NFL DFS Yahoo Week 6

It is now week 6 of the 2018 season. For those playing Daily Fantasy Sports, it is another opportunity to win big with NFL games. As always in this series, we will examine players for Yahoo’s main slate. I have selected players whose prices are, in my opinion, valuable and worthy of being in DFS lineups.

Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in the Yahoo main slate.

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. While September is too early to worry about snow games, wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses. Here are the four teams that play Home and Dome in week 6:

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston TB, $26 @ ATL

Sometimes there is a perfect mix of a player’s price and his matchup. This week, that player is Jameis Winston. Yahoo’s price of Winston was deflated during his three-game suspension and it did not rise when he returned. Part of that was the success had by Ryan Fitzpatrick which delayed Winston’s regaining of the reins. That delay only lasted one half of football, as Winston was the Buccaneers QB of the 3rd and 4th quarters of their week 4 game. He did play rather well, going 16 for 20 with 1 TD and 2 INT. Since Tampa Bay’s bye was week 5, Winston had 2 full weeks to reacclimate himself with his receivers. That is just in time for a juicy matchup against the Falcons. While Atlanta had high hopes entering the season, defensive injuries have really diminished that unit’s effectiveness. The Falcons have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to QBs. This game will most likely be a shootout as Vegas gave this and over/under points line of 57.5, the 2nd largest in week 6. While that is in large part to the Atlanta offense, the Buccaneers do have the 7th highest implied point total for a team with 27.25.

Furthermore, the game will be played indoors, which is important considering the rough weather that the South East will be experiencing over the weekend. I normally put 2 QBs in this section but I feel very strongly about Winston this week. I order to maximize the $200 budget, I do not advise paying up for a QB. I will be writing about several high-end players and paying down at QB is the best way to get as many of them into your lineups as possible.

 

Running Backs

Todd Gurley LAR, $40 @ DEN

What needs to be said about Todd Gurley? Arguably the best player in fantasy football is never overpriced. Last week, I put him in my article and he delivered 3 TDs. This week, he has a great matchup as the Broncos have allowed the 7th most 0.5 PPR (points per reception) fantasy points per game to RBs. If they could let Isaiah Crowell gain 231 yards from scrimmage, imagine what the Rams RB could do. Los Angeles is also dealing with injuries to WRs, which means they will be even more inclined to run the ball. Even on the road, and with the highest price tag in the league, Gurley is my top play this week.

 

Ezekiel Elliott DAL, $33 vs JAX

Ezekiel Elliott is far and away the best offensive weapon on his team. Unlike Gurley, Elliott does not have an effective passing attack on his team to keep defenses from stacking the box. In spight of everything working against him, Elliott is 7th in fantasy points among RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. In week 6, he faces a Jaguars defense whose biggest weakness is stopping the run, although they are still pretty good at that. If the Cowboys want to win this game, it will probably require a heavy dose of Elliott and that type of volume is hard to come by outside of Gurley.

 

Joe Mixon CIN, $26 vs PIT

One other player who may see that type of aforementioned workload is Joe Mixon. The Steelers offense is quite potent and the Bengals may prefer to keep the ball out of their opponent’s hands by running the football. In another game that Giovani Bernard is expected to miss, Mixon should see the lion’s share of carries. This is also expected to be a high scoring affair and Cincinnati actually has the 6th highest implied Vegas total at 27.5 points. I know some would lobby for A.J. Green in this situation and that is certainly a sound strategy. However, I prefer to pay a little less and get the guaranteed touches that Mixon will garner.

 

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones ATL, $38 vs TB

I know, I keep going back to the well on this one. I do believe this is the week Julio Jones can get into the end zone. If he cannot, then you will probably never see his name in the article again. Despite the fact that he has 0 TDs, Jones still finds himself in the top 15 WRs for 0.5 PPR scoring. He is even ahead of his teammate Calvin Ridley (also a valid DFS pick in week 6) who has 6 TDs. Enabling that is the fact that Jones is 3rd in receiving yards so far in 2018 with 564. Probably the biggest reason for his inclusion is this potential shootout against the Buccaneers. I would like to get some players from the Home team in a Dome game, and you might as well shoot for the top.

Mike Evans TB, $31 @ ATL

Of course, if Jones is too expensive for your tastes, you can easily look across the field and find a value in Mike Evans. I say value because, at only $31, he is less expensive than a player like DeAndre Hopkins who draws a difficult CB (cornerback) matchup against Tre’Davious White. The Falcons do not have a CB that can cover Evans effectively. Furthermore, Tampa Bay’s run game is almost non-existent, therefore, the team will have little choice but to air it out. With all of this put together, Evans has the potential to outscore all other WRs in week 6.

Adam Thielen MIN, $28 vs ARI

You would expect the player with the 2nd most receiving yards to experience a rise in price. That is not the case as Adam Thielen‘s cost is still at $28. This is even after he got at least 100 receiving yards in each of the first 5 games of 2018, something that had not been done since the merger in 1970. In week 6, Thielen has a good matchup as long as he is not shadowed by Patrick Peterson. Last time they played, in 2016, it was Stefon Diggs who saw the bulk of the all-pro corner in coverage. Helping Thielen’s case is the fact that he has run 65% of his routes from the slot. Paterson only spent time in the slot 9.2% of the time last season and that rate has continued. Adding to Thielen’s value is the fact that this is a Home and Dome game. Coming in a less than other top-tier WRs, Thielen is a great bang for his buck in DFS.

