NFL Fantasy Football Week 7 Preview

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Week 7 Preview!  In this article, I will run down every game from this weekend and talk about my favorite matchups and guys I will likely avoid.  The main slate of games is kind of ugly this week, so finding the best matchups in these less appealing games will be the key to winning in fantasy this week!  Let’s get into it!

 

Panthers at Eagles

 

Carson Wentz has continued to progress this season and is almost to his 2017 form.  His rapport with Alshon Jeffrey seems to be in a great spot with multiple touchdown passes to him in two out of three games on the season.  This has seemed to phase Nelson Agholor out of the game plan, however.  He has seen five or fewer targets in two straight games and will be matched up with rookie CB Donte Jackson this week, who has three picks on the year.  The Panthers have also done a good job at limiting tight ends thus far, mainly due to All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly.  Ertz seems to be matchup-proof, but this will be a tough test.

The Eagles have the best front seven in the league.  One way to get Cam Newton off his game is to hit him a lot, and they’ll be able to do just that.  They are also great at limiting opposing running backs, but they have given up 41 receptions to the position on the year, tied for third-most.  Christian McCaffrey continues to dominate the Carolina backfield, especially in the passing game.  That is where a chunk of his fantasy points will come in this one.  Greg Olsen came back from his foot injury and was instantly a part of the game plan, running 35 routes.  The Eagles are good against tight ends, but that is promising usage from an elite talent at the position.

 

Vikings at Jets

 

The Jets have an underrated secondary, but they are incredibly weak in the slot.  Morris Claiborne has been excellent on the outside, which limits Stefon Diggs, but Adam Thielen has posted over 100 yards in every game and has scored five touchdowns.  He’s the top overall receiver.  Dalvin Cook is supposed to be fully healthy, but I’ll believe it when I see it.  Latavius Murray has carved out a role and that backfield should see a 60-40 split for the rest of the season.  The Jets have also given up the fewest receptions and yards to tight ends on the season.  Kyle Rudolph is a very risky play.

Vikings rookie corner Mike Hughes tore his ACL setting up Mackensie Alexander for full-time slot duties.  He is a liability and can be exploited.  With Quincy Enunwa dealing with a high ankle sprain, Jermaine Kearse becomes the best fantasy asset for the Jets offense.  He saw 10 targets last week.  Isaiah Crowell is clearly not fully healthy, but he continues to outperform Bilal Powell.  Powell, who is supposed to dominate passing game work, has had three games with zero catches this season.  Crowell is getting the red zone work and more passing work.

 

Bills at Colts

 

The Bills have 19 sacks on the season and the Colts continue to let Andrew Luck get hit on every drop back.  It carries plenty of risk, but I’m playing the Bills defense this week.  T.Y. Hilton is practicing in full on Thursday, so he should be good to go this weekend.  Tre White would have his sights set on him, but Hilton plays out of the slot so I don’t think White will travel with him.  This does kill Chester Rodgers’ value.  Eric Ebron was banged up and in his toughest matchup of the season last week and he stilled scored a touchdown and was a top-5 tight end.

Derek Anderson will be taking the reins of the Bills offense.  Kelvin Benjamin’s splits with Anderson in Carolina look promising, but I can’t see myself starting anyone on this Bills offense.  LeSean McCoy continues to see solid carry volume, but he gets taken out in the red zone and on short yardage so he literally offers the bare minimum fantasy value.

 

Patriots at Bears

 

Chicago’s offense is hot right now with Mitchell Trubisky slinging the ball like Alex Smith last year.  Matt Nagy must be the “conservative quarterback whisperer” or something because he has transformed this offense.  Most of the success has come at the expense of Jordan Howard, who fumbled by running into his own lineman on the goal line.  The offense is simply more explosive with Tarik Cohen in the backfield and he has slowly taken more and more work.  Taylor Gabriel has also become the Tyreek Hill of this offense.  He is getting targeted down the field and is being shielded from top corners thanks to Allen Robinson’s presence.

