NFL DFS Yahoo Week 13

We are now in week 13 of the 2018 season. After the Triple Thanksgiving Thursday and the end of bye weeks, we are back to full force. On this Yahoo Sunday slate, we have access to 28 teams including some fantasy favorites. I will now present my favorite values in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) on Yahoo this week.

Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in the main slate of Yahoo contests.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as December rolls along, we may even see some snow. There are four teams that play Home and Dome in week 10:

Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens

Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints (Thursday Night)

Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Rams

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

Quarterback

Jared Goff LAR, $37 @ DET

After a 2 week absence, the Yahoo Sunday slate welcomes back the Chiefs and the Rams. They were, unfortunately, unavailable for the Monday night game that featured a combined 105 points and an abundance of fantasy production. However, one prominent player produced a season-low 10.9, in a game where he appeared to suffer an injury. It was only the second time in 2018 that Todd Gurley failed to score at least 20 fantasy points. The real concern is the state of his health going forward. In the event that the Rams limit Gurley’s snap count, look for the passing game to pick up extra work. That is one of the reasons why I am going with Jared Goff in week 13. The Rams have the 2nd highest implied total of the week with 32.5 points. Another prominent reason is the matchup. The Lions have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to QBs in 2018. That number alone does not do justice to how bad Detroit is at stopping the pass as their opponents have thrown the 2nd fewest pass attempts against them. Furthermore, this game will be played indoors, therefore, the conditions should be ideal for Goff and the aerial attack.

Baker Mayfield CLE, $24 @ HOU

In another Road and Dome game, the Browns visit Houston. Cleveland is currently on a 2-game winning streak and Baker Mayfield has performed efficiently during that stretch. With an average of only 23 pass attempts during those 2 games, Mayfield produced 22.64 and 25.92 against the Falcons and the Bengals respectively. In week 13, he does face a tough task going against a Texans defense that is tied for 6th in the NFL with 34 sacks. This presents a risk for Mayfield’s fantasy value, but at only $24, that risk is inherent in the price. In order to find the same type of upside that Mayfield presents, we would probably need to pay up to Kirk Cousins at $29. Mayfield’s price allows for the ability to pay up for several other top-tier players at different positions.

 

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey CAR, $32 @ TB

My favorite RB play this week is Christian McCaffrey. The Buccaneers defense has been generous to all RBs, as they have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to the position in 0.5 PPR (point per reception) settings. McCaffrey’s pass-catching skill set should serve him well in week 13 as only four teams have given up more receiving TDs to RBs than Tampa Bay. The Panthers-Bucs game has the third highest combined over-under of the week at 54 points. Carolina is projected by Vegas to score 28.5 of those 54 points, leaving them behind only the Chiefs and the Rams in week 13 implied totals. Considering all of these factors, McCaffrey has a great chance of finding the end zone, something that he has been doing well of late. In his last 5 games, Mccaffrey has scored 9 TDs.

Aaron Jones GB, $26 vs ARI

Speaking of hot streaks, in the last 5 games, Aaron Jones has received an expanded workload which has allowed him to put up solid fantasy numbers. It is not quite McCaffrey’s pace, but Jones has 6 TDs over that stretch. He has a great matchup in week 13 going up against the Cardinals. This season, Arizona has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. After the extreme high-end RBs, Jones is the next best bet to produce. The Packers passing game has struggled at times with the new receivers and lack of practice time for Aaron Rodgers. Even so, they still have an implied total of 28.5 points, tied for the third highest on the Sunday slate. With such a vulnerable run-defense on tap, Green Bay may find that a heavy dose of Jones is the best manner to approach week 13.

Tarik Cohen CHI, $19 @ NYG

Tarik Cohen has a great matchup on tap in week 13. The Giants have been vulnerable to RBs, especially of late. Over the last 4 weeks, they have allowed an RB to gain at least 88 rushing yards and score a TD. Even if Cohen does not reach those numbers on the ground, he still offers a solid floor with his receiving ability. With QB Mitch Trubisky expected to miss another week, look for Chase Daniel to use Cohen as a passing option often. Last week, Cohen tied Taylor Gabriel for the team lead in receptions with 7. At only $19, it is a perfect price to pick up a lead- back who sometimes doubles as his team’s #1 receiving target.

