Picking the NBA Playoff Series

Finally after a long regular season in which there were a number of headlines, two of which came to a head on the final day of the regular season, the playoff field is set and the favorites have been identified. Going into the playoffs it is clear the Warriors are still the favorites to win the championship, after all, they have the reigning MVP (and most likely the MVP of this year as well), one of the best defensive players annually, and one of the best shooting guards in the game, along with a good in-game coach and the best regular season of all-time. However, there are teams that could make it challenging for them, with the Spurs who tied the best record at home in a regular season the favorite in that regard.

On the other side, the Cavaliers are the clear favorites despite the remarkable season put together by the Toronto Raptors in which they won 50 games for the first time in their franchise’s history. That being said there is a lot of depth in the middle of the Eastern Conference and that could make each series grueling for the Cavaliers.

 

Quarterfinals: East

(1) Cavaliers over (8) Pistons, 6 games

The Cavaliers are the clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference and head back to the NBA finals with a roster that has more depth than last year. The Pistons will pose problems though and have a number of wings they can throw at LeBron James, with Stanley Johnson a good fit athletically to give James fits. The Pistons also have an improved offense with Tobias Harris at the four, which will get them a couple of games, but the Pistons struggle with turnovers and consistency. Edge to Kyrie Irving and LeBron.

(5) Celtics over (4) Hawks, 6 games

This should be a fantastic series with both teams scoring at a high rate right now. The Celtics will be at a huge disadvantage with Isaiah Thomas having to cover the bigger Kyle Korver or the playmaking Jeff Teague on defense, but should be able to match up well with the rest of the Hawks roster despite their problems covering Paul Millsap in the regular season. The key will be how well Boston’s scorers other than Isaiah Thomas score the ball because as we saw last year, Thomas can be slowed down in the playoffs. In the end, Brad Stevens has a slightly deeper team and can play matchups.

(6) Hornets over (3) Heat, 6 games

This is really the only upset I see in the playoffs since I do not really consider the four and five seeds an upset. The Heat have a solid roster on paper but struggle mightily from behind the three-point line while the Hornets have been playing much better offensively this year in addition to their solid defense that has been a hallmark under head coach Steve Clifford. Kemba Walker has been playing very well this season improving his three-point shot and limiting his turnovers. The Hornets get the edge in this series for having people who matchup well with the Heat at every position and their ability to sag off and pack the paint.

(2) Raptors over (7) Pacers, 4 games

This series is one that I do not see lasting very long. The Pacers will remain competitive in games because Paul George is outstanding and he can take over games. However, this is the deepest Raptors team in a long time and Kyle Lowry has taken his game to another level. Terrence Ross will have a big series as well, providing big minutes off the bench and has been underrated defensively as well. Look for the Raptors to force the issue offensively and unless the Pacers can get big-time play out of rookie Myles Turner, especially with his perimeter shooting, they should close this out fast.

Quarterfinals: West

(1) Warriors over (8) Rockets, 4 games

Point blank this series will be over fast. James Harden will score a bunch because he is a good player and Patrick Beverley will provide tough defense on Stephen Curry, but the Rockets are not the team they were last year and they have chemistry and team issues that go deeper than the basketball court. Credit head coach J.B. Bickerstaff for getting this team in the playoffs, but they lack intensity on the offensive and defensive end. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green should have huge series.

(4) Clippers over (5) Trail Blazers, 6 games

This series would have been a lot more entertaining if Blazers forward Meyers Leonard had stayed healthy giving them a viable option defensively to protect the paint and stretch the floor on offense. Nonetheless, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will win a couple because of their dynamic ability to score the ball, but Chris Paul is no slouch on defense either. J.J. Redick will be a real key here because they can run him off screens and wear down McCollum defensively limiting his offensive impact. The Blazers really need solid play out of Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis if they want to win this series.

(3) Thunder over (6) Mavericks, 5 games

Another series where one team has a significantly better team than their opponent. The Thunder have two of the top 10 players in the league and that should show in this series, especially with the Mavericks not having Chandler Parsons to go against Kevin Durant on defense. Deron Williams covering Russell Westbrook is as bad of a mismatch as there will be in the playoffs, but I will give the Mavericks one game because of how good a coach Rick Carlisle is as far as utilizing guys in certain situations that will maximize their talents and Dirk Nowitzki still playing well, but in the end, they have no answer for Westbrook.

(2) Spurs over (7) Grizzlies, 4 games

This is the easiest of the series to predict. Without Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, this is not the same team and they really have no chance to do anything other keep it under 10 in their two home games. The Grizzlies are a tough bunch and give head coach Dave Joerger credit for getting this bunch into the playoffs despite all the injuries, but their run ends early. The Spurs should be well rested going into the next round.