The Bears have a fierce defense, but Khalil Mack is banged up.  Their pass rush might be limited in this game.  This would give Tom Brady a nice boost, and I think he’ll target the slot plenty.  I wrote up how the Bears aren’t good against explosive slot receivers last week as Albert Wilson went off for 30 fantasy points.  Julian Edelman should have a great game in this one.  I am concerned about Rob Gronkowski and his low target share.  He is only seeing about 18 percent of Brady’s looks and has only one red zone target on the year.  Compound that with the fact that the Bears give up the third-fewest receptions to tight ends and you’re looking at an easy fade.  This looks more like a James White game more than a Sony Michel game.  It should be competitive and that typically favors White.

 

Browns at Buccaneers

 

David Njoku is my ultimate “lock in” play of the week.  He is coming off of a 12 target game where he caught seven of them for 55 yards and a touchdown.  Now he’s facing the Bucs, who give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.  Baker Mayfield is dealing with an ankle injury and his receivers have been brutal, but he has a good matchup.  Jarvis Landry should be heavily targeted as the Bucs give up the most fantasy points to the slot.  If he fixes his hands, he should have a great game.

Jameis Winston gave the middle finger to the haters by throwing for 395 and four touchdowns in his first start of the season.  He has some of the best receiving weapons around him and should be able to produce despite this rough matchup.  Denzel Ward will likely be shadowing Mike Evans, so I would be more comfortable playing the other Bucs weapons.  O.J. Howard received some voodoo magic on his MCL sprain and didn’t even miss a game.  He ended up catching a touchdown last week and should be heavily involved again in this one.

 

Texans at Jaguars

 

The Jaguars are not looking like the best defense in the NFL anymore.  The Texans weapons are priced way down on DFS sites and I would be happy to play them.  Keke Coutee would be my favorite play.  He is running the short routes out of the slot and 60 percent of his yards come after the catch.  Coutee has a high floor in this game with his 24.5 percent target share.

Every tight end is banged up for the Jaguars.  This should push targets to the perimeter, which would favor Keelan Cole.  The Texans are very beatable on the exterior and that is where the Jags should attack.  Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue still eat into each other’s production, so I wouldn’t want to look at either of them.

 

Lions at Dolphins

 

Xavien Howard might shadow Kenny Golladay in this game, but I don’t think it matters.  Golladay looks like a more physical A.J. Green clone and he is seeing a solid 21 percent target share.  Golden Tate seems to have the best matchup in the slot, though.  Theo Riddick may miss the game, which could set up Kerryon Johnson for a breakout game.  If he performs well in the passing game he should command more overall work.  I’m never a fan of playing Matthew Stafford outdoors, but the Dolphins are a good matchup.

Brock Osweiler is starting again this week.  I think he is the ultimate trap play.  He came out of nowhere and won someone the Millionaire Maker on DK, but the Lions will have a week of game planning for him and we know that he is really bad at football.  Neither of the Dolphins running backs have reached 20 touches in a game.  Can’t trust them.  Albert Wilson has taken over as the best receiver on the team.  He has anointed himself the crown of the best YAC receiver in the league, and he may have just earned it last week.  He now has 320 yards after the catch, good for sixth in the league.  I like him again in this one and he should avoid Darius Slay with the number of routes he plays in the slot.

 

Saints at Ravens

 

Drew Brees struggles outdoors and the Ravens are arguably the top defense in the NFL with CB Jimmy Smith back.  He’ll likely match up with Michael Thomas and has the frame to body him up.  Mark Ingram and the running game will struggle in this one, so I think the offense will run through Alvin Kamara in the passing game.  The Saints should play him out of the slot to get him on a linebacker.  With Ted Ginn on IR, Tre’Quan Smith steps into a full-time role on the offense.  He is a deep threat that is highly volatile.

