Welcome back for the week 5 edition of my NFL FanDuel Value picks. Last week we saw Stafford and Gurley each reach the 3x + value threshold that we shoot for each week. Will Dissly also checked in at 2.8x value. This week we will look to try and exploit some bad defenses on our way to finding the best value plays available.
Quarterback:
Kyler Murray @ CIN ($7,400) – Through 4 weeks, the number 1 overall pick has put up above average fantasy numbers, averaging 19.03 FDP’s per game. He will be looking to score well above that this week on the road at Cincinnati. The winless Bengals have struggled stopping anyone this year allowing an average of 27.5 points each week. Kyler is the cornerstone of the Cardinals offense, accounting for nearly 47 attempts (passing & rushing) per game. Expect a big week from Murray.
Tom Brady @ WAS ($7,600) – Brady and the Patriots get back on their cakewalk tour this week as they head to D.C. to face the Redskins. After a close call last week, Brady will want to get back on track with a dominate performance against a very bad defense who ranks 28th in the league. Brady needs only 22.8 FDP’s for 3x value, which seems like a very attainable number in week 5.
Running Back:
David Montgomery @ OAK ($5,700) – The rookies touches have increased in nearly all 4 weeks games he has played in his young career, and I expect that trend to continue this weekend in London. The Bears will face off against a below average Raiders squad who give up nearly 26 points each week. Fire up the rookie RB with confidence this week.
David Johnson @ CIN ($6,800) – A great stacking option this week, DJ (and Kyler) should take full advantage against the previously mentioned Bengals defense. Not only has Johnson been very effective in the run game, he caught 8 passes for 99 yards in last weeks contest. Look for DJ to make an impact in more ways than one against Cincinnati.
Wide Receiver:
Auden Tate vs ARZ ($5,300) – Tate will be the beneficiary of the injuries to the Bengals WR core, as he will get the starting nod alongside Tyler Boyd this week vs Arizona. The Bengals have been a disaster for the most part this season but the Cardinals have been bad as well. The 0-3-1 Cardinals give up 28.8 ppg (29th in NFL) and 271 passing yards per game (23rd). The big-bodied Tate will look to make his presence felt on Sunday.
Phillip Dorsett II @ WAS ($5,400) – Dorsett is the #3 WR in New England but it doesn’t seem to matter as he is receiving just under 6 targets per game. At this price and with this matchup, Dorsett is a prime candidate for a big game. As previously stated, the Redskins are struggling heavily and the Patriots are looking for a big bounce back game after an ugly performance last week. Look for Brady to airing it out and Dorsett to have a productive day.
Tight End:
Tyler Eifert vs ARZ ($4,600) – Each week it seems whatever TE is facing the Cardinals, ends up on my value picks article. This week it happens to be Tyler Eifert who is due for a big game. Last week he tied his season high in receptions and yards, albeit only 5 catches for 27 yards. The Cardinals are terrible stopping tight ends though, especially in the red zone. Eifert has a great chance to find the end zone this week in the battle of two winless franchises.
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Dawson Knox @ TEN ($4,800) – The rookie has been a pleasant surprise for the Bills thus far into the 2019 campaign. In week 5, he will have an average matchup against a middle of the pack Titans team. 14.4 FDP’s is the magic number for him to hit 3x value this week, and he should get plenty of opportunities with fellow TE Tyler Kroft already ruled out.
Defense:
New England Patriots ($5,500) @ WAS – Maybe the least surprising pick of the article, the New England Patriots as my defense/special teams play. The pats D/ST is averaging an eye-popping 21.5 FDPPG through 4 weeks and are sitting at a price of $5,500. That in itself is 3.9x value right there. Sure to be the highest owned D/ST of the week, I think the Patriots are the no brainer play here.
Follow me @ColeWilczek on Twitter for more and be sure to check back next week. Good Luck!
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