NFL PRESEASON WEEK 2; THINGS WE LEARNED
In this series of articles, we’ll discuss some of the things we’ve learned in the games, as they pertain to fantasy football. I’m more of a DFS than a season long player, so while this article is going to be tailored more towards daily NFL, many of these things we’ve learned can be used as you formulate your draft strategy.
Again these articles are meant for fantasy football. I’m not going to be discussing which 3rd string quarterback is building a good on field relationship with a back-up tight end or which bubble cornerback improved his chances of making the final 53. I don’t care about these developments, and from a fantasy perspective, neither should you.
It’s important not to over react to anything that happens in the preseason (except injuries, of course.) This is especially true in the first couple of weeks, when the starters play little, if at all. Just store some of these tidbits in your mind, see if preseason trends continue, and then use them in your research and player evaluation.
Finally, I don’t watch every minute of every preseason game, I like to think I have a life outside of DFS (I probably don’t, but indulge me….) If you notice anything I’ve missed, please comment about it. Also, not every team will be listed every week since there will be games in which we really don’t learn anything we didn’t know before.
ATLANTA FALCONS
In his first two preseason games, Matt Ryan has more touchdown passes than incompletions, going 10-11 with 163 yards and 2 touchdowns. While new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan prefers a heavy dose of running the ball, this might not be possible with a below average offensive line and the top two running back options, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman being held out again due to injury concerns. Matt Ryan is currently my top rated QB in GPP against the Eagles, in what should be a Week 1 shootout.
BUFFALO BILLS
Tyrod Taylor continued his impressive preseason completing 7 of 10 passes for 65 yards and rushing 4 times for 41 yards. While these were not eye popping numbers, it must be noted that he did this with Buffalo’s top five wide receivers and top three running backs sitting the game out. If Taylor were to continue his strong play and get the start, he could be a sneaky GPP play at minimum salary.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Kelvin Benjamin will miss the 2015 season with a torn ACL. I see this as a downgrade for Cam Newton and the running games, but a small bump for Greg Olsen and the Panthers wide receivers. Benjamin was the 6th most targeted receiver last season, with 148, and somehow they’re going to be divided by the remaining receivers. Rookie WR David Funchess, the leading candidate to replace Benjamin in the line-up, did not play due to injury.
CHICAGO BEARS
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While WR Eddie Royal only caught 1 pass for 5 yards, reports out of Bears camp are that they’re planning to use him as the Z receiver in two WR packages and kick him into the slot in 3WR sets. Furthermore, the Chicago Sun-Times have names Royal the Bears camp MVP. With the injury to WR Kevin White, Royal is on our radar in a Week 1 game versus the Packers, that’s expected to be a shootout.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Cleveland offense is a mess and has the worst cast of skill position players in the NFL. Starting QB Josh McCown picked up where he left off last season with the Bucs by throwing 2 interceptions against the Bill. The running back situation will involve some sort of committee of plodders Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson, who has yet to make it on the field. Meanwhile, the receiving corps is utterly devoid of any playmakers. You should target defenses against the Browns whenever possible.
DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys aren’t giving us much to go on in the first two weeks of the preseason. After missing week 1, Tony Romo played one series completing 1 pass for 1 yards while free agent RD Darren McFadden carried the ball 3 times for 4 yards. RB Joseph Randle carried 7 times for 30 yards, but his value will be severely limited by the expected 3 man running back committee he’ll form with McFadden and Lance Dunbar. We’ll seek some clarity next week, but temper expectations concerning any Cowboy running back. This situation has running back by committee written all over it.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
While a blow to the Packers Super Bowl chances, Jordy Nelson’s season ending injury is not as devastating to the team as the injury to Kelvin Benjamin is to the Panthers. Obviously Aaron Rodgers gets a slight down grade while the rest of the Packers receivers get a bump. The biggest bump goes to Davante Adams, who now vaults into the starting line-up. Nelson was targeted an amazing 151 times and Adams, whom Rogers already said would be a bigger part of the passing game, should see the lion’s share of those. WR Randall Cobb, who must now prove he can be a true #1 WR and 2nd year TE Richard Rodgers, who has vaulted over last year’s starter Andrew Quarless, get bumps as well.