I love Javorius Allen in this one.  The Saints are the best defense at shutting down an opponent’s running game, but they rank dead last in success rate against running backs in the passing game, per numberFire.  Allen sees plenty of red zone and goal line work as well.  Willie Snead should have a revenge game against Ken Crawley and P.J. Williams.  They are truly awful corners.  I’m not sure whether John Brown or Michael Crabtree will be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, but I would feel better about starting Brown in this matchup.  Joe Flacco is also my favorite streamer this week.

 

Cowboys at Redskins

 

I am hesitant about Chris Thompson again.  He’s been limited all week and after his broken leg last season, the Redskins should proceed with caution.  If he is out then it is Adrian Peterson All Day.  Kapri Bibbs got three touches last week, so he is literally useless.  Jamison Crowder got banged up and will likely be out.  This would set up Maurice Harris to dominate slot duties.  He is just a guy, but he could see solid volume with so many Washington weapons banged up.

The Redskins have a great pass rush and their secondary is solid.  If they sell out to stop the run as they did to New Orleans, then they have a shot at winning this one.  Ezekiel Elliott still has a great matchup, though.  I would bank on enough volume to overcome loaded boxes.  I would avoid Dak Prescott at all cost though.  I have no faith in his receivers and he would have to get it done with his own legs.

 

Rams at 49ers

 

The 49ers keep surprising everyone offensively.  C.J. Beathard is averaging 20 points per game and is keeping the weapons in that offense active.  Marquise Goodwin had a signature game catching two deep touchdowns, and I’m willing to go back to him this week as well.  Beathard was accurate on his deep attempts and the Rams have really missed Aquib Talib at CB.  This could also be a good game for Matt Breida.  The Rams don’t give up too much volume to running backs, but they do give up plenty of efficiency.  The 49ers also look like one of the best run-blocking teams this season.

Robert Woods is my favorite play in this offense.  He’ll take over slot duties for the injured Cooper Kupp and slot receivers have dominated the 49ers all season.  Brandin Cooks has run over 80 percent of his routes from the left receiver spot, meaning he’ll avoid Richard Sherman for most of the game.  Josh Reynolds is intriguing, but his role might just be limited to taking up Sherman’s time.  Gurley is also worth the price in DFS.

 

Bengals at Chiefs

 

Get a piece of this game because there will be fireworks.  The Chiefs are the worst defense in the NFL at pretty much every spot.  Joe Mixon should see his usual heavy workload and the Chiefs could not stop Sony Michel last week.  A.J. Green is in a prime spot on the outside against Orlando Scandrick.  C.J. Uzomah has been battling an ankle injury this week, but they are likely just regulating his exposure since they are so banged up at tight end.  He is a great play for me.  The one guy I would hesitate on would be Tyler Boyd.  Kyle Fuller is a solid slot corner and he’ll match up with Boyd for most of the game.  Boyd has been on fire lately, but I’m tempering expectations.

Literally, start everyone on the Chiefs.  This is a primetime game against a weak defense with a massive implied point total.

 

Giants at Falcons

 

The Falcons continue to get dominated by running backs.  Peyton Barber even put up 20 fantasy points on them.  Saquon Barkley might have 50.  Sterling Shepard should also see a sizable target share against the weak Falcons secondary.  The Falcons pass rush hasn’t been performing well, so Eli Manning should have some time to do more than a five-yard check down to a drag route.  The Falcons give up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks.  If Evan Engram is healthy, he should step right into a solid role.

Matt Ryan is playing close to his 2016 MVP level.  Janoris Jenkins has been getting torched, so Julio Jones might even catch a touchdown in this one.  He is still on pace for 1900 receiving yards regardless.  Ito Smith’s advanced metrics look great.  He is seventh in PFF’s elusiveness rating, meaning he’s breaking tackles at a high rate.  They also seem to trust him near the goal line more than Tevin Coleman, which is something that has frustrated Coleman owners for years in that Falcons offense.  With Mohammed Sanu and Calvin Ridley banged up, Austin Hooper might get even more involved.  He is seeing a career-high in target share and has back-to-back top-5 weeks.

 

Thank you for reading!  You can follow me on Twitter @jtaysmith16 to keep up with my content.  Good luck to everyone this week.

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