th

2014 wOff – 32^nd Pass O – 32^nd, Run O – 31^st

Tampa Bay had the worst offense in the NFL last season and it hasn’t gotten much better this year. The Bucs rank 26th in total offense and get to face one of the stingier defenses in the league. I’ll continue to pass on Tampa until I see some better play from Jameis Winston.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON

Vegas – O/U – 47.5, Philadelphia – 3.5

PHILADELPHIA

2014 wDef – 9^th Pass D- 9^th, Run D – 23^rd

2014 wOff – 20^th Pass O – 23^rd, Run O – 16^th

Philadelphia finally won a game last week, but Sam Bradford was underwhelming once again, throwing for only 118 yards. While the Redskins pass defense is nowhere near the level of the Jets, I’m going to have to see some better performances before I can recommend Bradford. Jordan Matthews continues to be the preferred option here, having received 30 targets in three games this season.

The running game has been unsettled with DeMarco Murray injured and largely ineffective. If Murray sits again, Ryan Mathews would be a cheap option against a tough Redskins run defense, but this is a situation better avoided.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Jordan Matthews ($7,000 FD; $6,600 DK)

WASHINGTON

2014 wDef – 30^th Pass D – 32^nd, Run D – 9^th

2014 wOff – 30^th Pass O 25^th, Run O – 19^th

The Redskins are in an interesting situation here. With a relatively high over/under and slight underdogs, game flow favors their passing game, and the Eagles rank 24th against the pass this season. Jordan Reed, who completed 6 of his 9 targets for 96 yards last week and is the obvious choice if we’re going to pick a Redskins player. His price is still reasonable through the industry. DeSean Jackson is questionable and might be a game time decision, but if he plays his price is very low.

The Redskins have been relying on the run, but their backfield has turned into a committee and it’s not known from week to week who will get the most touches. With game flow concerns added, there are safer alternatives.

50M TARGETS

Jordan Reed ($5,600 FD; $4,500 DK)

300M TARGETS

DeSean Jackson ($6,000 FD; $5,800 DK)

 

OAKLAND @ CHICAGO

Vegas – O/U – 44.5; Oakland – 2.5

OAKLAND

2014 wDef – 24^th Pass D – 28^th, Run D – 14^th

2014 wOff – 27^th Pass O – 28^th, Run O – 32^nd

Don’t look now but the Raiders actually have a competent and productive offense. Facing a Bears team that’s allowing 135.7 rushing yards per game as small favorites, the game sets up nicely for bell cow back Latavius Murray. Murray exploded for 139 yards last week and looks primed for another good performance. At his price, he’s my favorite running back on the slate.

Derek Carr and the passing game have also been producing this season.After missing most of week one with a hand injury, Carr has thrown for over 300 yards in his last two games. Rookie Amari Cooper is a star emerging. He has 31 targets on the season and has topped 100 yards the last two weeks. A Carr/Cooper stack is a very economical and sneaky GPP play.

50M TARGETS

Latavius Murray ($7,500 FD; $6,300 DK)

300M TARGETS

Derek Carr ($7,000 FD; $5,300 DK)

Amari Cooper ($7,200 FD; $6,300 DK)

CHICAGO

2014 wDef – 32^nd Pass D – 29^th, Run D – 21^st

2014 wOff – 19^th Pass O – 16^th, Run O – 11^th

The Bears, with back up quarterback Jimmy Clausen, were shut out at Seattle last week. While the Raiders defense is nowhere near as talented as Seattle, this offense is in chaos with Clausen. The possible exception here is Martellus Bennett, the Raiders have been horrible against opposing tight ends.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Martellus Bennett ($5,500 FD; $4,500 DK)

 

HOUSTON @ ATLANTA

Vegas – O/U – 46.5; Altanta – 6.5

HOUSTON

2014 wDef – 4^th Pass D – 6^th, Run D – 16^th

2014 wOff – 23^rd Pass O – 18^th, Run O – 24^th

The Houston Texans currently lead the NFL in pass attempts. Yes you read that correctly. This team desperately needs Arian Foster back, and if he does start against Atlanta, he becomes a very attractive play. If not, the current mess at running back should be avoided.

Game flow favors the Texans passing attack against a below average Atlanta secondary. DeAndre Hopkins has been a stud this season completing 22 of his 38 targets for 252 yards and three TDS. Flying under the radar because he has no touchdowns is Cecil Shorts, who has been targeted 29 times this season. The touch downs will come eventually.

50M TARGETS

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900 FD; $7,300 DK)

300M TARGETS

Cecil Shorts ($5,300 FD; $3,500 DK)

ATLANTA

2014 wDef – 31^st Pass D – 31^st, Run D – 30^th

2014 wOff – 12^th Pass O – 8^th, Run O – 22^nd

Julio Jones has an amazing start to the season and is on pace to set several NFL records. There are some concerns, though. He’s the most expensive player in DFS at the moment, his pace may be unsustainable and he’s had hamstring flare ups this year already. In a game where the script may be against him, temper expectations.

