It seems that the NFL regular season just began. Yet, here we are in week 17 and the end is near. We get one last chance to play NFL DFS on all platforms, including Yahoo. In this article, I have selected the players that I would build my DFS lineups around.
Scoring settings
1 point for 25 passing yards 1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards
0.5 points for a reception
4 points for passing touchdown 6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns
-1 point for an interception -2 points for a fumble lost
Lineup requirements
1 QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1Flex(R/W/T) 1 DEF $200 budget
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as December rolls along, we may even see some snow. There are three teams that play Home and Dome in week 17:
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
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While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.
For this week, in particular, I am going to look mostly at teams with something to play for. That is because teams who have secured their first-round byes (i.e. the Saints) will most likely rest or limit starters. Likewise, teams that have long been eliminated may hold out players in order to protect them for 2019’s offseason program.
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger PIT, $39 vs CIN
One team with a playoff berth on the line are the Steelers. Vegas expects them to come out and play as they have the 2nd highest implied total of the week with 29.75 points. Another factor for that projection is their opponent. The Bengals are in the top 3 of fantasy points allowed in most positions. That includes the most points allowed to QBs in 2018. Regardless of where the production is coming from, Ben Roethlisberger‘s arm should be involved. Yes, there is a risk that Pittsburgh could just run through Cincinnati and beat them on the ground. However, considering that the Steelers will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, I do not believe that they will risk it. Especially early, they will probably trust Roethlisberger’s connection with his receivers to establish an early. Yes, he is expensive, but I think that he is well worth it.
Kirk Cousins MIN, $25 vs CHI
On the other hand, perhaps a low-cost investment at QB will be the preferred route by some DFS players. In that case, Kirk Cousins offers a great opportunity. $25 represents his cheapest Yahoo price from 2018, a price that has dropped steadily since a 27.38-point performance against the Packers. While the matchup against the Bears may appear to be a negative, the truth is that they are such a good defense against the run that the Vikings will have no choice but to air it out in order to win and secure their playoff spot. Last time that they played Chicago, Cousins had 18.98 fantasy points. That is not bad considering that the game was outdoors during a late-November game in Chicago. Now in a home and dome game for week 16, Cousins should have an even easier time throwing against the Bears.
Running Back
Chris Carson SEA, $25 vs ARI
This is perhaps my biggest risk-reward pick of the article. Unlike most of the players listed, Chris Carson is on a team with not much to play for. The Seahawks have clinched the playoff but cannot win their division title. A victory in week 17 would simply ensure that they are the 5th seed in the NFC. Still, Carson has a great opportunity against the Cardinals team that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR (point per reception) formats. Even if Seattle benches him after halftime, Carson should get plenty of opportunities to produce in the first half. Arizona has allowed the most rushing TDs (18) to RBs this season. With an average of 25 touches per game over the last 3 weeks, Carson has great odds to find the end zone.
Damien Williams KC, $19 vs OAK
The Chiefs have the highest implied total of the week with 32.75 points. In order to beat the Raiders, they will probably employ a heavy dose of Damien Williams, even if Spencer Ware is active. When Ware started week 15, Williams still managed to score 2 TDs. Williams has found the end zone 5 times in the last 3 games, and he will likely extend that number in week 17. Oakland has given up the 9th most fantasy points to RBs in 0.5 PPR settings.
Lamar Miller HOU, $19 vs JAX
What the Texans showed us last time that they played the Jaguars was that the way to beat them was by running the football. In their 20-7 victory earlier this season, Lamar Miller turned a season-high 22 carries into 100 yards and 1 TD. The big question is whether or not Miller will play in week 17 after sitting out the previous contest. After getting in a limited session Wednesday, Miller practiced in full on Thursday, suggesting that he will be good to go on Sunday. Yes, DOnta Foreman made his 2018 debut last week, but he was ineffective running the football in his first game action in a year. Alfred Blue is also still around, but Miller is Houston’s best option in the backfield. The Texans need a victory in order to clinch the AFC South division crown and if he is healthy, they will probably roll out Miller early and often.
Wide Receiver
JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT, $28 vs CIN
With all of the uncertainty at RB for the Steelers, I prefer to invest into their passing attack this week. While conventional wisdom would say select Antonio Brown, there does appear to be some concern regarding an apparent knee injury. With Pittsburgh’s season on the line, I expect JuJu Smith-Schuster to have yet another double-digit target game which has occurred in over half of his games this season. A high-flying Pittsburgh team should be too much to handle for the Bengals secondary.
Robert Woods LAR, $26 vs SF
Speaking of high-powered offenses, the Rams have the 3rd highest implied total of week 17 at 29.5 points. Also, like the Steelers, the Rams have questions as to will be their starting RB. C.J. Anderson performed very well last week by scoring 22.7 fantasy points. Even so, Robert Woods still had a massive day by producing 89 yards and 1 TD on 6 catches. With a first-round bye to be claimed with a victory, the Rams will not take any chances this week. They are about to go up against the 49ers who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR. I expect the Rams (similarly to the Steelers) to air-it-out early on in week 17 with something significant as a first-round bye on the line.
Keenan Allen LAC, $25 @ DEN
Yet another team with a lot to play for are the Chargers. A victory by them, coupled with a Chiefs’ loss would give the Chargers one of the top two seeds in the AFC. If not, they will be the fifth seed and forced to play on the road in the first round of the playoffs. Needless to say, the Chargers should be going guns blazing and target Keenan Allen heavily. Coming off a hip injury suffered the previous game, Allen received 8 targets in week 16. Now with more time to heal up, I fully expect an even larger target share for him in week 17. Being primarily a slot receiver, Allen would have been covered by Chris Harris, if not for his season-ending injury. Even with Harris active the last time these two teams played, Allen caught 8 passes for 89 yards and a TD. Imagine what he could do with the Broncos best DB absent.
