NFL Week 12: Best Bets to Win Against The Spread
It is Thanksgiving weekend and that means it is time for the three F’s, family, food, and most importantly football. Since you are reading this article you have already watched Houston vs Detroit and Washington vs Dallas. But we are now focusing on the rest of the weekend’s games. So grab yourself a leftover turkey sandwich and check out my best bets to win against the spread for Week 12.
To give you guys the best advice I have to be able to take my losses as much as I can accept my wins. So each week I will recap my record from the previous week. Unfortunately last week I was only 1-4. Thank you, Cleveland for my only win. So let’s get some redemption this week.
Note: The Baltimore Ravens have been forced to shutdown team facilities due to COVID-19. The game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers was moved to Sunday. However, it is becoming more unlikely that the game will be played anytime before Monday.
My Week 12 Picks
Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots (+1.5)
Both the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots will be looking to win after both had tough losses in Week 11. The Cardinals offense is run by Kyler Murray, the young and dynamic quarterback who has shown growth and maturity so far this season. To me, the Cardinals passing game will be the key to this game. They are ranked as the #1 passing offense so far this year.
The Patriots passing defense is in the middle of the pack with the 15th ranked passing defense. The key matchup on the outside will be Deandre Hopkins against Stephon Gilmore. There is a chance that Gilmore could slow down Hopkins to some extent. Unfortunately for the Patriots Murray has other weapons on the outside like Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella. The Cardinals also have a decent running game that is lead by Murray and also includes Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. The Patriots are missing a lot of normal defensive starters who opted out due to COVID-19 and besides Gilmore, I think the Patriots are going to have a hard time stopping the Cardinals offensive attack.
The Cardinals are ranked in the middle of the NFL just like the Patriots are, however, the difference is they are going against the 2020 Patriots offense and the ghosts of Tom Brady. The Patriots currently have the 4th ranked rushing offense in the NFL unfortunately, Rex Burkhead is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. I don’t believe that it will matter too much because of the development of Damien Harris and the running success of Cam Newton, especially in the red zone. The Achilles heel for the Patriots offense is by far their passing game. They do not have any big-name weapons which attributed to their passing game being ranked 27th in the NFL. I do not have to tell you that is bad. Will the Patriots passing game do enough to compliment the running game and pull off the upset?
The Cardinals are 5-5 against the spread and 3-2 ATS on the road. The Patriots are 4-6 against the spread and 3-2 ATS at home. Both teams are 3-2 ATS on the road and home respectively. What that means to me is that this game will come down to a few plays that will determine the game. I don’t see a way that the Patriots will be able to stop the Cardinals passing attack. Yes, I said attack, because that is what Kyler Murray will do to the Patriots defense. Cam Newton will not be able to do enough to lead the Patriots to a win. MY PICK: Arizona Cardinals -1.5
Las Vegas Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons (+3)
The Atlanta Falcons are coming into this game with a 3-7 record, even though they are 2-2 in their last four games. Those wins were against the Broncos and Panthers who both have losing records. The Las Vegas Raiders are 6-4, but only one loss is against a team with a current losing record. The Raiders have Josh Jacobs who is one of the best young running backs in the NFL. They are ranked 7th in the league in rushing offense. They will need to run the ball well so Derek Carr can be successful.
Because for the Raiders to win this week the Raiders must take advantage of a Falcons passing defense that is ranked second to last in the NFL. Look for the wide receivers and tight end Darren Waller to have a good game. Just because you have a good passing game or running game does not mean that you will win games, and the Falcons are the epitome of that. Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game is ranked 3rd in the NFL. They have a very talented receiving corps that is lead by Julio Jones. They have a middle of the pack running game but that is not what is concerning. To win games you have to score and even though they are ranked in the middle of the pack in total offense they are the 25th ranked team in scoring per game. So they will need to finally put up points in this game if they want to pull off the upset.
The Raiders are 7-3 against the spread and an impressive 4-1 ATS on the road. The Falcons are unfortunately 4-6 against the spread and 1-4 ATS at home. This game to me is going to be a high-scoring game. The keys are going to be what defense can make a key stop and which running game will make a few plays when needed. I know the Falcons can throw the ball all over the field but I just have a feeling that the Raiders will be able to be successful full against a horrible passing defense. MY PICK: Las Vegas Raiders -3.
