With free agency now mostly passed us by and almost all of the top free agents having landed in their respective homes it is now time to sort out the early favorites for each NFL division. Of course, these are still very early with the draft still to come, injuries no doubt expected to consume some in training camp, and surprise cuts or developments with each team. Nonetheless, I will take a stab at pointing out the favorites in each division as of the roster each team has right now.
AFC East
Favorite: New England Patriots
The Patriots once again are the favorites as they have arguably the best head coach and quarterback of all time and that will keep the going at their torrid pace of 12 win seasons, division titles, AFC Championship appearances, and Super Bowl appearances. They didn’t lose much, aside from Chandler Jones, and added Chris Long, Martellus Bennett, and Chris Hogan among others. This team will be the AFC East, and really the AFC Favorite until someone knocks them off the division title perch and we see some signs of slowing down. Until then there are no others considered or sleepers.
Others considered: none
Sleeper: none
AFC North
Favorite: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have a high-powered offense and should have an improving defense this upcoming season. The loss of deep threat and the uber talented Martavis Bryant will sting, but he is not the key to this offense. They will get Le’Veon Bell back from injury which should help as long as he can stay healthy (something he needs to prove), return the best receiver in football in Antonio Brown, and they signed tight end Ladarius Green away from the Chargers in what feels like an absolute steal. With Green finally out of the shadows of Antonio Gates, look for him to put up big numbers in Heath Miller‘s vacated tight end spot.
Others considered: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were considered, but I cannot move them to favorites with a team full of personalities waiting to blow up at any moment. Some games it won’t show up for them and they can look dominant, but during others, like the AFC Wild Card round, they can cost themselves big time. They also had big time losses with Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu departing.
Sleeper: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens cannot be as bad as they were last year when they were ravished by injury at nearly ever position. The Ravens have a solid run game, a motivated deep threat in Mike Wallace, and what has to the makings to be a solid, but not spectacular defense led by stud linebacker C.J. Mosley. They could make it tough on the Steelers and Bengals.
AFC South
Favorite: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts had a bad year last year, but do not overlook that Andrew Luck was under duress too much, Matt Hasselbeck played a significant amount of snaps and a mediocre defense, yet they still finished the season with a shot at the division crown and an 8-8 record. This year they get Luck back healthy and he should be more aware of the dangers of running through contact as a franchise quarterback. This division is not as bad as it was, but the Colts still have the most talent regardless of the other teams moves.
Others considered: Houston Texas
The Texans signed Brock Osweiler away from the Broncos in what could be one of the most ludicrous contracts handed out in a long time. Osweiler has potential, but did not even play a full season last year and then got replaced right before the playoffs (granted it wasn’t entirely his fault). The Texans still have a very good defense that should provide pressure, a number one receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, and some ascending young talent. They could make it tough on the Colts, and have a very real shot at the division.
Sleeper: Jacksonville Jaguars
This is one team I think really could surprise this year. This team has a ton of young talent, a developing young quarterback who seems poised to take the next step, two stud wideouts, a physical running back (FA signee Chris Ivory), solid tackle play (provided Kelvin Beachum can come back healthy), and an upgraded defense (FA’s DL Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara) for Gus Bradley to get creative with. Look out in the next year or two. They could win nine games.
AFC West
Favorite: Oakland Raiders
It seems strange to have the Super Bowl Champ outside of the top spot and at the hands of the Raider no less. However, that is how things have gone this offseason for the Broncos who lost their quarterback in waiting for Peyton Manning when Osweiler left for Houston. The Raiders have a strong young quarterback, some intriguing offensive weapons (looking at you TE Clive Walford) and an absolute stud on defense in Khalil Mack. This team is the favorite and I don’t even have to think twice about it.
Others considered: Denver Broncos
As mentioned above the Broncos have lost a lot. That is par for the course as everyone feasts on the winning team’s free agents hoping to capture the winning culture and abilities they showed in the championship run along the way. However, more concerning is that they have two left tackles are pretty good, but have missed significant amounts of time the last few seasons. This team is a mess on the offensive line, at the quarterback spot, and their depth has been thinned out on defense. Things can change fast, but this is not a playoff team. Heck, this may not even be an eight-win team.
