NFL DFS Yahoo Week 16

Sweet 16 here we are! The NFL regular season has almost reached its conclusion. We have lost several star players to injuries but others have stepped up in their place. In Yahoo’s daily fantasy sports (DFS) format has a lot of valuable players available to be selected. In this article, I will go through what I consider to be the best options.

Note: The Saturday and Monday night games are not included in the main slate of Yahoo contests.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as December rolls along, we may even see some snow. There are five teams that play Home and Dome in week 16:

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Indianapolis Colts vs New York Giants

New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield CLE, $30 vs CIN

The Browns are clinging on to slim playoff hopes, meaning that they should give it their all in week 16. Luckily for them, the Bengals defense can be exploited in many ways. That all begins with the signal caller as Cincinnati has given up the most fantasy points to QBs in 2018. Baker Mayfield is on a bit of a cold streak with back-to-back sub-14 point performances. However, the last time that he played the Bengals, Mayfield scored 25.92 fantasy points, a season-high for him. He should be in a position to be among the top QB performers in week 16 and thus an excellent play at his $30 price tag.

Mitch Trubisky CHI, $28 @ SF

Like Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky has had some disappointing weeks recently. In the last 5 games, Trubisky has had 2 games where he scored single-digit fantasy points. Last week, however, he scored 19 points against a Green Bay team that is above average at preventing production to QBs. An upcoming matchup with the 49ers may be one of the best things for Trubisky to continue this momentum. San Francisco has given up the 10 most fantasy points to QBs this season. Even though he hasn’t run a lot recently, Trubisky is certainly capable of gaining valuable rushing production which can add to his ceiling.

 

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott DAL, $36 vs TB

Because Todd Gurley is dealing with a knee injury, his status for week 16 is uncertain. That is a shame since he has such a great matchup. Because we cannot trust him this week, I want to select another elite RB with an equally easy opponent. Coming off a game where they were shut out completely, the Cowboys will want to perform strongly in front of their home crowd. The best way to establish something would be to use their best weapon, a.k.a. Ezekiel Elliott early and often. The Cowboys have an implied total of 27.75 points which is the 6th highest in week 16. Elliott should find a lot of room against the Buccaneers since they have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. Even if Tampa Bay gets a big lead, Elliott will not be left out of the game script as he has caught 72 passes this year.

Nick Chubb CLE, $32 vs CIN

Arguably an even better matchup for RBs than Tampa Bay are the Bengals. They have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR settings. As I mentioned when speaking about Mayfield, Cincinnati’s defense is exploitable at every level. The Browns have an implied total of 27.25 points, which is the 7th highest in week 16. With that type of potential game script, Nick Chubb will be in line for a large workload against a vulnerable defense. In order to maximize the potential output of this matchup, Chubb can be stacked with Mayfield.

Marlon Mack IND, $25 vs NYG

Last week, Marlon Mack had a difficult matchup against the Cowboys. The Dallas defense has given up the 9th fewest fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. Yet, Mack ran for 139 yards and 2 TDs, totaling in 25.4 fantasy points. The return of center Ryan Kelly was a factor as the offense operates a lot better when he is in the lineup. In week 16, Mack has a much easier matchup. The Giants have given up the 8th most fantasy points to the position. Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber produced his only 100-yard game of 2018 when facing the Giants. Considering the constant production that the Giants have allowed, and how well Mack played against a tough opponent like the Cowboys, I consider him a strong value at $25.

 

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown PIT, $32 @ NO

The Steelers-Saints game has the second highest combined over-under in week 16 at 53 points. Being a game played in a dome, I expect both passing offenses to produce at their full potential. This is especially true considering that both teams have had disappointing performances recently. Antonio Brown has been held under 13 fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 weeks, but a matchup against the Saints may be exactly what he needs to get back on track. This season, New Orleans has given up the most fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR settings. In a likely shootout, I want as many high-end pieces of these passing offenses as possible.