Julian Edelman NE, $20 vs KC

Perhaps the best value this week at WR, or any position frankly, is Julian Edelman. He returned from suspension last week and to the surprise of some, was second on the team in targets. That was a game where the Patriots were seemingly in control for almost the entire time. In week 6, I can imagine a scenario this week where Edelman gets even more work. New England has the highest Vegas implied point total of the week with 31 (and the 2nd highest yet this season). They will probably need it against an incredibly powerful Chiefs offense. Therefore, Tom Brady will probably rely on his favorite target often.

 

Tight Ends

Cameron Brate TB, $15 @ ATL

My favorite stack of the week is Jameis Winston with Cameron Brate. The Buccaneers QB does have a rapport with his TEs and with O.J. Howard out with an injury, Brate should see an increase in targets. In the 2nd half of week 4, once Winston took over as QB, Brate saw 3 targets. That was as many targets as DeSean Jackson saw in that span and more than Chris Godwin had in the whole game. Outside of paying up to get the elite TEs, Brate is the best bet to produce at the position.

Gerald Everett LAR, $10 @ DEN

For those who look to spend the minimum at TE, Gerald Everett offers a great opportunity.  Both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp may miss the week 6 contest against the Broncos. Even if they are active, a Rams team with Super Bowl aspirations may limit their productive WRs for one week. That should give the secondary receiving targets chances to produce and that includes Everett. He has a good matchup against Denver as they have given up the 4th most fantasy points per game to TEs. While there is a chance that Tyler Higbee gets more targets for the Rams, the later is $12 and thus not the minimum play like his teammate. My mistake last week was selecting a $10 TE (Jonnu Smith) on an inconsistent offense. The Rams have the 3rd highest implied total in week 6 with 29.75 points.

 

Flex RB

James Conner PIT, $25 @ CIN

I mentioned that the Bengals may look to run the ball a lot in order to keep the Steelers offense on the bench for as long as possible. I also believe that Pittsburgh will have a similar type of game plan against the Cincinnati offense. That type of scenario would mean that James Conner could get 25 touches like he did last week. Also, this game has the 3rd highest Vegas overéunder for total points with 53. There should be many opportunities for Conner to get into the end zone and put up significant fantasy points.

James White NE, $25 vs KC

The Chiefs have been susceptible to allowing big plays to RBs. On the surface, this game may appear to favor Sony Michel and he is certainly a great play at $26. The week 6 contest in New England does have the highest Vegas over/under projection at 59 points. That type of scoring situation would be a huge boost to James White as the pass-catching RB. This is especially true if Kansas City gets out to an early lead and the Patriots are forced to air it out. White led the team in targets in 3 of the 5 games so far this season. I do not see that changing in week 6.

 

Flex WR

Doug Baldwin SEA, $17 @ OAK (London)

Doug Baldwin has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football this season. A major factor for that is his knee injury which he sustained during training camp. According to Sports Injury Predictor, Baldwin has a grade 1 knee strain. That is the same type of injury that Sony Michel sustained around the same time. The Patriots RB has looked explosive in the last few games, and it is not unrealistic to expect the same from Baldwin. The other good news is the matchup that awaits the ‘Hawks overseas. What we have seen from London games in the past is that if one team is far more prepared than the other, it can turn out to be a blowout. I trust Pete Carroll as a coach more than I do Jon Gruden. As a result, I expect the Seahawks to be ready to play and that includes Baldwin. At only $17, this receiver needs a smaller investment than the top target on most teams.

Sammy Watkins KC, $16 @ NE

Most of the Chiefs players are good picks this week but I want to highlight an option that may not be as popular. With all of the attention that Kareem Hunt will likely receive (especially after he destroyed the Patriots defense last year) that should open things up in the passing game. Sammy Watkins offers DFS players a chance to buy a significant piece of the Kansas City offense. While Tyreek Hill ($32) and Travis Kelce ($23) are decent plays in week 6, Watkins has a much more appealing price tag.

Defenses

Minnesota Vikings $15 vs ARI

The Vikings were considered one of the best defenses in the league last year. Not much has changed in terms of personnel with the only significant loss being Everson Griffen who is currently not with the team due to mental health concerns. The defense has struggled somewhat in 2018, but part of that can be due to the difficult matchups they have had so far. Playing the Packers, the Rams and the Eagles is not great for any defense. The unfortunate thing for Minnesota is that the entire team laid a dud in what was supposed to be the easiest game of the season, vs the Bills. Perhaps the Vikings players bought into that narrative and looked past Buffalo. I do not believe that will occur again when they host another rookie QB. The Cardinals finally won last week, but their offensive line has not played well in 2018. I am looking to exploit that at only $15.

Dallas Cowboys $13 vs JAX

No one is sure which Jaguars offense will show up on any given Sunday. One week, they score 31 points against the Patriots, the next, they put up 6 vs their division rivals the Tennessee Titans. Last week, QB Blake Bortles had a horrible performance by throwing 4 INTs against the Chiefs. Interestingly enough, the Cowboys have a similar defense to Kansas City. The pass-rush is arguably the best aspect for both teams. If Dallas can put pressure on Bortles, there may be opportunities for the defense to get turnovers. That makes the Cowboys defensive unit a great stack with RB Ezekiel Elliott.

Thank you for reading. If you have any comments or questions, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks. Also be sure to check out all of the other DFS content on Going for 2. Best of luck in week 6.

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