2019 Fantasy Football Week 4 Buy Low/Sell High #FantasyFootball

Buy Low

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Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers – I no longer believe Rodgers is an elite fantasy quarterback, but much like one of his pass-catchers, he’s on the wrong end of touchdown variance this year, throwing just four touchdowns through three games. He has a touchdown rate of 4.3%, while his career average is 6.1%. Rodgers is more likely a low-end QB1 this year, but seeing him rank behind players like Case Keenum, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, and Gardner Minshew II in total fantasy points, leads me to believe there is a buying opportunity.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette – There has been debate since early in his rookie season whether Fournette is good at football. While I’m not convinced he and elite running back, I do know his workload is elite. Through three games, Fournette has played 94.4% of the running back snaps for the Jaguars and ranks 5th in the NFL in running back targets. He’s a buy low due to poor efficiency and the fact that he hasn’t scored yet this year. Add a few touchdowns to his volume, and you still have a low-end RB1 or a solid RB2.

Also buy: Le’Veon Bell, Joe Mixon

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams – After leading the NFC in wide receiver touchdowns last season, Adams has yet to score this year. Based on fantasy points scored through three weeks, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is actually the WR1 in Green Bay. While Valdes-Scantling has matched Adams’ targets this year, I still believe Adams is the clear WR1 in Green Bay. It’s still not out of the realm of possibilities that Adams finishes the season with double-digit touchdowns. I’ll buy before the scoring begins as a solid/lower end WR1.

Tight End

Travis Kelce/Zach Ertz – The theme of the buy-lows this week as been quality players who haven’t scored through three weeks. While Kelce has one touchdown, his OTD (basically expected touchdowns, via ESPN’s Mike Clay) is 2.1, meaning he’s been on the wrong side of touchdown variance. Kelce has been almost impossible to buy, but I’d at least check in with the Kelce owner and see what he costs.

Ertz isn’t nearly as good as Kelce, but he’s significantly easier to acquire. He’s seen 30 targets through three weeks, but hasn’t scored and averages only 12.7 PPR points per week. Ertz needs volume to be relevant as he lacks explosive play upside, but his target volume is enough for me to buy him before he starts scoring.

Bonus

It’s time to buy handcuffs. I’ve mentioned it before, but once bye weeks hit, owners start dumping running back handcuffs. Whenever I see I high-upside handcuff hit waivers, I pick them up. At this point of the year, it’s a great time to send a low offer to an owner of a high-upside handcuff to see if they’ll part with him as the bye weeks hit. Target players like Chase Edmonds, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Jaylen Samuels, Latavius Murray, Gus Edwards, etc.

Sell High

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Quarterback

I don’t see any quarterbacks as clear sell-highs this week. Case Keenum, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, and Gardner Minshew II rank higher in total fantasy points than I currently value them, however, it’s difficult to get any return for these players. This is more of a hold/buy week rather than a sell week at the quarterback position.

Running Back

Mark Ingram – Off of his three-touchdown game, Ingram just screams sell. He currently ranks as the overall RB5 in PPR leagues, but averages 16.3 opportunities (carries+targets) per game and just two targets per game. The rest of the top 12 running backs average 21.9 opportunities and none of them have a lower overall touch count than Ingram. He’s scoring a touchdown on every 8.6 rushing attempts while his career average is every 27.3 attempts. I’m selling Ingram, especially in PPR leagues for a top 10 back who has higher volume and is less dependent on touchdowns.

Wide Receiver

DJ Chark – Chark currently ranks as the WR8 and has a touchdown in every game this year. His target counts are 4, 9, and 5 (18 total) through three games, leading me to believe he doesn’t have the volume to sustain his production. The rest of the top 12 receivers average 29.1 targets throughout the first three weeks. I’ve seen some chatter about Chark as a top 20 receiver, but I still value him as a WR3/4 or a flex. Sell before his touchdowns disappear.

Bonus

This is the time of year where novice owners start to think defensive scoring is repeatable. While I believe the Patriots defense is elite and one of the top defense, I also believe you can return the same value by streaming defenses. Start shopping the Patriots defense and see what skill position players you can acquire.

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