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Sleeper: San Diego Chargers
The Chargers had some tough injury luck last year and it seems like that has been the case with their offensive line over the past few years which gets you wondering what is going on over there. Nonetheless, you cannot count out Phillip Rivers who is still a very good quarterback who has Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen returning, along with the versatile Danny Woodhead at tailback. This defense is still questionable, especially without Eric Weddle in the back-end, but they could surprise some people.
NFC East
Favorite: Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys were everyone’s favorite for this division last year until they suffered key injuries to Dez Bryant and Tony Romo and they should return to that status with their returns this year to full health. They have an elite offensive line that had some uncharacteristic struggles last season, but they should return to form this year. They had no real notable defections and gained a better back to run behind their rugged line in former division rival Alfred Morris. There are a lot of flaws on the teams in this division and the Cowboys have the best offensive line and quarterback that should be enough.
Others Considered: New York Giants
The Giants went on a free agent spending spree this offseason and signed Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, and Janoris Jenkins along with re-signing defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. This team should be improved and if Victor Cruz can regain his old form and stay healthy finally this offense could be special. There are a lot of variables for this team though and they have a subpar secondary and linebacking core. They are still a ways away.
Sleeper: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles finally signed their own free agents ending the max exodus that Chip Kelly had going in which the top players on the Eagles rarely ever saw a second contract with the team. They should be much stronger on offense with Doug Pederson implementing a better system that fits more of his players. Chase Daniel is an underrated factor here as he could really be a solid quarterback in this system.
NFC North
Favorite: Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers struggled last year, but that was more the doing of his receivers not being able to get separation from the corners. However, at the end of the season, they seemed to gain confidence and get better at that. This year they get star receiver Jordy Nelson back which should take some of the heat off Randall Cobb who got exposed at the end of last year as a second tier type receiver. The defensive line isn’t as good this year, but they added Jared Cook who could be very good in this offense if he can improve his consistency catching the ball. Rodgers loves the tight ends.
Others considered: Minnesota Vikings
Last year the Vikings surprised everyone with their division crown and what should have been a first-round playoff victory. This year they should be just as good if not better with more time to build a better offensive passing attack. Last year they forced too much to Mike Wallace, who seemed disinterested at times, and is not a very good route runner, but just really a speed guy. The problem is Bridgewater doesn’t have a great arm so they were not playing to his strengths. This year they should give the Packers everything they can handle.
Sleeper: none
NFC South
Favorite: Carolina Panthers
Last year’s Super Bowl runner-up has had a good offseason. They had no real defections, re-signed defensive end Charles Johnson on an extremely team-friendly deal, signed defensive tackle Paul Soliai for depth along the line, and took some low-cost flyers on corner Brandon Boykin and center/guard Gino Gradkowski. I like the moves because if it isn’t broke don’t fix it. This team won fifteen games and almost won the Super Bowl. They got great experience and should be back again this year, just not at 15-1.
Others considered: Atlanta Falcons
When I say I considered Atlanta it wasn’t a very long consideration. This team is not very good defensively other than at the corner position where Desmond Trufant is a stud and Robert Alford is right behind him, but the pass rush is pathetic and the linebacking play leaves something to be desired. They worked on protecting Matt Ryan more this offseason which is a smart play, but I don’t think they did enough to warrant serious consideration. Also noted Mohamed Sanu is a great fit for this offense as a number two but is overpaid.
Sleeper: none
NFC West
Favorite: Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals really needed a pass rusher who can create pressure on his own without the need for a blitz or scheme. This got exposed in the playoffs against Carolina not being able to get to Newton and letting him have all day. Enter Chandler Jones, who is not elite as a rusher, but is close to it. He should be better in Arizona with fewer responsibilities and more freedom to get after the passer. This team will be there in the playoffs due to their overall talent, but the questions remain about Carson Palmer‘s ability to perform in crunch time.
Others considered: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks had one real weakness last year. Their offensive line. They have not done anything to remedy that and have lost two players that started last year in Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy. All that being said losing Sweezy is more of a plus considering how bad he was last year. They did, however, keep Jeremy Lane which is a huge boost for their secondary which has been shaky without him recently. This defense will be elite again, but can Russell Wilson survive another beating and running for his life?
Sleeper: none
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