After plodding along when given the chance these past two seasons, Devonta Freeman exploded last week against Dallas. While he’ll have the backfield to himself again and has potential game flow on his side, I wouldn’t go all in on him until we determine last week’s performance wasn’t an aberration.

50M TARGETS

Matt Bryant ($4,800 FD)

300M TARGETS

Julio Jones ($9,300 FD; $9,300 DK)

Davonta Freeman ($7,200 FD; $5,200 DK)

 

KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI

Vegas – O/U – 44; Cincinnati – 3.5

KANSAS CITY

2014 wDef – 20^th  Pass D – 13^th , Run D – 26^th

2014 wOff – 11^th Pass O – 14^th, Run O – 5^th

When the game was actually on the line Monday night, the Chiefs offense, in particular the passing game, was complete chaos. Jamaal Charles is always a threat to break a long touchdown run, especially against a suspect Bengals run defense, but the rest of this offense should be avoided until the start playing some better football.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Jamaal Charles ($8,700 FD; $7,600 DK)

CINCINNATI

2014 wDef – 17^th Pass D – 7^th, Run D – 28^th

2014 wOff – 21^st Pass O – 21^st, Run O – 10^th

The Chiefs are allowing 287 passing yards per game and have seen opposing offenses throw for 10 touchdowns. Andy Dalton has been hot this season and the Bengals passing game is really clicking. Dalton and his primary receiver A.J. Green are good options but game flow may limit their upside. Tyler Eifert was held without a catch last week after two fantastic games to open the season. Eifert is a nice price and may see suppressed ownership percentages.

The running game is another matter and Jeremy Hill has struggled this season after a breakout rookie campaign. He’s currently splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, who is more heavily involved in the passing game. I’m not particularly interested in either back, but if I had to choose one it would be Bernard.

50M TARGETS

Mike Nugent ($4,700 FD)

300M TARGETS

Andy Dalton ($7,600 FD; $5,900 DK)

A.J. Green ($8,400 FD; $7,600 DK)

Tyler Eifert ($5,700 FD; $4,600 DK)

 

CLEVELAND @ SAN DIEGO

Vegas – O/U – 44.5; San Diego – 8

CLEVELAND

2014 wDef – 8^th Pass D – 2^nd , Run D – 31^st

2014 wOff – 28^th Pass O – 22^nd, Run O – 26^th

Cleveland, which has the least offensive skill position talent in the NFL, travels to San Diego for a game Vegas expects them to score about 18 points. I believe Vegas is being overly generous.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

SAN DIEGO

2014 wDef – 21^th Pass D – 25^th, Run D – 15^th

2014 wOff – 10^th Pass O – 7^th, Run O – 25^th

While the Chargers passing game has been the star of the show so far this season, game flow and the Cleveland defense indicate a different result this Sunday. Rookie Melvin Gordon had his best game of the season last week and faces a Browns Defense that was ripped apart by Latavius Murray last week. As heavy home favorites this game sets up nicely for Gordon, who’s still flying under a lot of people’s’ radars.

The Chargers are currently 4th in the NFL in passing yards, so I believe it would be a mistake to completely ignore them. #1 WR Keenan Allen is averaging over 100 receiving yards a game, but draws the coverage of Joe Hayden and his targets have wildly inconsistent from week to week. He’s a GPP only play for me. Slot receiver Steve Johnson is a sneaky tournament play against a Browns team that has trouble covering the slot.

50M TARGETS

Melvin Gordon ($6,800 FD; $4,900 DK)

300M TARGETS

Keenan Allen ($7,700 FD; $7,000 DK)

Steve Johnson ($5,800 FD; $4,400 DK)

 

GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO

Vegas – O/U – 48; Green Bay – 9

GREEN BAY

2014 wDef – 18^th  Pass D – 11^th , Run D – 24^th

2014 wOff – 1^st Pass O – 2^nd, Run O – 6^th

Green Bay looked like a juggernaut last week and the 49ers looked like a dumpster fire. Herein lies the problem. The very real possibility exists for such a blowout that Aaron Rodgers (or Scott Tolzien) spends the entire 4th quarter handing off to back up running backs. Virtually all of the Packers offensive are in play, but due to their prices and the blowout potential, are GPP only.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Aaron Rodgers ($9,2000 FD; $7,900 DK)

Eddie Lacy ($7,800 FD; $6,900 DK)

Randall Cobb ($8,200 FD; $7,400 DK)

James Jones ($6,000 FD; $5,300 DK)

SAN FRANCISCO

2014 wDef – 5^th Pass D – 4^th, Run D – 10^th

2014 wOff –15^th Pass O – 21^st, Run O – 8^th

If any 49ers players are on your fantasy radar, it’s broken and in need of repair.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