Stefon Diggs MIN, $24 vs CHI
One of my favorite stacks this week is Kirk Cousins with WR Stefon Diggs. As I mentioned before, the Vikings have everything to play for. The main concern for Diggs is that Minnesota has been running the football a lot since the recent change of offensive coordinators. However, they may not be able to stick to that plan in week 17. The Bears have given up the fewest points to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. Last time that he played Chicago, Dalvin Cook produced 12 rushing yards on 9 carries. While I expect better of him this week, it will still probably not enough to get me, or the Vikings, away from Diggs.
Tight End
Travis Kelce KC, $31 vs OAK
Last time that the Chiefs played the Raiders, Tyreek Hill was held to a season-low 13 yards and 5.5 fantasy points. Oakland has been successful at limiting top receivers all year. Against TEs, however, they have been far more vulnerable. They have allowed the 5th points to the position in 0.5 PPR formats. While Hill had a season-worst performance, Travis Kelce achieved 2018 highs against Oakland. He managed to produce 12 receptions, 168 yards and 2 TDs in that contest. Since that was a close 40-33 final score, I would think that the Raiders would employ a similar game plan. Kelce is rather expensive at $31, but I still believe that he can be a valuable pick and worth paying up for.
Zach Ertz PHI, $23 @ WAS
If Kelce’s price is too elevated for you, I suggest Zach Ertz as a cheaper option. The Eagles have a shot at the playoffs but only if they win in week 17. Like last season, Philadelphia will need to make a post-season run without Carson Wentz at QB who is currently on injured reserve. Over the last 2 games, with Nick Foles under center, Ertz has led the team in targets with 23. The closest Eagles receiver in that span is Alshon Jeffery with 13 targets. Clearly, Foles favors Ertz and should continue to look his way often in week 17.
Flex RB
C.J. Anderson LAR, $13 vs SF
Todd Gurley will be held out another week in order to have him in the best shape as possible for the playoff run. This decision is easier for the Rams because of how well C.J. Anderson performed last week. Against the Cardinals, he ran the ball 20 times for 167 yards and 1 TD. In week 17, Anderson will be a workhorse RB on a high-powered offense at a fraction of the cost.
Royce Freeman DEN, $13 vs LAC
With Phillip Lindsay being placed on injured reserve, week 17 will be the time to shine for fellow rookie Royce Freeman. With the Chargers excellent pass-rush and secondary, the one area that they are most vulnerable to production is on the ground. The Chargers have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to RB in 0.5 PPR setting this season. Yes, Devontae Booker will get some playing time, but I expect the Broncos to see if Freeman can handle a large workload in the 2018 finale. He may even surpass the 15 rushing attempts that he had in the season opener.
Flex WR
Julian Edelman NE, $24 vs NYJ
We are often accustomed to not seeing the Patriots play on Wild-Card weekend. In order to guarantee themselves a first-round bye, New England must win their week 17 matchup against the Jets. This sets up very well for Julian Edelman as the Jets have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR settings. The Patriots have the 4th highest implied total of 28.75 points, the 4th best total of the week. There should be an abundance of production available for the Patriots running and passing game. Because of the importance of this game, but also the need to protect QB Tom Brady for the playoffs, quick-passing options will be the way to go. That should ensure Edelman’s value for week 17.
Mohamed Sanu ATL, $16 @ TB
Julio Jones was held out of practice early in the week after being a game-time decision in week 16. Considering that the Falcons have nothing to play for, they will not want to risk the long-term health of their star WR. While he will likely be active for Atlanta’s week 17 matchup with the Buccaneers, he may not play his usual lofty amount. That should mean extra work for the other receivers. Chief among them is Mohamed Sanu who scored a TD on only 2 receptions last time that he faced Tampa Bay. The Falcons have an implied total of 25.75 points which is tied for 5th highest among NFL teams this week. With or without Jones, Sanu should be able to produce against a Buccaneers team that has given up the 8th most fantasy points to WRs in 0.5 PPR settings.
Defense
Los Angeles Chargers $12 @ DEN
It has been an up and down season for Case Keenum as the Broncos starting QB. He began the season 2-0 but then he proceeded to lose 6 of the next 7 games. He threw at least 1 INT in the first 8 games of the season, but then went 5 games without doing so. However, he has thrown 4 INTs over the last 2 games. There were also 5 games this season where Keenum failed to throw and TD pass, including his previous encounter with the Chargers. That particular game was a week before DE Joey Bosa made his 2018 debut after suffering a pre-season injury. With their defense now mostly intact, I expect the Chargers to pressure Keenum even more and maybe even force some mistakes. While there is a chance that the Chargers rest some starters, they still have a shot at a first-round playoff bye, so I would expect them to ball out.
Philadelphia Eagles $11 @ WAS
Similarly to the Chargers, the Eagles have something to play for this week. However, instead of a first-round bye, Philadelphia is fighting for a chance to be in the playoffs. The last 3 defenses that Washington has faced have all scored double-digit fantasy points. Knowing that their season is on the line, I expect the Eagles to be ready to go on both sides of the football. At only $11, selecting Philadelphia will give DFS players a talented unit while still enabling them to pay up at other positions.
Thank you for reading. I hope that have found these articles helpful this season. For any comments or questions, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks. While nothing is certain, (as we know from playing DFS) I am planning to continue writing as a part of the Going for 2 team next year. Enjoy week 17 and the NFL playoffs. I wish you all a happy 2019.
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