Michael Thomas NO, $29 vs PIT

Now let’s look at the other side of that matchup. In a Home and Dome game, I trust Michael Thomas to produce numbers worthy of his $29 price tag. During contests in New Orleans this year, Thomas has averaged 20.07 fantasy points per game. This is a big difference from the 13.1 fantasy points per game that he is averaging on the road in 2018. Other than the home/road splits, there is another major factor that influences my decision to select Thomas. Not only does this game have a high combined over-under, but the Saints also have the 2nd highest implied total of the week, with 29 points. In that type of game, a player like Thomas, who has 30 targets over the last 3 weeks, has the potential to be the best WR.

Brandin Cooks LAR, $23 @ ARI

I mentioned that the Saints have the 2nd-highest implied total this week. The distinction of the of the best-projected total as bestowed by Vegas belongs to the Rams with a 30.25 point implied total. In most weeks this season, teams have run a lot against the Cardinals. While that would normally mean a heavy dose of Todd Gurley in the stat sheet, unfortunately, his status for week 16 is in question. Even if he does suit up, it is uncertain how many snaps he will play. What we do know is that after 2 straight losses, the Rams could be in danger of losing their first-round playoff bye. Even against an opponent that is easily exploited on the ground, I can definitely see this becoming a get right game for Jared Goff and his receivers. This week, Brandin Cooks is priced at $23, the lowest it has been since September. I think that this is the perfect week to buy-low on him. This is a dome game, so the passing attack will not be negatively affected by weather. Therefore, I expect a healthy amount of production for all the Rams receivers but especially Cooks. As a strong deep-threat, he does not need many receptions in order to produce at a value based on his price.

Julian Edelman NE, $20 vs BUF

Much like Arizona, the Bills have been less than friendly to WR production. Both teams are in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to WRs in 0.5 PPR settings. That being said, Julian Edelman has had success against the Bills, even as recently as this season. Back in week 8, Edelman produced a season-best 104 receiving yards in Buffalo. There is a strong chance that the Patriots will approach this game with a run-heavy strategy. However, coming off of 2-straight losses, New England is no longer in a position to get a first-round playoff bye. In order to regain that status, the Patriots will need to pull out all of the stops in order to ensure a victory. That could mean a lot more pass attempts in direction of Tom Brady‘s favorite target: Edelman.

 

Tight End

Eric Ebron IND, $20 vs NYG

It is very difficult to find a consistent performer at the TE position. Even Travis Kelce put up a week with 1.1 points early in the season. When looking for TEs, I want the TD upside either due to a great matchup or because they play on a high-scoring offense. For Eric Ebron, he certainly falls into the latter category. In a Home and Dome game, the Colts have a 28.5 point implied total. As I mentioned before, there is a chance that Marlon Mack repeats last week’s performance, which would limit the overall passing volume in Indianapolis. However, the Colts are in the middle of a playoff fight and will not want to take any chances. The Giants are about middle of the pack at defending TEs, but they have allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR formats. If Janoris Jenkins is covering T.Y. Hilton, then Ebron should find the room to operate at a highly productive level.

David Njoku CLE, $14 vs CIN

Like I wrote during Ebron’s section of this article, I want to target TEs who are on teams projected to score a lot of points and thus, have a better chance of getting into the end zone. After selecting several Browns players, you have seen that I mentioned the team’s 27.25 point implied total before. David Njoku offers a great opportunity for fantasy points but at a lower cost. On the teams that have higher implied totals then Cleveland, their TEs are either far more expensive then Njoku’s $14 price tag, or they are not the clear-cut top player. The matchup is also prime for Njoku since, this season, the Bengals have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TEs in 0.5 PPR formats. For those who truly believe that the Browns are about to dominate Cincinnati, then a QB-RB-TE stack with Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb and Njoku could be a winning combination. If that seems too ambitious for you, then a simple Clevlenad stack of QB-TE may pay off.