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Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts (-3)
The Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts are very familiar with each other. They just played each other in Week 10 and the Colts got the victory on the road at Tennessee. The Titans will look for revenge this week when they visit Indianapolis. Yes, the Colts have the 3rd ranked defense against the run this season, but they are going against Derrick Henry. Henry already has 1,079 yards on the season and had 103 against the Colts in Week 10. He didn’t have a touchdown in the first meeting but I would imagine that will change on Sunday.
Corey Davis and A.J. Brown have both had resurgence and look to keep that up. Now, onto the Colts offense which is lead by Philip Rivers. The Colts are lead by a running game that has three guys who are all capable of having good games. In the first meeting, Nyheim Hines had two touchdowns and helped them get the victory. This week to get the win, I think rookie Jonathan Taylor will need to be more involved in the rushing attack. Rivers at this point of his career will keep you n games but necessarily go out and win games.
The Titans are 4-6 against the spread and only 1-3 ATS on the road. The Colts are 6-4 against the spread and are 3-2 ATS at home. Sweeping a division opponent is a tough task for any team. Will the Colts do enough on Sunday to beat the Titans again? Henry and the Titans offense will do their best to stop the Colts from doing so. I expect the game to be close and both running games to be successful. I personally don’t think the Colts will do enough to stop Henry and pull off the sweep. MY PICK: Tennessee Titans +3.
New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos (+6)
Both the New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos are coming off big wins last week. The Saints were without quarterback Drew Brees for the first time this season. Taysum Hill started an NFL game at quarterback for the first time in his career. Fortunately for him, it was at home against a struggling Falcons. Sunday will be the first road game of his career. He is going against a Broncos pass rush that is ranked in the top 10 in sacks. The Saints must get Alvin Kamara more involved in the offense overall than he was last week. Michael Thomas came back strong last week and will need to come through again if the Saints are going to win.
The Broncos defense is 3rd in the NFL in quarterback pressure percentage, and they will need to continue that against Hill if they have any chance of a win this week. The Broncos running game got back on track last week however they are facing the best defense against the run this season. Drew Lock has struggled at times this year but has also shown a few glimpses of being a good NFL quarterback. He will look to get his weapons involved early in the game. Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Noah Fant will look to improve on their game last week against the Dolphins. To win this game the Broncos will need to play one of their best games this season.
The Saints are 5-5 against the spread and 2-2 ATS away from the Superdome. The Broncos are 6-4 against the spread and 3-2 ATS at home. The Saints will have some success simply because they have the offensive weapons. The Broncos will have a tough game but will they do enough to win the game. The Broncos will do enough to stay in the game but not win the game. MY PICK: Denver Broncos +6.
Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles (+5)
The Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles are two teams whose trajectories are going in completely different directions. The Seahawks defense is not what it used to be however that might not matter much in this game. On the offensive side of the ball, Russell Wilson has not had a great last few weeks but that also correlates with Chris Carson being out of the lineup the last four games. With Carson on track to play on Monday night, I am expecting Wilson to have a bounce back game. Carlos Hyde came back last week and with the addition of Carson, the running game should be successful against an Eagles defense that is ranked 25th against the run. And if that happens that will open up the game for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Seahawks will score points in this game for sure just like they have been doing almost all year long. To be competitive in this game the Eagles will have to exploit a Seahawks dense that is ranked dead last in the NFL against the pass. The Eagles concern will be if Carson Wentz can be successful this week against that porous pass defense. Wentz has thrown 14 interceptions this season which is the worst in the NFL. Rookie wide receivers Travis Fulgham and Jalen Reagor will need to produce for the Eagles to even have a chance. But with the way the passing game has been going, running back Miles Sanders might be one player who will shine the brightest on Monday night.
The Seahawks 6-4 against the spread and 2-3 ATS on the road. The Eagles on the other hand are 3-7 against the spread and 2-3 ATS at home. Normally the Eagles have a massive home-field advantage but due to COVID-19 that is not the case this season. Wentz will have to perform to get the win, and unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening. Look for Russell Wilson to have a good game and lead the Seahawks to victory. MY PICK: Seattle Seahawks -5.
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