NFL DFS Yahoo Week 7

Six weeks of regular season NFL football have come and gone. We have experienced byes for the last few weeks but we now have our first 4-team bye week. Couple that with an extra game that is excluded from the main slate, and the Daily Fantasy Sports options are slightly limited. As we slide into week 7, here are some players that I recommend playing in DFS.

Note: The Thursday and Monday night games are not included in most Yahoo contests. Neither is the London game taking place on Sunday morning (9:30 EST).

 

Scoring settings

1 point for 25 passing yards                     1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards

0.5 points for a reception

4 points for passing touchdown                6 points for rushing/receiving/return touchdowns

-1 point for an interception                       -2 points for a fumble lost

 

Lineup requirements

1 QB       2RB        3WR       1TE         1Flex(R/W/T)     1 DEF                     $200 budget

 

Home and Dome

There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and as well as other inclement weather. Here are the three teams that play Home and Dome in week 7:

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants (Monday Night)

Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos (Thursday Night)

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

While I will not be looking exclusively at these Home and Dome matchups, it is something I consider strongly in my selections.

 

Quarterback

Andy Dalton CIN, $32 @ KC

This should be a shootout. The Vegas point total projection for the Bengals-Chiefs game is at an over/under of 58.5. That is the 2nd highest implied total we have seen in 2018. The largest predicted score was another Kansas City game, last week against the Patriots. I want a QB who is playing in this game as neither the Chiefs or the Bengals are very proficient at stopping QB from producing. They have allowed the 5th and 6th most fantasy points per game respectively to QBs. I chose Andy Dalton, not Patrick Mahomes because of their prices. Mahomes is, once again, the most expensive QB at $40. With only a $200 budget, that $8 is significant, especially at a position like QB where only 1 player may be selected.

Mitchell Trubisky CHI, $26 vs NE

New England, is among the top 10 teams in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs. While they faced some excellent QBs such as Mahomes and Andrew Luck, it was none other than Blake Bortles who scored 35.04 fantasy points against the Patriots. I believe that Mitchell Trubisky can also be productive against this team. After struggling to begin the season, Trubisky has put up back-to-back weeks (separated by a bye) where he scored 43.46 and 28.34 fantasy points. He has a decent chance to continue riding this momentum wave in week 8.

 

Running Back

Alvin Kamara NO, $33 @ BAL

Coming off of their bye week, the Saints are actually underdogs on the road. The Ravens offense has performed very well this year and the oddsmakers expect that to continue. This game has a decent chance at becoming a shootout. The over/under for total points scored is 50 which is the 4th highest in week 7 (and 3rd highest in the Sunday main slate). If this game does play out that way, I expect Alvin Kamara to be the biggest beneficiary. Mark Ingram was used heavily in New Orleans’ blowout win in Washington and I expect his role to diminish if the Saints are trailing. The Ravens have a good pass rush and defensive backs that can cover most receivers. That bodes well for Kamara to be used often as a dump off option. This is also the cheapest price tag on Kamara so far this season. Time to take advantage of the slightly deflated cost.

James White NE, $22 @ CHI

I noticed what appears to be a disparity between what Vegas and Yahoo both believe. Against a Bears defense that may or may not be fronted by Khalil Mack, the Patriots over/under line is at 26.25 points. Only three teams have a higher implied point total in week 8. Yahoo’s prices, however, reflect the fact that New England will be going up against a defensive unit that is capable of rushing the passer and stopping the run effectively. Several Patriots players saw a drop in price, including James White. This is not the most outrageous occurrence as Chicago gives up the 2nd fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. The only time an RB got into the end zone against the Bears this year was David Johnson on a receiving TD. This may be a difficult week for Sony Michel to score, therefore I would rather pay $1 extra and get the Patriots RB with more receiving upside.