Semifinals: East

(1) Cavaliers over (5) Celtics, 6 games

This will be another grueling series for the Cavaliers as the Celtics will grind it out and make it tough on them. Unlike last year, Jae Crowder has expanded his game on offense and become more efficient, but the key is Evan Turner. If Turner can take the pressure off Thomas and create for others they can keep pace with the Cavs especially with how well they matchup with Cleveland on defense. Kelly Olynyk is also a key as he represents a huge problem for the Cavs. On the other side, the Cavs need to attack the glass and Tristan Thompson should be a star in this series as the Celtics are not a good rebounding team. They can also exploit Thomas on defense and those two things should be enough to get by Boston.

(2) Raptors over (6) Hornets, 5 games

As much as I liked the Hornets to pull the upset last round, I do not like them this round. Al Jefferson and Jonas Valanciunas is a good matchup for people who like offensively skilled and defensively limited big men, but they should each negate each other. Lowry will make life tough for Walker who is the straw that stirs the drink for the Hornets meaning they will need Nicolas Batum to create for their team to be successful on offense. The Hornets will keep this series interesting because they can limit the scoring, but Toronto is too good on the perimeter defensively with Lowry like a pit bull on opposing point guards.

Semifinals: West

(1) Warriors over (4) Clippers, 5 games

This series should be extremely entertaining as a game that should be very, very, very high-scoring. Paul versus Curry is a matchup that people should pay to see already, but throw in some very good shooting, a spaced floor on offense, and two very good coaches and this has all the makings of one of the best series in the playoffs. The real edge here for the Warriors is their ability to limit DeAndre Jordan‘s effectiveness by bringing him out of the paint where he is most comfortable. On the Clippers side, their advantage is on the glass where Jordan and Blake Griffin should clean up against the smaller Green and Harrison Barnes when he is on the floor as the stretch four. In the end, the Warriors have too many ways to score and the Clippers are not deep enough to prevent them.

(2) Spurs over (3) Thunder, 7 games

Another fantastic series in what was many people’s pick as the conference final at the beginning of the season. The Spurs got an easy first round opponent in the beaten up Grizzlies and that will show early on, as will the fact they have an extremely deep bench. The Thunder’s first-round series is definitely not too challenging either, though. This series should be tough for the Thunder because no matter what they throw at the Spurs, they can match it. The only player who has an advantage is Westbrook, who most likely will be covered by Danny Green to prevent Tony Parker from being the man covering him. Other than that Durant will be covered by Kawhi Leonard, who can limit his good looks. There is also the issue of Billy Donovan‘s in-game coaching which has been abysmal at times. Edge Gregg Popovich and the Spurs.

Conference Finals: East

(2) Raptors over (1) Cavaliers, 6 games

I know I am going against the grain here with the Raptors going to the NBA finals, but hey they are one of the best teams in the NBA believe it or not. Lowry’s improvements this season have been noticeable and his defense on Irving will be critical to the Raptors success. Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith will also be big pieces for the Cavs as they will need to contain DeMar DeRozan, who can be flat out dominant in getting inside the paint at times. The Raptors need to make three-pointers if they want to win, as well as control the defensive glass and avoiding giving the Cavs three-point shooters the good looks that come with an offensive rebound. The smart plan would be to make LeBron beat you and try to contain or shut down everyone else, something defensive-minded head coach Dwane Casey, surely realizes.

Conference Finals: East

(2) Spurs over (1) Warriors, 7 games

There will not be a better series than this one as these are clearly the two best teams in the NBA. In fact, Adam Stern should declare this series winner the champion. However, that will not happen, but we are still in for a treat. The Warriors experienced the Spurs “A” game when the Spurs beat them at home this season, but the Warriors answered the call the next time ending the Spurs home winning streak and keeping their dream alive for the 73 win season, something they eventually succeeded in doing. One x-factor in this series is can the Spurs limit the three-point shooting of the Warriors and make them take mid-range jumpers while also being able to spread the floor and effectively control the glass. Those are keys to beating the Warriors and everything needs to be perfect to beat them, but with Leonard blossoming this season into an All-NBA type player.

NBA Finals

(2) Spurs over (2) Raptors, 5 games

Not the dream finals everyone was dreaming about, but hey it can still be entertaining. Lowry should be able to get whatever he wants against Parker while DeRozan draws a much tougher matchup in Green, who is one of the better perimeter defenders. This could be a series that sees more post-up opportunities with Valanciunas and Aldridge, as well as Tim Duncan. However, the Spurs have way too much firepower and depth with David West, Patrick Mills, Kevin Martin, Duncan, and situational guys like Matt Bonner to put in at any moment. The Raptors backcourt will win them one game because of how easy they can make things for their teammates, but in the end the Spurs are too good defensively and they hoist another trophy.

 

 

 

 

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