NFL Week 7 Draftkings Pickem Plays – 10/22/2017

No intro this week, right to business.

Tier 1

Todd Gurley; Leonard Fournette; LeSean McCoy

It has become difficult to choose between the elite running backs this season, because most are matchup proof seeing passing game work.  Todd Gurley‘s usage has been a bit worrisome the last two weeks, as his passing game involvement has shrunk to just 3 targets total the past 2 weeks after seeing 12 the prior 2 games.  The Cardinals have the 4th ranked run defense by DVOA, so it’s not an ideal matchup if Gurley’s not seeing the targets.  Leonard Fournette has a great matchup against the Colts as a road favorite.  Fournette got hurt last week which opened up the door to 10 targets for Chris Ivory.  Fournette’s expected to be ready to go Sunday, but I would not be surprised if they give Ivory decent run if they get out to a sizable lead.  LeSean McCoy is in a similar situation to what I said about Mark Ingram last week.  He might be disappointing fantasy owners so far, but has yet to score a touchdown and is showing us a 10-15 point floor.  His passing game involvement is what makes Shady my favorite play in this tier, as he saw 9 targets in his last game with Charles Clay going down.  McCoy will be the most popular player of the week in salary contests, so I expect that to carry over to Pickem.

Tier 2

Larry Fitzgerald; Mike Evans; Michael Thomas

I love Michael Thomas as a player, but haven’t really been on him this season.  I’ve been waiting for this matchup and just praying that he doesn’t go off the first 6 weeks.  He has a pair of touchdowns on the season, but has yet to break 100 yards receiving.  It does hurt that Aaron Rodgers won’t be playing, because game script could get away from the Saints passing game; last week showed us the Saints are content running the football with Mark Ingram and not forcing Drew Brees to throw 40 times a game.  Michael Thomas was relatively popular around 15% in tournaments last week against Darius Slay and the Lions, but put up a brutal 3 receptions for 11 yards on just 6 targets (all easily season lows).  I was not one of the people burned by Thomas last week, so I’m hoping recency bias keeps people off him against the Packers secondary that allowed 5-108 to Julio Jones, 10-111-1 to A.J. Green,  and 5-52-1 to Dez Bryant.  The Packers defensive backs are bad to begin with, but Quinten Rollins is done for the season, Kevin King is dealing with a concussion, and Devon House has a hamstring injury.  Playing or not, the Packers are hobbling into this game, so look for Michael Thomas to have his biggest game of the season if Brett Hundley can keep this game competitive throughout.  Mike Evans can still have a ceiling game, but between Ryan Fitzpatrick most likely being the QB and a tough matchup against Football Outsiders’ #3 pass defense by DVOA, I’m comfortable fading him.  Larry Fitzgerald is in play every week as he’s superhuman.  I don’t really have much to say about Fitz, so make sure to play some, but I like Thomas more when you factor in ownership.

Tier 3

Cam Newton; Carson Palmer; Drew Brees; Jameis Winston; Marcus Mariota

Here’s a list of which QBs I like in this tier and who I’ll be stacking them with:

Drew Brees: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb

Carson Palmer: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Todd Gurley

Marcus Mariota: Rishard Matthews

Tier 4

Jared Goff; Josh McCown; Tyrod Taylor; Blake Bortles; Brett Hundley

Here’s a list of which QBs I like in this tier and who I’ll be stacking them with:

Jared Goff: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Todd Gurley

Tyrod Taylor: LeSean McCoy

Brett Hundley: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb

Tier 5

Mark Ingram; Jarvis Landry; Adam Thielen; Kelvin Benjamin; Jerrick McKinnon; Adrian Peterson