Marlon Mack IND, $17 vs BUF

Marlon Mack is the only representative from the Home and Dome group on my list. That is partially due to the fact that only one Home and Dome game is in the main Sunday slate. The reason for Mack’s inclusion on this list is actually not the stadium situation as that usually favors players in the passing game. I selected Mack because of his opponent in week 8, the Buffalo Bills. While many, including myself, anticipated that the Bills would be one of the worst teams in the NFL, they have actually been pretty good defensively. They are above average at preventing fantasy points from being scored at every position except RB. The Colts demonstrated that they have no problem giving Mack a big workload as he got 13 touches in his return from injury last week. I expect big things from him in week 8.

 

Wide Receivers

A.J. Green CIN, $35 @ KC

Home field advantage is certainly real. However, some players just seem to be road warriors, including A.J. Green. In 5 of his 8 years in the NFL, the game with Green’s season-high is yards came on the road. That includes a career-best 227 receiving yards @ Baltimore back in 2015. Even with the emergence of Tyler Boyd this season (who is also a good DFS play in Yahoo), Green is still the top dog for the Bengals. Only once this season has Boyd received more targets than his teammate. Green has been held out of the end zone for two straight weeks, but I do not expect it to be a third. Pairing him with his QB Andy Dalton is my favorite stack this week.

Tyreek Hill KC, $31 vs CIN

My second favorite stack is putting Green in the same lineup as Tyreek Hill. If this game will be the shootout that many are expecting, the top receivers for both teams should produce solid fantasy numbers. With the expected high score of this matchup, several payers involved have seen their Yahoo prices rise. That includes Travis Kelce who is more expensive than Hill for the first time this season. I would rather play Hill and save some money at the TE position. Especially a position where I am unlikely to play more than one player.

John Brown $24 Willie Snead $20 BAL vs NO

In week 7, Vegas has given the Ravens an implied total of 26, their best so far this season. There is a good reason for that as the Saints have allowed the 7th most points per game in 2018. That obviously trickles down to the Baltimore players when it comes to fantasy points. The Saints have allowed 36.26 fantasy points per game to WRs in 0.5 PPR (point per game) formats. That is most in the league and 3.5 points more than any other team. That makes all of the Ravens receivers viable in DFS, most of all John Brown. He began the season strong with double-digit fantasy points in the first four games. Brown has cooled off the last two weeks, but playing the Saints could be the perfect recipe to get back on track.

If Brown’s price is too much, perhaps paying $4 less for Willie Snead will be more appealing. He is being heavily targeted by Joe Flacco. He has not had less than 5 in any game in 2018, including 10 last week. Snead experienced a price increase on Yahoo due to the game against the Saints. While I tend to avoid players when they have big cost jumps, this is a matchup where I want to get one of the team’s top three receivers.

 

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski NE, $24 @ CHI

We are witnessing a shift at the top of the TE hierarchy. Both Travis Kelce ($32) and Zach Ertz ($27) are more expensive than Rob Gronkowski on Yahoo. They have been more productive in 2018 than the Patriot. In the past, injuries have been the only thing that prevented Gronkowski from out-producing other TEs. This season, however, he has played every game so far, yet he is only ranked 7th in TE scoring. Part of that has been the lack of TDs, as he only scored in week 1. Perhaps this is the week that he gets back into the end zone as the Bears have given up 4TDs to TEs, tied for most in the league. Even if he doesn’t score, Gronkowski can still be relatively productive. He put up double-digit fantasy points in each of the last 2 weeks, without getting into the end zone. Gronkowski is not like other TEs who are TD or bust.

C.J. Uzomah CIN, $15 @ KC

Part of that group of TEs is C.J. Uzomah. The newly appointed starter in Cincinnati, Uzomah received 7 targets last week. He turned that into a fantasy score of 8.4 in 0.5 PPR formats. Still, his best game so far this season was in week 3 when he scored a TD on 2 targets. In a very attractive matchup against the Chiefs, Uzomah has a great chance of getting into the end zone. The Bengals are tied for the 4th highest implied point total, and both teams combine for the highest over/under line of week 7. Furthermore, Kansas City has allowed the 4th most 0.5 PPR fantasy points to TE in 2018. Uzomah offers DFS players the potential to have the highest scoring TE of the week, without having to pay a premium.