 

St LOUIS @ ARIZONA

Vegas – O/U – 42; Arizona – 7

St LOUIS

2014 wDef – 22^nd.  Pass D – 24^th, Run D – 11^th

2014 wOff – 6^th Pass O – 20^th, Run O – 4^th

The StLouis offense has struggled badly this year and failed to take advantage of a leaky Pittsburgh secondary last week. This Sunday they square off against a very good Cardinals defense. Vegas has the Rams point total at 17. There’s nothing of any fantasy interest here.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

ARIZONA

2014 wDef – 14^th Pass D – 14^th, Run D – 6^th

2014 wOff – 24^th Pass O – 19^th, Run O – 30^th

I’ve been on the Carson Palmer bandwagon the last three weeks, but this is where I get off. With his price tag inflating, he faces a fairly tough Rams defense that held the Steelers in check last week. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the hottest receivers in the NFL and has emerged as Palmer’s favorite target. Even though his salary has increased as well, he’s worth a look in tournaments.

The running game continues to be unsettled with any of three running backs capable of having a nice game or of being completely shut down. Against a good Rams front four, this is a situation I’ll be avoiding.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400 FD; $6,500 DK)

 

MINNESOTA @ DENVER

Vegas – O/U – 43; Denver – 6.5

MINNESOTA

2014 wDef – 23^rd Pass D – 19^th , Run D – 25^th

2014 wOff – 16^th Pass O – 29^th, Run O – 4^th

Minnesota has been successful running the ball this season, but now face a Broncos team giving up only 82.7 yards per game on the ground. The Vikings will probably have to pass, but Denver is #1 in the league in passing yards allowed while the Vikings are last passing the ball. I predict a very difficult game for the Vikings.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

DENVER

2014 wDef – 3^rd Pass D – 5^th, Run D – 3^rd

2014 wOff – 6^th Pass O – 3^rd, Run O – 7^th

Denver seems to have righted the ship offensively, at least in the passing game and faces a middle of the pack Vikings defense. The Broncos probably won’t have to score a ton of points to win this game and their players are very highly priced, so I’m basically going to fade this game. There are much better options else where at similar prices.

The running game has been stuck in neutral all season and now Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson are now sharing carries. Even though this is a very favorable match up, I’m going to have to see some improvement before I jump on this bandwagon.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Broncos Defense ($4,700 FD; $3,300 DK)

 

DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS

Vegas – O/U – 46.5; New Orleans – 4

DALLAS

2014 wDef – 19^th Pass D – 19^th, Run D – 22^nd

2014 wOff –4^th Pass O – 4^th, Run O – 3^rd

With their dominant offensive line, Dallas can still run the ball, but we have no real idea which backs will be producing from week to week. The injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant leave the team woefully low on talent even in a plus match up against New Orleans. There are much better values at similar prices in other games.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

NEW ORLEANS

2014 wDef – 28^th Pass D – 27^th , Run D – 32^nd

2014 wOff – 9^th Pass O – 9^th, Run O – 9^th

Game flow has generally worked against the Saints running game this season, but Mark Ingram is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Game flow should work in his favor, but Dallas had been stout against the run before getting ripped last week. There are a lot of “ifs” here, which leaves Ingram a 300M target.

The passing game has fared better for the Saints this season. Drew Brees missed last week with a shoulder injury and while he should play here, enough doubt exists about the health of his throwing arm for me to fade the situation completely.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

Mark Ingram ($8,100 FD; $6,000 DK)

Zack Hocker ($4,500 FD)

 

DETROIT @ SEATTLE

Vegas – O/U – 42.5; Seattle – 10

DETROIT

2014 wDef – 7^th Pass D – 8^th , Run D – 1^st

2014 wOff – 17^th Pass O – 17^th, Run O – 29^th

Seattle’s defense is much better at home and they’re coming off of a shutout. Vegas expects the Lions to score 16 points in this game. Avoid.

50M TARGETS

None

300M TARGETS

None

SEATTLE

2014 wDef – 1st  Pass D – 3^rd , Run D – 2^nd

2014 wOff – 5^th Pass O – 10^th, Run O – 1^st

Marshawn Lynch sat out the second half last week and is day-to-day after having an MRI. This game is on Monday night, so we probably won’t have clarification until after line up lock. Unless Lynch is ruled out early, and Thomas Rawls and Fred Jackson become value, this is something to avoid.

Predicting Russell Wilson‘s targets has been difficult this season. As such, in a game where their defense should dominate, I’m not inclined to play guessing games. With the running back situation in flux though, Wilson himself is a decent play.

50M TARGETS

Seahawks Defense ($5,300 FD; $3,700 DK)

300M TARGETS

Russell Wilson ($8,200 FD; $7,100 DK)

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