Nick Foles Flies Under the Fantasy Football Radar

If there was a Super Bowl MVP quarterback starting for a team that was surrounded by a talented group of young wide receivers and one of the best defenses in the NFL, the fantasy football world would be buzzing about him, right? Wrong.

Enter Nick Foles, the darling career backup that led the Eagles to a Super Bowl LII win and perfectly executed the Philly Special. He’s now a Jacksonville Jaguar, and that should matter to fantasy football gamers. Foles is currently being drafted as an afterthought at 195th overall (QB26) per FantasyPros. But any risk brought about by his ability as a starter, a largely unproven receiving corps and the presence of Leonard Fournette is baked right in at Foles’ current price tag.

For dynasty franchises that are a QB short of a title run, Foles can be acquired for next to nothing. He’s a solid QB2 option for two QB or superflex leagues, and his going rate is about the equivalent of a third-round rookie pick. For rebuilding franchises that are stockpiling picks, he offers a bridge to the future. In redraft formats, he’s a great late-round target if your draft strategy is to wait on a QB. It’s not often gamers find that kind of potential value in the 19th round.

Why Nick Foles Matters in Fantasy Football

After putting all their eggs in the Blake Bortles basket for the past five seasons the Jaguars came to their senses and released the former third overall pick of the 2014 NFL Draft. Two days prior, Jacksonville signed Foles to a four-year, $88 million deal. In terms of how committed a team is to its quarterback, that deal earned him ESPN’s No. 4 locked-in veteran ranking.

That’s a huge commitment to a quarterback with 44 career starts through seven NFL seasons. But Foles shows an uncanny knack for producing in the biggest moments. His playoff completion percentage (68.1) and QB rating (98.8) far outweigh his regular-season stats (61.6, 88.5). In addition to the aforementioned Super Bowl MVP award, Foles was a Pro Bowl selection in 2013 when he started 10 games. He threw for 2,891 yards on 317 attempts, with 27 TDs to two interceptions for a league-leading QB rating of 119.2.

So is Foles an upgrade from Bortles? According to Pro Football Reference, Foles has better career marks than Bortles in several key categories, including completion percentage (61.6-59.3); QB rating (88.5-80.6); yards per attempt (7.1-6.7) and interceptions per game (0.6-1.0).

The Competition is Young and Inexperienced

The Jaguars depth chart behind Foles includes Tanner Lee, Gardner Minshew and Alex McGough. They’ve combined to throw zero regular-season NFL passes. Minshew is this year’s sixth-round pick out of Washington State and figures to slot in as Foles’ backup. After the disaster that was Bortles, Jacksonville would be wise to take it slow with Minshew.

Lee is last year’s sixth-round pick from Nebraska who spent the season on the team’s practice squad. McGough was drafted by the Seahawks in the seventh round of the 2018 draft and promptly relegated to the practice squad. He signed a reserve/future contract with Jacksonville this offseason.

Need more convincing that Foles is the long-term answer for the Jags? Owner Shad Khan went so far as to say “Our dream was to get Nick Foles.” Now Foles needs to prove that dream won’t spiral into a nightmare, and he’s got the ability and talent around him to do it.

No. 1 Receiver Role Up For Grabs

As it stands the Jaguars lack a true No. 1 receiver, but are far from short on talent. One key for Foles’ success hinges on the emergence of a player who raises his game to elite status.

Veteran Marqise Lee (knee) missed the entire 2018 season but is still the team’s most seasoned receiver. He had back-to-back seasons of at least 56 receptions, 700 receiving yards and three TDs in 2016-17. However, that came while playing alongside Allen Robinson. Lee turns 28 this season, is coming off knee surgery, profiles more as a second option and has not produced at an elite level in the NFL.

Fourth-round pick Dede Westbrook and undrafted free agent Keelan Cole each have displayed an NFL skill-set but haven’t made the jump to light speed. Both players enter their third seasons with a chance to carve out a bigger role.

Cole regressed in 2018 (38-491-1) after catching 42 passes for 748 yards and three TDs in 2017. Westbrook, the Oklahoma product, was eased into action after landing on injured reserve (core) to start his rookie season. And while 2018 didn’t yield a breakout, he put up respectable numbers (66-717-5) despite catching passes from Bortles and Cody Kessler.

Both Westbrook (6-0, 178-pounds) and Cole (6-1, 194) were dominant in college, but keep in mind Cole played at Division II Kentucky Wesleyan. Cole’s college yards per reception (24.6) and dominator rating (60.7-percent) both rank at or above the 98th-percentile, according to PlayerProfiler. Westbrook earned a 19.1 college YPR (90th-percentile) and 38.2-percent dominator rating (76th-percentile).

But neither player impresses in terms of workout metrics, especially Cole, who did not receive a combine invite. His 40-yard dash time (4.64) fails to meet the minimum threshold for elite receivers. Cole also showed a propensity for bad hands, as his seven drops were tied for second-most in the league last season. Westbrook possesses the speed (4.44 40-yard dash) to beat defenses downfield. He also proved a worthy red zone target, garnering a 26.5-percent red zone target share (No. 14) in 2018.

A Charknado Watch Has Been Issued

It might be asking too much for a second-year player to claim the No. 1 role, but D.J. Chark sure looks the part. At 6-3, 199-pounds Chark has the prototypical build of an elite receiver. He also ranks in the 90th-percentile or above in 40-yard dash (4.34), college, YPR, speed score and agility score per PlayerProfiler. Chark saw 32 targets in his rookie season, so there’s not a large enough NFL sample to grade him on.

The second-round pick from LSU didn’t get much chance to operate as the Tigers’ No. 1 option but did post a solid senior season (40-874-3). He’s got the raw talent to make defenders look silly. His current ADP puts him at WR96, per FantasyPros. Gamers looking for a deep sleeper with upside should look no further than Chark.

Other Factors That Will Affect Foles

The 2017 Jaguars thrived on defense and feeding Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville led the league in rush attempts and boasted a top-five defense. That was a long time ago by NFL standards and Bortles’ play was a big factor that season. Fournette got the rock early and often. But the injury-prone back has never played a full season, perhaps due in part to the massive number of touches he gets.

Also worth noting is the overhaul of the staff under fourth-year coach Doug Marrone, including the addition of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. DeFilippo was fired from the same position by the Vikings last season due in part for his inability to get the run game going. However, Minnesota ranked No. 6 in pass attempts (606) under DeFilippo. While Jacksonville still has a top-five defense, it’s yet to be seen what kind of identity the Jaguars offense will have. I expect Jacksonville to be much less one-dimensional with DeFilippo as offensive coordinator, Foles under center and an array of weapons at receiver.

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