Tier 5 has 3 players I love this week (and last week for that matter): Mark Ingram, Jarvis Landry, and Adam Thielen.  I’m mostly on the Saints passing game in this one, so I do favor Kamara to Ingram, but I’ll be hedging with Ingram on the teams I don’t stack Brees.  Ingram now has a defined role as the lead back with goal line work on a high powered offense; he’s in play every week.  Last week I was shocked at how low owned Jarvis Landry was without DeVante Parker playing.  Landry saw 14 of Jay Cutler‘s 33 targets last week for 8 receptions, 62 yards, and a touchdown.  He was also credited with 3 drops, so he could have had a monster game.  If Parker misses another game, get some Landry exposure as he has the most exploitable matchup for the Dolphins against slot corner Buster Skrine.  Adam Thielen, like Landry, had no Stefon Diggs last week and came away with 13 targets, 9 receptions, and 97 yards.  He dropped a 60 yard hail mary to end the half that would have broken the slate, but we move on.  The matchup isn’t ideal against the #2 ranked pass defense by DVOA Baltimore Ravens, but he should be peppered with targets once again in the slot.  On a PPR site like Draftkings, give me the non-flashy guys like Thielen and Landry who should see 10+ low aDOT targets and 8+ receptions.

Tier 6

Stefon Diggs; Jordan Howard; Christian McCaffrey; Jordy Nelson; T.Y. Hilton; DeVante Parker; Jay Ajayi; Demarco Murray

Stefon Diggs, DeVante Parker, and Demarco Murray all could miss this weekend, so make sure to keep up with the injury reports.  I have interest in Jordan Howard if Luke Kuechly is unable to go this weekend.  There’s some sharp reverse line movement on the Bears and the under in this Bears/Panthers game, so maybe that’s telling us that Kuechly is more on the doubtful side of questionable.  Howard saw 36 carries for 167 yards against the Ravens last week…..and no one’s talking about him this week.  He could be a great overlooked play in this tier.  I also like Jordy Nelson in game stacks, because Hundley’s gonna have to throw it somewhere, right?  I am a believer in the Saints defense being improved, but it’s still a middle of the road defense that shouldn’t be feared.  I think Jordy moves around the formation enough to get 8+ targets, and he’s always the Packers best bet to score a touchdown.

Tier 7

Doug Martin; Davante Adams; Ty Montgomery; Alvin Kamara; Devin Funchess; Austin Seferian-Jenkins; Delanie Walker; Rishard Matthews

Tiers 7 and 8 have a bunch of guys that are in play every week, so I’m going to start highlighting just my favorite plays.  Just know that doesn’t mean I won’t have exposure to the other guys.  Alvin Kamara was somewhat popular last week, but Ingram stole the show in New Orleans.  He didn’t have a bad game though, with 10 carries for 75 yards and 4 catches on 4 targets for 12 yards.  This was his lowest target total of the season (his entire career), but if we think the Packers hang in this game Kamara should see more work.  Stacking Brees with Kamara could be sneaky with people not wanted to stack quarterbacks with running backs.  You play him the same way you play Christian McCaffrey hoping for the 50+ yard touchdown that he’s more than capable of pulling off against a Packers defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA against RBs out of the backfield.  My other favorite play in this tier is Rishard Matthews.  Most are talking about Delanie Walker because of how bad the Browns are against tight ends, but since the off-season I’ve been avoiding Walker with the new weapons the Titans brought in.  He hasn’t had more than 4 receptions in a game since Week 1 and has a total of 2 red zone looks though 6 games.  His highest Draftkings week is 8.1 points.  I will gladly fade chalk Walker and turn to his teammate Matthews.  I understand he will get the same matchup that limited DeAndre Hopkins to 2 receptions last week, but also gave up 11-182 to Antonio Brown, 7-153-1 to T.Y. Hilton, and 5-63-1 to A.J. Green in a blowout.  I will continue to target #1 receivers against the Browns.

Tier 8

Cameron Brate; Duke Johnson; Jermaine Kearse; Desean Jackson; Randall Cobb; John Brown; Cooper Kupp; Sammy Watkins

Randall Cobb should be the safety net for Hundley this week.  I love targeting tight ends when there’s an inexperienced QB playing, but Martellus Bennett can’t seem to catch the football this season or put together consistent games.  I can envision a game where Cobb sees 10+ high percentage targets and racks up PPR points going up against Kenny Vaccaro in the slot, who I can’t confirm if he’s an orange traffic cone or a human being.  Vaccaro is ranked 107 out of 108 cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus.  I also really like John Brown.  He’s back to full health and has 26% of the Cardinals’ air yards (highest on the team).  The Rams rank 24th in explosive pass plays according to Sharp Football Stats, so there’s potential for Smokey Brown to break a couple long ones.

Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0

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