NFL Preview for Championship Sunday

This Sunday, January 24th, we find out who’ll be attending Super Bowl 55. Sportsbooks opened up with the Green Bay Packers favored by 3.5 points over the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs as 3-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills. However, the NFL lines have moved at most shops. The Packers are now on the boards as just 3-point favorites at most betting outlets. 

Let’s look at the NFC Championship Game and see if there are any clear advantages against the betting lines.

Tampa Bay Versus Green Bay

The big day is finally arriving. 

It was great watching a playoff showdown between Drew Brees and Tom Brady. But it was a little sad to see one of the most decorated signal-callers in NFL history fall just a hair short again. Tom Brady led the Patriots machine deep into or all the way through the playoffs on multiple occasions. Drew Brees has only been able to take the Saints to two playoff wins in one season twice in his long career. But Tom moved over from the NFC and took over as Field Marshall for a franchise that has struggled for the better part of 20 years and immediately gets his new team to the NFC Conference Championship Game. 

Now, we get another fantastic matchup: Aaron Rodgers and his offense against Tom Brady and his men. At three points and a hook, there is little value in taking the Packers. But there also isn’t a whole lot of value in taking the Buccaneers. At Bookmaker, they are playing with the juice, and the standard line is now set with the Packers at -3 but priced at a juicy -125. I’m simply not eating that much chalk. It kills the value again. Come on, guys, give us -110 to -110 and stop screwing us around!

Both ESPN and TeamRankings have the Buccaneers power rating a little more than a point better than Green Bay. We would traditionally see this off-set by home-field advantage giving back around 2.5 points to the home team. But with approximately 8,000 people expected in attendance –just 10% of Lambeau Field’s capacity– we can’t award Green Bay the full 2.5. 

The sum leaves us essentially at a pick’em. That said, we could see snow on Sunday. The forecast calls for temperatures between 20 and 28 degrees along with snow showers. For Tom Brady and Gronk, the snow isn’t much of a concern. Handfuls of seasons in Foxboro have immunized them from its effects. However, the Buccaneers defense could suffer mightly in the slippery white stuff. If it does snow, we can award that other point and hook to the Green Bay Packers. 

Buccaneers vs. Packers Statistical Matchup

When we look at total offensive stats, the Packers average a little more than one point per game more than the Buccaneers. The Buccs pass the ball for around 30 yards more per game, but the Packers run the ball for more than 35 yards per game more than the Buccaneers. Despite the Buccs passing for more yardage, the Green Bay Packers win the yards per play stat war 6.02 to 6.32 and keep the opposing defense on the field for 3 minutes and 37 seconds longer per game. 

However, in the home vs. away stats, the Buccaneers score 32.50 points per game to the Packers 31.67 (just a hair under one point more) and pass for a whopping 310.4 yards per game to the Packers 250.56 while at home. 

Conversely, the Packers rush for 164.89 yards per game while in Lambeau. So, we have the No. 2 road passing offense against the No. 2 home rushing offense. And the Packers still own a better yards per play stat at 6.48 to 6.10. 

Defensively, the Packers play better at home. They have the No. 4 home scoring defense, allowing just 19.33 points per game. This number goes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 20.70 points per game allowed on the road. Now, you may have heard people arguing that the Buccs have the No. 1 road rushing defense in the league, holding teams to just 70.10 yards per game, and for that reason, they will win. OK. But this is nullified by the fact that the Packers have the No. 1 home passing defense in the NFL. They allow just 184.44 through the air while playing in Green Bay.  

The other factor in this game is that no one is playing better than Aaron Rodgers. He’s on a different level right now. I believe this one will be a war, but I have to give a slight edge to the home team.

My lean is to the Packers, but it isn’t strong enough to put my hard-earned money against that betting line just yet. At the moment, I can’t find a clear advantage against the line either way. 

I will wait and see if the 30% chance of snow increases and hope that more money goes on the Tampa Bay side. I’ll spend that extra 15 cents to get the Packers at -2.5, but out of principle, I’ll not at -3. If the juice evens up, even to -3, -115, I would also take Green bay.