 

Flex RB

Chris Carson SEA, $21 vs KC

Even with the presence of two other significant RBs in the Seahawks backfield, Chris Carson has still gotten a healthy workload. He managed exactly 22 carries two weeks in a row. With Rashaad Penny already ruled out for week 16, Carson should see at least that amount once again. While Penny’s absence in week 15 did not affect Carson’s rushing attempts, it certainly gave him more of a chance to participate in the passing game. Carson saw a season-high 6 targets last week and managed to catch all of them. That type of involvement will come in handy against the Chiefs as only 3 teams have allowed more receptions to RBs than they have this season. Overall, Carson should be able to produce against the worst ranked defense for fantasy RBs (in 0.5 PPR formats). Since Seattle has a 26 point implied total, Carson should see many opportunities to score.

Sony Michel NE, $20 vs BUF

A backfield that at one point this year was hurting for depth, is now suddenly crowded. Since both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel returned from injury James White has seen his snap count diminish. At one point, White was on the field for 80.3% of the Patriots offensive snaps. Last week, he was barely over half of that snap percentage at 41.9%, but that was still more than both Michel (35.5%) and Burkhead (25.8%). Even with that split in playing time, over the last 3 weeks (since Burkhead returned) Michel has carried the ball 36 times. That is significantly more rushing attempts than either Burkhead (15) or White (12) received. In week 16, New England hosts the Bills, a team that has given up the 10th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR settings. In order to ensure the smoothest path to victory, I assume that the Patriots will run early and often, which should give Michel ample opportunities to produce.

Tevin Coleman ATL, $14 @ CAR

Unlike the Patriots current backfield situation, the Falcons’ is pretty barren. Only Tevin Coleman remains standing after rookie Ito Smith was placed on injured reserve. It is very difficult to find a workhorse RB for so cheap and that is what Coleman will presumably be for the next 2 weeks. Apparently, $14 the key price for newly installed workhorse RBs, as Jamaal Williams is listed at that same price. Now that his Packers teammate, Aaron Jones, is on injured reserve, Williams should see most of the backfield work in week 16. The reason that I favor Coleman is that he ran for 107 on 16 carries earlier in the year against his week 16 opponent, the Panthers. It is unknown what Williams will do against the Jets and I prefer to act upon what we do know.

Flex WR

Alshon Jeffery PHI, $17 vs HOU

There is a lot of risk associated with Alshon Jeffery in week 16. First, he has not yet practiced this week due to an illness. As long as it is not too serious, Jeffery should be fine to suit up on Sunday. Perhaps the more pressing issue is the Texans pass-rush. If they can disrupt Nick Foles, he may not be able to connect with Jeffery, apparently his favorite target. Last week, Foles threw 8 passes at Jeffery which all resulted in completions. That was the second game in a row where Foles threw 8 targets towards Jeffery. The previous time that they were on the field together was Super Bowl LII. In such an important situation, Foles looks towards Jeffery and that should continue in week 16. That type of volume is difficult to replicate at $17.

 

Defense

Jacksonville Jaguars $11 @ MIA

With several high-priced players throughout this article, I think the best way to get as many into your lineups as possible is to pay all the way down for defense. At $11 we find the Jaguars. My the might have fallen. Yes, Jacksonville has struggled all year, but the defense has still been able to get to opposing QBs. I selected them in last week’s Yahoo DFS article and they came through with double-digit fantasy points. In week 16 they take on the Dolphins, who have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to defenses. The 45 sacks that the Miami offensive line has given up is 6th most in the NFL. That is only 7 sacks less than have been allowed by…

Philadelphia Eagles $10 vs HOU

… the Houston Texans. The Eagles are the perfect team to take advantage of that situation. Last week they played arguably the best offense in the league, the Rams. In that game, Philadelphia only allowed 23 points and produced 3 turnovers. The defensive-line pressure was a big factor as they even managed 2 sacks against the Rams excellent offensive-line. That extended the Eagles’ streak of games with multiple sacks to four. There is a very good chance that it will be five in a row against that Houston offensive-line. While there is a risk that the Texans will put up a lot of points, that is a risk I am willing to take when paying the minimum price.

Thank you for reading. I hope that it will be a sweet week 16 for you in DFS. In order to ensure maximum preparation, be sure to check out Going for 2 for all sorts of DFS content. For any comments or questions about this article, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks.

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