NFL Week 7 Last Call Premium Play or Forget About it

“I wish I could say something classy and inspirational, but that just wouldn’t be our style. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory…lasts forever.” ~Shane Falco And with those immortal words we are onto Week 7 of our fantasy season, and for most leagues this is the halfway point, if we were playing baseball, we would do the seventh inning stretch and grab a beer. Not here. Here we are going to fix ourselves an Old Fashion, contemplate the meaning of life, and play the hell out of this fantasy football game!

Points to remember for Week 7, two teams are on their bye week, the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys. Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, and Cam Akers will be wearing different jerseys this week, Adams is with the New York Jets, Cooper the Buffalo Bills, and Akers the Minnesota Vikings (which may speak loudly to Aaron Jones’ hip injury).

Monitor the status of players coming off injuries on teams coming off their bye week, Cooper Kupp, and De’Von Achane, and remember that there will be another early International Game this week, the Jacksonville Jaguars v the New England Patriots, both have players worth looking into, Evan Engram is back and looking like the target hog (10 targets and 102 receiving yards last week) and Drake Maye could be an interesting DFS play, as this defense is way more inefficient than the defense he faced last week, where he threw for 243 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.

But for now, let’s grab our Old Fashion and get our premium, well and mat calls for this week, first the drink.

Autumn Old Fashion from Delish

You Need

½ ounce apple cider

1 tsp dark brown sugar

2 dashes of Angostura bitters

1 ½ ounce of Bourbon or Rye

For Garnish

1 thin apple slice

1 cinnamon stick

1-star anise pod

You Will

1. In your mixing glass combine the cider, brown sugar, and bitters. Stir until the sugar has dissolved
2. Fill the mixing glass with ice and add your Bourbon or Rye. Stir until chilled, about 15 seconds.
3. Strain into rocks glass over fresh ice. Garnish with the apple slice, cinnamon stick, and star anise.

Cheers…now it’s time to think about that fantasy football lineup.

Premium Play, Geno Smith, Quarterback, Seattle Seahawks

First, let’s start with the obvious, this game total has ranged from 49.5 to 51 total points, with the Atlanta Falcons only a 2.5 to 3.0-point home favorite, so there should be lots of scoring.

Smith for his part leads the league in passing attempts (251) which roughly equals 41.8 passing attempts per game and passing yards 1778, which is roughly (check my math) 296.3 yards per game. In addition, the Seahawks are third in plays per game at 65.8 and while Atlanta meanders by in 18^th with 60.7 plays per game, there is no reason to believe Smith won’t get his.

This brings us to his playmakers, the Falcons play a generous amount of Cover-3 on defense, surprisingly running back Kenneth Walker is second on the team in target share against Cover-3 at 15%, and coming in first is disgruntled wide receiver D.K. Metcalf at 23%. Then to round out the receiving corps there is the veteran Tyler Lockett and the second-year Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Last week against the San Francisco 49ers, Lockett was on the field for a 79.2% snap share, an 81.1% route rate and was targeted eight times three of which were in the end zone. Smith-Njigba for the season is 10^th in targets (49) but is first in slot snaps (292), first in routes run (256), and first in route participation (100%).

And then there is Smith’s splits, although a small sample size as he has only played one game indoors so far this season and two away, he has done well in both:

	Attempts	Completion	Completion%	Yards	Average	TD	INT
Away	100	71	71%	722	7.2	2	1
Indoors	56	38	67.9%	395	7.1	1	1

Stats from ESPN

The Falcons are giving up an average of 193 passing yards per game, but teams have only attempted an average of 31.7 passes against them. They are mid-range on fantasy points to the quarterback position allowing 18.2 per game.

I feel pretty confident about playing Smith this week, but then again, I felt pretty confident about playing Daniel Jones last week,  and look where it got me.

Well Play, Sam Darnold, Quarterback, Minnesota Vikings

The last time we saw Darnold he was putting up 5.3 fantasy points across the Pond against the New York Jets. His stat line read 14-of-31 for 179 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception, it wasn’t pretty, but it also wasn’t indicative of what Darnold had been doing before that game. Before the Jets game, Darnold did not have fantasy points below 15, including 23.2 against the Houston Texans (where he threw for four touchdowns) and 21.5 against the Green Bay Packers (where he threw for three touchdowns). In fact, Darnold is fourth in passing touchdowns (11) and sixth in passer rating (103.4), and this has been accomplished without the end zone threat of tight end T.J. Hockenson (okay, yes so, he has all-world Justin Jefferson, I was just saying).

In this game, Darnold gets an extra bump with this matchup against the Detroit Lions having the second-highest total for the week (50.5) and Minnesota only being a 1.5 home favorite.

The Lions’ loss of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is monumental to their defensive front. Per PFF, Hutchinson was fifth in forced fumbles (1), 12^th in stops (12), first in sacks (8) the team has 11, first in hurries (29), first in hits allowed (8), and first in total pressures (45).

The Lions were allowing the fifth most passing yards per game (246.2) but only 15.2 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. In their last three games (excluding the massacre that was Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys) the Lions gave up exactly one touchdown and one interception to Geno Smith, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield, all with Hutchinson on the field, it remains to be seen how the defense will negotiate without him (send Maxx Crosby please) and if Darnold can take advantage of the gaping hole Hutchinson’s loss represents.

I say the pre-New York Jets Darnold is the one that will show up for this game.

Mat Play (or Just Don’t Do It) Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, New York Jets

75M in guaranteed cash.

Only thing guaranteed with Rodgers is dysfunction and an early playoff exit. pic.twitter.com/LJmmd8f4oC

— Daniel Phillips (@danielflips) October 17, 2024

And then there are the stats, this week the Jets will once again play a prime-time game, this one against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s forget the quarterback controversy in Pittsburgh between Mike Tomlin’s hedging on whether it will be Justin Fields or Russell Wilson under center (bonus points, if it is Wilson add him to your Mat Play) and concentrate on the Steelers’ defense against Rodgers. Adding Davante Adams should help the stagnation of the Jets’ offense, but mostly Rodgers will need to rely on his ability to get the ball out fast. He currently has the third-quickest release, throwing in 2.54 seconds, and on 55.4% of his dropbacks getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds. This is something he has to do to avoid Pro Football Focus’ second-highest pass rush led by T.J. Watt’s 4.5 sacks and 15 pressures and Cameron Heyward’s 3.0 sacks and 22 pressures.

So far this season Rodgers has been sacked 16 times and during a span of two games was hit 25 times.

A forty-year-old quarterback with leg issues whose mobility is suspect just sounds like a tasty morsel for the Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line.

“The luck is gone-the brain is shot-but the liquor we still got”~ from Cocktail

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