Eddie Lacy looked good again, rushing 6 times for 30 yards and a TD. Most running backs would get a downgrade, with the #1 wide receiver out, but I think Lacy actually gets a bump. Defenses can’t stack the box consistently against Aaron Rodgers without paying the price. Lacy remains my favorite RB in DFS in a Week 1 showdown against the Bears bottom of the barrel defense.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Ryan Tannehill had another strong outing against the Carolina Panthers, completing 12 of 15 passes for 102 yards and a TD. In two preseason games he’s 18 of 22 for 158 yards and 2 TDs. Even though he was sacked 3 times and still tends to hold the ball too long, Tannehill is continuing to show signs of improvement. With an improved receiving corps, this could be a breakout year for Tannehill.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Teddy Bridgewater continues to build off a strong ending to last year’s regular season. He completed 10 of 14 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. On the preseason Bridgewater is 22 of 28 for 219 yards and a TD for a 111.2 QB rating. He’s a sneaky GPP play against a decimated 49ers defense in Week 1.
Charles Johnson, whom Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner, called “the best wide receiver on the team, and it’s not even close,” got it going with 4 receptions for 40 yards and a TD. Even though the Vikings should be a run-first team, Johnson has fantasy appeal with what should be loosened coverage, with Adrian Peterson returning and Mike Wallace being signed.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Through two preseason games, the Giants offense is a mess, scoring one field goal in seven possessions. On Saturday, Eli Manning completed 4 of 14 passes for 46 yards. He targeted rookie phenom Odell Beckham Jr 5 times, but was unable to complete a single pass to the receiver. We’ll wait for the week 3 “dress rehearsal” before passing judgment, but we perhaps should temper expectations for the Giants Week 1 game at Dallas.
NEW YORK JETS
Chris Ivory ran 5 times for 36 yards and a TD against Atlanta. While a nice outing, the important thing about Ivory to consider is that several Jets beat writers are suggesting that he will be the Jets bell cow running back. Bilal Powell should assume 3rd down back duties, but if Ivory has 1st and 2nd downs to himself in the Jets backfield, he’ll be on our radar in a Week 1 game against a bad Browns run defense.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Drew Brees made is preseason debut but already appears to be in mid-season form completing 8 of 10 passes for 159 yards and 2 TDs. He also showed good chemistry with sophomore WR Brandin Cooks, expected to be the Saints #1 WR after injury ended his 2014 season. Cooks caught all 4 targets for 117 yards and a TD. Although I don’t like the Saints Week 1 match-up against Arizona’s defense, Brees, Cooks and rookie WR Brandon Coleman (6’6”,225) are all intriguing targets in later early season games against lesser defenses.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray made their Eagles debut and both looked comfortable in the offense, so much as their brief time on the field allowed evaluation. Bradford is firmly entrenched as a Week 1 GPP play at his price in DFS against a bad Falcons pass defense. I’m not as high on Murray, however. He wore down under a heavy workload last year, historically running backs with 400+ touches their previous seasons have had disappointing seasons and the Eagles have RBs Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles to syphon touches.
Rookie WR Nelson Agholor caught 4 passes for 49 yards on 5 targets. Though he’s had some drops (something he didn’t have a problem with at USC) in two preseason games he has 8 catches for 106 yards. Although Jordan Matthews is clearly the #1 WR in this offense, (and an amazing DFS play in both cash and GPP contests on FanDuel), Agholor does offer nice fantasy upside as the Eagles presumptive #2 WR.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
What a difference a week makes. Jameis Winston, who was terrible last week, looked much better against the Bengals last night going 8 of 13 for 90 yards and a 1 yard TD run. Winston is still a work in progress though as he air mailed a couple receivers and was inaccurate with the deep ball.
Speaking of a difference, Doug Martin looked like “rookie Doug Martin” carrying the ball 6 times for 59 yards. We’ll take a wait and see approach with Martin, but another strong performance next week could vault him into DFS consideration against a weak Titans run defense.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Redskins starting offense was bad, managing just one first down in 4 series. Robert Griffin III was horrible, completing just 2 of 5 passes for a whopping 8 yards, while taking sacks and fumbling twice, with one lost near the Redskins’ end zone. While rookie Matt Jones was the one bright spot, I don’t think he’ll get enough touches to be a good value in Week 1. Redskins players are completely off my radar against a talented Miami defense in the season opener.
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