 

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins HOU, $35 vs CLE

When looking at the top end of WR prices in week 13, only one player has a Home and Dome game. DeAndre Hopkins stands out because the Browns’ opponents have targeted WR’s the second most amount of times in 2018 for the entire NFL. Something will have to give as the Texans have thrown 25 or fewer pass attempts in 6 straight games. Still, Houston has been able to exploit teams through the air even on a low-volume of pass attempts. QB Deshaun Watson threw 5 TDs on only 20 attempts against the Dolphins, a team allowing fewer fantasy points per game to WRs than the Browns are. While we can expect Hopkins to be covered often by rookie CB Denzel Ward, he has proven time and again that even the best corners have a hard time slowing him down. Just this season, Hopkins has scored TDs when covered by the likes of Tre’Davious White, Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard and Chris Harris. Hopkins offers an interesting cross-team stack along with Baker Mayfield.

Brandin Cooks – Robert Woods LAR, $26 @ DET

I mentioned that Jared Goff is a great play for the QB position. That leaves to reason that his top two targets would be equally viable. However, unlike their QB who experienced a slight increase in price, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are both cheaper than they were during the Monday Night shootout against the Chiefs. The biggest difficulty with the Rams WRs is deciding which one to select. They are both the same price ($26) are both pretty close in fantasy points per game (Cooks 15.4; Woods 14.1). In all likelihood, Cooks will be covered by Darius Slay, which is why I would prefer to play Woods. However, it is possible to play them in the same DFS lineup and have success. They have a great matchup as the Lions have allowed the 15th most fantasy points to WRs (0.5 PPR) while opposing offenses have targeted the position against Detroit less than they have for any other team. That type of efficiency means that neither Cooks nor Woods would need an abundance of targets in order to produce proficiently.

Larry Fitzgerald ARI, $24 @ GB

In week 13, Larry Fitzgerald takes on an injury-riddled secondary in Green Bay. The Packers are tied for the 2nd most fantasy points allowed to WRs in 0.5 PPR settings. Fitzgerald has a great chance to find the end zone as he has scored 5 TDs during the last 5 games. There may be a certain level of unsustainability in Fitzgerald’s production as he has scored 3 TDs on his last 6 targets. Even so, I believe that he can keep that pace going against the Packers. Once again, the Cardinals are double-digit underdogs according to Vegas. While Arizona will want to give David Johnson as much of a workload as he can handle, there may be no choice but to air it out in order to keep the game close.

T.Y. Hilton IND, $16 @ JAX

There are times in Yahoo’s DFS format that prices are not adjusted accordingly and other instances where a player’s cost changes too dramatically. In week 13, T.Y. Hilton is an example of the latter. The Jaguars defense entered 2018 with the reputation of being arguably the best unit in the league. However, key injuries and an underperforming offense have left the Jacksonville defense in some difficult spots that they have not been able to get out of. They are more vulnerable this year to allowing fantasy players to produce. This week, they face Hilton who carries a $16 price tag, his least expensive amount of the season. A few weeks ago, Hilton put up 77 receiving yards against the Jaguars, which was more than he had in either of the matchups last year. Now with Jack Doyle out for the season, Hilton should see ample opportunity to pay off on his deflated cost.

 

Tight End

Travis Kelce KC, $30 @OAK

There is a Chiefs player ranked as the most expensive or second most expensive at every position in week 13. While all of them are viable options for Yahoo DFS lineups, I prefer to select the player who is far and away the best at his position. As the top TE on the slate in both fantasy points per game (15.2) and price ($30), Travis Kelce is that player. He offers a solid floor as he has only scored single-digit fantasy points three times in 2018. What is incredibly enticing is the matchup against the Raiders. Oakland is vulnerable to every position but especially to TEs. They have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to TEs in 0.5 PPR formats. This is incredible considering that opposing offenses have targeted TEs 59 times (the 4th fewest in the NFL). If the Chiefs do match or beat their 34.75 implied total, Kelce will be involved and he will not need too many targets in order to produce.

Gerald Everett LAR, $11 @ DET

The other TE that I want to target also has an elevated implied total. After the Chiefs, the Rams have the second biggest Vegas projection with 32.5 points. I like to look for the TD upside and the Rams should have ample opportunities to score against the Lions. The Detroit defense is similar to that of the Raiders, mostly in terms of opposing offensive efficiency. Only 7 teams have allowed more TDs to TEs than the Lions, even though their opponents have targeted the position 62 times (7th fewest in the league). All of that to say, that I like Gerald Everett this week. While there is a concern that Tyler Higbee may garner red-zone looks, it is Everett who has scored 3 TDs over the last 2 weeks. I have mentioned several Rams players so far in this article, and Everett’s $11 price tag offers an inexpensive way to buy into this explosive offense.

