NFL Week 2 Draftkings Pickem Plays – 9/17/2017

The Draftkings Pickem format that was introduced in Week 1 was very successful, in my opinion.  Unfortunately, I did not win the $100k first place prize, but I had a profitable week as I hope you did too reading my Week 1 article.  I believe it’s still a worthwhile read even after the slate, because I gave some insightful game theory tips that can be used in the future.  For those who don’t know what the new pickem game is, here’s what I said in my intro last week:

Draftkings has unveiled a new dfs format for the NFL season.  The new Pickem games are much simpler than the salary-based contests we’re used to.  There are 8 tiers of 8 different players in each, and you roster 1 player per tier; it’s as easy as that.  I believe this is going to be a fun new game-type that should attract a more general football audience.  Without being able to differentiate with unique lineup construction by paying down at QB, punting at Tight End, or making a stars and scrubs lineup, many people will be entering nearly identical teams in GPPs.  Ownership is sure to be heavily focused on a few players, meaning just a few simple pivot plays can result in massive leverage against the field.

I wanted to briefly discuss Week 1, but figured this breakdown of each tier’s ownership percentages and fantasy points did the job for me.  To make a long story short: FADE THE CHALK.  Sorry for screaming, but I will be repeating this message every week.  Other than Matt Ryan (who only outscored Aaron Rodgers by 0.4), no player who led his respective tier was over 13% owned in the large $3 GPP.

Now lets dive into the tiers for Week 2…

Tier 1

Matt Ryan; Aaron Rodgers; Philip Rivers; Derek Carr; Ben Roethlisberger; Drew Brees; Tom Brady; Russell Wilson

Like I said last week, QB is the position I have the least conviction on and think it should be the last two spots you fill in your pickem lineups.  I prefer, when possible, to have the QB correlate to at least one other spot in my lineup.  Obviously that does not always work if the receivers aren’t in the tier player pool.  This week is no different, and I’m sorry.  Matt Ryan is my favorite overall play, edging out Aaron Rodgers because of the new stadium crowd noise, and Tom Brady because the Patriots will probably have 5 Mike Gillislee touchdowns after end zone pass interference calls.  It is a very slim margin as you can see, but Ryan should also see less pickem ownership than the others.  Play your tier 1 qb based on the rest of said team.

Tier 2

Alex Smith; Carson Wentz; Marcus Mariota; Dak Prescott; Cam Newton; Kirk Cousins; Carson Palmer; Jameis Winston

I would not be surprised if any of the tier 1 guys finished as the top overall QB, but in tier 2 it’s a different story.  The two main plays from this group I will be using are Kirk Cousins and Carson Palmer.  The Redskins were atrocious trying to run the football last week, and now face a tougher run defense traveling to the Los Angeles Rams.  As a road underdog, Kirk Cousins should see the right gamescript for 40+ pass attempts and leads to one of my favorite stacks of the week with Terrelle Pryor.  Carson Palmer laid a dud in Week 1, and will now be without star running back, David Johnson, and deep threat, John Brown.  The good news is the Cardinals have a matchup with the Colts, one of the worst defenses in the NFL (26th pass DVOA, 32nd run DVOA).  Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald stacks for all the money.  Also, Jameis Winston paired with Desean Jackson is a viable stack in GPPs, which I wrote more about in tier 7.

Tier 3

Antonio Brown; LeSean McCoy; Jordy Nelson; Amari Cooper; David Johnson; Brandin Cooks; Julio Jones; LeVeon Bell

Last week I was all about Julio Jones, and if I replaced all those teams with Antonio Brown I would not have gone to work this week.  Unfortunately, I don’t learn from my mistakes, so I’ll be fading Brown again.  At least this time he is in a difficult matchup with shutdown corner Xavier Rhodes.  Julio will be the chalk, and he’s a lock and load cash game play…don’t overthink it.  In GPPs my favorite pivots are Le’Veon Bell and Jordy Nelson.  Bell, similar to Shady last week, is going to get overlooked in this tier.  The Steelers would be wise to not mess with Bell’s touches this week as this isn’t the Cleveland Browns.  The Vikings aren’t a plus matchup for running backs, but the Saints RBs combined for 9 receptions on 11 targets, so maybe the Steelers can exploit something with Bell in the pass game.  With Brown covered by Rhodes, I expect big days for Bell and Martavis Bryant.  Jordy Nelson is likely to go low owned compared to his counterpart in the Sunday Night Football game, Julio Jones.  Nelson is matchup proof, as the Packers scheme to get Rodgers’ go-to receiver open in space.  When he’s on the field, the Packers are a completely different team.  I will have plenty of Rodgers to Nelson stacks in my pickem GPPs.

Tier 4

Kareem Hunt; Ezekiel Elliott; Ty Montgomery; Melvin Gordon; Michael Crabtree; Devanta Freeman; Michael Thomas; Mike Evans

I am most interested to see how ownership ends up in tier 4.  Ty Montgomery is the uber chalk in classic salary games, but that factors in his cheap price tag relative to his role.  In pickem, he’s “priced” on the same tier as Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon, but I think people will still flock to TyMont.  This means we will get suppressed ownership on 30+ touch upside backs Zeke and Gordon in solid matchups.  I really don’t have much more to add about this tier, so play Zeke and Melvin.