 

Flex RB

Javorius Allen BAL, $14 vs NO

One thing that I have noticed with the Ravens backfield is that is it mostly dependant upon game-script. For instance, Javorius Allen saw his lowest snap count (36.8%) in last week’s 21-0 blowout of the Titans. He is arguably the best pass-catching RB active in Baltimore, therefore, his services were not as necessary. By contrast, in week 5, they lost to the Browns in OT. Needing to tie the game late, Baltimore played Allen in 57.5% of the offensive snaps and received 14 touches (both of which are season-highs). If this week’s contest against the Saints has explosive offensive output as expected, then I believe Allen is the Ravens RB to play. Trying to keep up with or stay ahead of Drew Brees may allow Allen to reach a new level of production. While the presence of Alex Collins makes it a risky proposition, at only $14, it is a risk that I am willing to take.

Peyton Barber TB, $12 vs CLE

There are two major factors prompting my selection of Peyton Barber. First, the Browns have given up an average of 23.55 fantasy points per game to RBs in 0.5 PPR formats. That is 6th most in the league. The second factor is Barber’s price. He is the lest expensive starting RB this week. There was the thought that the Buccanneers could play Ronald Jones a lot more coming out of their bye. However, Barber out touched Jones 17-4 in week 6, signaling a delay in that transition.

Flex WR

Taylor Gabriel CHI, $15 vs NE

An underrated stack that I have this week is Mitch Trubisky with Taylor Gabriel. The WR has been targeted at least 5 times in every game this season. The offense as a whole struggled in the first three games and Gabriel’s production suffered. He never topped 34 receiving yards in those contests. The last two, however, a been a complete contrast. For Gabriel, that is represented by two consecutive 100+ yard games. I expect that momentum to continue in week 7. The Patriots are in the bottom half of the league in defending WR fantasy production.

Cole Beasley DAL, $12 @ WAS

Cole Beasley and Ezekiel Elliott have combined for about 1/3 of all Cowboys targets this season. Those middle of the field passes bode well for Dallas against the Washington secondary. Josh Norman is the best defensive back on the team and he does not travel into the slot. He does not shadow opponent’s top receivers and for the Cowboys that is Beasly. That may be due to the lack of other viable options outside of Elliott and Michael Gallup (who is surprisingly 5th on the team in targets). While it may appear that I am chasing points from last week, we have seen Dak Prescott favor Beasly in the past. That was with Dez Bryant on the team, therefore Prescott should have no issue doing the same with their current WR corps. $12 for a team’s clear-cut receiver is a great price. The next cheapest is T.Y. Hilton at $22.

 

Defense

Indianapolis Colts $17 vs BUF

The Colts are, perhaps surprisingly, in a tie at 5th place for sacks this season. Against, the Bills offensive-line they have a decent chance rack up more. If nothing else, they should put new starting QB Derek Anderson under pressure. That could lead to some turnovers that are much needed from a DFS defense in order to win big. In recent years, we saw Anderson produce when called upon by the Carolina Panthers. Their o-line was much better than Buffalo’s current unit. The Indianapolis defense has had a price tag of$16-$17 for three weeks now. This may be the game where that investment pays off.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers $11 vs CLE

For a low-price defense to play, I recommend the Tampa Bay Buccanneers. Yes, Baker Mayfield has found success early in his NFL career. He has, however, thrown 5 INTs over the last 3 weeks. While Tampa Bay does not possess the pass-rushing prowess of other defensive options (Texans, Jaguars, Vikings), their discounted price offers DFS players some roster flexibility.

 

Thank you for reading. I wish you the best of success in lucky number 7. Enjoy this week of NFL football and remember to check out Going for 2 for all of your DFS needs.

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