 

Flex RB

Frank Gore MIA, $16 vs BUF

Another RB that is all about the matchup. In week 13 the Dolphins take on the Bills, who have allowed 15 TDs to RBs. Only 3 teams in the NFL have allowed more scores to the position in 2018. The biggest concern for Frank Gore may be the presence of his teammate Kenyan Drake. However, Gore has out torched Drake in 4 of the last 5 weeks. Working in Gore’s favor is the fact that Drake aggravated a shoulder injury last week. If he is not 100%, Miami may decide to attack Buffalo with a heavy dose of Gore. His running style seems suited to exploit this matchup.

T.J. Yeldon JAX, $13 vs IND

Normally, when speaking of Leonard Fournette‘s absence, we are referring to an injury. For week 13, however, he has been suspended for throwing punches during week 12’s loss. Some will favor going with Carlos Hyde in DFS, and I cannot blame them. I actually believe that T.J. Yeldon is in line for the more productive fantasy day. Even though the Colts are middle of the pack at allowing fantasy points to RB (15th) they have surrendered the 2nd most receptions and 4th most receiving yards to the position. Yeldon seems perfectly situated in this scenario as he currently leads the Jaguars in targets and receiving TDs. Hyde is certainly a capable pass-catcher, but Jacksonville has not used him in that way. In his 4 games with the team, Hyde has not caught a single pass, paving the way for Yeldon to dominate the receiving work out of the backfield.

Spencer Ware KC, $11 @ OAK

The Chiefs offense has been all about breaking records in 2018. In week 13, they are setting one more with the highest implied total on the season for a Sunday slate game. The 34.75 projected points are second only in 2018 to the Saints’ 36.25 from last Thursday night. There is certainly a strong temptation to pay up and select QB Patrick Mahomes ($40) or WR Tyreek Hill ($38). However, I am going with a cheaper teammate. Considering that the Raiders have given up the 5th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats, the starting RB may be the best choice as far as Kansas City players are concerned. With the news that Spencer Ware is starting came so late in the week, Yahoo did not adjust his price. $11 for the lead-back on an explosive offense against a vulnerable defense should make Ware a practical lock in lineups.

Flex WR

David Moore SEA, $13 vs SF

The Seahawks have an implied total of 28 points, which is the 5th highest on the Sunday slate. A big factor in that projection is the 49ers defense. Among other weaknesses, they have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR formats. There is always the risk that Seattle will get an early lead and run the ball as much as possible. In order to mitigate that risk a slight bit, I want to invest a smaller amount of money but still get a high upside player. The perfect mix on the Seahawks is David Moore. While he has fewer TDs than his teammate Tyler Lockett (5 to 8), Moore comes in at $10 cheaper. That makes him a great value play in week 13.

 

Defense

Tennessee Titans $14 vs NYJ

For fantasy defenses, there are enticing options for $20 at top of the price list. However, my favorite selection is the Titans defense with a cost of $14. They have a great matchup on tap, going up against a Jets team with some uncertainty at QB. Both Sam Darnold and Josh McCown were limited during the week 13 practices and at this point, it is unclear who will be starting. Either way, both players are prone to turnovers as the Jets have thrown the 2nd most INTs (17) as a team in 2018. For Tennessee, the time is now to win games in order to make the playoffs. They will probably bring their A-game in order to soar past the Jets.

Atlanta Falcons $10 vs BAL

Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards have revitalized the Ravens rushing attack. Since Baltimore’s bye week, those two have started for the team and have been producing. Granted, this has come against the Bengals and the Raiders who managed to score 21 and 17 points respectively against the Ravens. Neither offense is running a full stream considering that they are missing key week 1 starters on offense. The Falcons, on the other hand, are an explosive unit who are capable of putting up 30+ points, even if they have struggled in the last few games. If they force Jackson to throw a lot, then he may make some mistakes. On 44 pass attempts during his two starts combined, Jackson threw 3 INTs. At $10, there is no other defense that offers Atlanta’s upside for so little a cost.

Thank you for reading. For those that are superstitious, best of luck on this lucky week 13. For any comments or questions about DFS and fantasy football, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks. Remember to check out all of the great content on Going for 2.

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