Tier 5

Tyreek Hill; Leonard Fournette; Todd Gurley; Larry Fitzgerald; Marshawn Lynch; Doug Baldwin; Rob Gronkowski; Jay Ajayi

Larry Fitzgerald’s 13.4 fantasy points last week were “disappointing” to the 30%+ of us that played him in GPPs last week.  However, his 13 targets (2nd in NFL) and 144 air yards (4th) say that he was close to having a monster game.  While many of the unhappy Fitz owners in Week 1 will walk away, it’s time to double down.  Without David Johnson and John Brown, there are 18 Week 1 targets that will not be on the field in Week 2.  Fitz’s matchup in the slot against Nate Hairston is the same one that Cooper Kupp went for 4-76-1.  If Kupp can do that in first first NFL game, what can Fitz do in his 1,000,000th game?  I think Rob Gronkowski will be the chalk of the tier and I only want to play him in Patriots/Saints game stacks as a correlation play.  The other player I have some interest in is Tyreek Hill.  I have never played Hill on a full DFS slate before, because I think there’s regression coming from these 50+ yard touchdowns he seems to score every week.  However, I don’t think it’s coming here against the Eagles.  Andy Reid showed creativity to get the football in the hands of his best players against the Patriots, and I think this week will be no different…except the Eagles have horrible cornerbacks.  With Ronald Darby out, the Eagles are back to the dumpster fire corners from a year ago.  I think Tyreek could break the slate, and I will have some teams with him out of FOMO.

Tier 6

Stefon Diggs; Randall Cobb; Jordan Howard; Jeremy Maclin; Terrelle Pryor; Demaryius Thomas; Demarco Murray; Devante Adams

Per my Week 2 stacks article, I am higher on Randall Cobb than Devante Adams.  I think Cobb will draw more ownership after last week, but I will still play mostly Cobb in tier 6 with my Sunday Night Football stacks.  I also wrote about Terrelle Pryor in my stacks article, so it’s clear that he’s one of my other favorite plays.  Pryor’s 166 air yards were second in the NFL (Airyards.com), meaning he’s seeing both volume and high upside opportunities.  His matchup isn’t as great against Trumaine Johnson as in Week 1, but Cousins will get him the ball (I like that stack a lot).  The last player I’m interested in for tier 6 is Stefon Diggs.  I do think he will be the most popular player in this tier after the show he put on Monday night, but I’m very interested in the Vikings/Steelers game as a pivot off the Patriots/Saints and Packers/Falcons games.  A Roethlisberger/Bell/Diggs stack would be incredibly low owned and has GPP winning upside.

Tier 7

Mike Gillislee; Dalvin Cook; Zach Ertz; Christian McCaffrey; Bilal Powell; Chris Hogan; Desean Jackson; Jarvis Landry

The first thing that stuck out to me in this tier is out of the 4 running backs, only Dalvin Cook has a near workhorse role.  Going up against a decent but not great Steelers run defense (11th in 2016 DVOA), Cook should see the volume, targets, and red zone work to make him the clear top rb in the tier.  Adam Schefter reported on Friday that Sam Bradford had an MRI on his knee and there are concerns.  He is still expected to go on Sunday, but that makes me even more bullish on the Vikings run game and Dalvin Cook.  Chris Hogan will garner ownership and might even be the most popular play from this tier.  I think he is a great play this week, and will be stacked in my Tom Brady lineups.  Desean Jackson is a low volume, high upside play for GPPs that should see a few deep shots from Jameis Winston.  The Bears have been great at limiting top opposing receivers, so Jackson could be in line for a big game if Winston doesn’t force the ball to a covered Mike Evans, which he still might.  Pairing Jackson with Winston could be a GPP winning move this week.

Tier 8

Keenan Allen; Pierre Garcon; Isaiah Crowell; T.Y. Hilton; Dez Bryant; Kelvin Benjamin; Devante Parker

The chalk in tier 8 will be Keenan Allen.  He is under priced in the classic salary contests, so that ownership is likely to spill into the Pickem games.  I do believe he is the best play, but there are two GPP pivots for me: Pierre Garcon and T.Y. Hilton.  Last week, Garcon was the most popular play of tier 8 and had the 2nd most points.  This was in an always-trailing game script against the Panthers.  The Niners are likely to be in a similar situation as 14 point road underdogs in Seattle.  Just like with Cobb last week, we can target slot receivers for volume against the Seahawks Legion of Boom secondary.  Garcon saw 10 targets in Week 1, and could see double digit targets once again in Week 2.  Hilton is definitely not a high upside play these days without Andrew Luck, but when you are looking at the landscape of this tier, he can certainly have the most raw fantasy points.  Hilton’s 33% share of the Colts overall targets was 3rd in the NFL in Week 1.  So if we expect a full game of Jacoby Brissett to be more useful than any amount of Scott Tolzien (and yes, we do), then we can at least expect some PPR volume for T.Y. in a bad matchup against the Cardinals.  Remember, the player doesn’t have to have a good game…he just has to beat the other 7 in his tier!

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter.  I would love to hear more thoughts on this new Pickem format.

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